Bashar al Assad is now squeezed more than ever to fulfill his promises. There is no escape as the Russian won’t accept a slap on their face if Bashar fails to implement the reforms. They’ll dump him.
The strategy of the Russians is to bring the independant opposition groups on the ground (not the French-MB-Turkish one) to act more decisively and find a middle way to save the country from civil war and chaos.
Bashar’s excuses has been the lack of social peace to implement the reforms, while the opposition’s reluctance is because of the use of force to get that social peace.
As the opposition on the ground lacks any charismatic and courageous leadership, the whole thing has been dragging its feet and has allowed foreign supported expats to carry the flag of the opposition while sitting on their computers or touring Turkey and the “lobbies”
The Russian hope to boost the local opposition to share the burden of imposing a social peace as well as pushing Bashar to implement the reforms in conjunction with the opposition.
It is a challenge that will be opposed and fought by the hawk western countries who prefer the full destruction of the country and a rebuild under their ‘knowledgable supervision’ to regain the upper hand on the ‘arab spring’ and better control its foreign policy, especially on Iran, Iraq and Israel.
The Russians have invested and risked a lot in that veto. They must deliver, their honor is at stake.
http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/?p=12401&cp=2#comment-276808