By Bronco, SyriaComment
28 May 2012
Russia has decided to change the international perception that it blindly supports Bashar Al Assad and his regime. It is now coming out with more ambiguous declarations that are immediately picked up and stripped from their context by the media to be presented in sentences like these” Russia condemn Syria’, “Russia ready to dump Bashar Al Assad”, “Russia is distancing from Bashar al Assad”
Russia’s strategy seems to work as now Russia does not appear as a biased and blind support of the Syrian regime and therefore could gain more acceptance from the Syrian opposition and the international community.
In perspective, Russia has succeeded in transforming the ‘regime change’ plan concocted by Qatar, Turkey and the SNC into a ‘peace plan’ under UN control that includes a dialog between the opposition and the Syrian regime.
Russia is now working on the next step which is to eliminate any opposition group that refuses the dialog with the regime.
The SNC is dead, The Friends of Syria too, the supporters of the hardline, France, is weaker. Turkey is isolated as even Qatar and Saudi have calmed down from verbal attacks on Bashar al Assad.
The aim of the Russians now is to evaluate the FSA capabilities and willingness to take over the opposition representation and move into the dialog part of the six-point Annan plan.
If the FSA shows its acceptance of that role, than Russia will lower its rhetoric on Bashar Al Assad as to gain the trust of the FSA.
In view of the new tone of Russia toward Bashar, I think the step two has started. More pressure is being applied both to the FSA and to Bashar to accept the dialog with the FSA as part of the opposition.
Of course elements loyal to the SNC and its sympathizers as well as some die hard within the Syrian regime are trying to prevent this dialog to happen. Bombs attacks and the massacre in Al Houla are part of these attempts to derail the plan.
Contrary to the USA, Russia’s strategy has been well thought and consistent. It is working patiently toward its aim that happens to coincide with UN Annan plan.
http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/?p=14746&cp=7#comment-311698