The Military in Politics: The Turkish model

Turkey’s Military Is a Catalyst for Reform
The Military in Politics

by David Capezza
Middle East Quarterly
Summer 2009, pp. 13-23

http://www.meforum.org/2160/turkey-military-catalyst-for-reform

Analysts generally consider military influence in politics and society to be a critical impediment to the development of democratic political and civil rights and freedoms. According to Freedom House, for example, greater military involvement in government politics decreases civil liberties and political rights in any given country; this infringes on a government’s ability to develop democracy.[1]

In 1826, Sultan Mahmud II broke the power of the sultan’s guards, the Janissaries, enabling him to reform the military and begin Westernization of the empire.

Turkey may be an exception. The military has deep roots in society, and its influence predates the founding of the republic. But rather than hinder democratization, Turkey’s military remains an important component in the checks and balances that protect Turkish democracy. Herein lies an irony: European officials have made diminishment of military influence a key reform in Turkey’s European Union accession process. This may be a noble goal, but by insisting on dismantling the military role in Turkish society without advancing a new mechanism to guarantee the constitution, well-meaning reformers may actually undercut the stability of Turkey as a democracy.

From Turkey’s founding, the military assumed responsibility for guaranteeing the republic’s constitution. Article 35 of the Turkish Armed Service Internal Service Code of 1961 declared that the “duty of the armed forces is to protect and safeguard Turkish territory and the Turkish Republic as stipulated by the constitution.”[2] Indeed, such an interpretation had its roots in the constitution. Turkey’s first constitution was written in 1921, and since the formal proclamation of the republic, the country has had three additional constitutions—in 1924, 1961, and 1982. Until the constitutional amendments of 2001, each placed responsibility in the military’s hands for the protection of the Turkish state from both external and internal challenges. The constitution of 1982, for example, prohibited contestation or constitutional review of the laws or decrees passed by the military when the republic was under its rule from 1980 until 1983. This effectively provided the military with a legal exit guarantee following their coup in 1980.[3] Specifically, article 15 stated, “No allegation of unconstitutionality can be made in respect of laws, law-amending ordinances and acts and decisions taken in accordance with the law numbered 2324 on the law on the constitutional order.”[4]

The Turkish military has used this sense of constitutional authorization to justify interference in the political realm, on some occasions. It seized power in 1960 and 1980 when polarization and economic instability paralyzed the country’s political system, and it also forced the resignation of governments in 1971 and 1997. While the Turkish constitution certainly does not endorse coups, Turkish popular distrust of politicians has generally led the public to support military action.

This constitutional role began to unravel, however, in September 2001, when the Turkish parliament amended the constitution to ensure that the Constitutional Court (Anayasa Mahkemesi) review any decisions involving maintenance of freedoms and allegations of unconstitutionality.[5] Therefore, the military may not act upon allegations of unconstitutional acts until there has been prior court review. Other structural factors augment the Turkish military’s role. On July 23, 2003, the Grand National Assembly passed a reform package which called for a civilian to lead the powerful and historically military-led National Security Council (Milli Güvenlik Kurulu, MGK), a body which advises—but, more realistically, directs—the president in the formation of his security policies, policies which in Turkey traditionally span internal and external threats. On August 17, 2004, President Ahmet Necdet Sezer appointed former ambassador to the U.K., Mehmet Yiğit Alpogan, to head the MGK.[6] Nevertheless, the military remains a force wielding more political power than it does in Western democracies. The commander of the Turkish General Staff, for example, answers directly to the prime minister and is not subordinate to the minister of defense, nor are the appointments to senior military posts subject to the affirmation of politicians.

The Ottoman Military Tradition

The augmented role of Turkey’s military, both in politics and as a catalyst for reform, has deep historical roots. It is true to say that throughout much of Ottoman history, the military stymied reform. The Janissaries, the sultan’s household troops and bodyguard, remained a force resistant to change into the early nineteenth century, but in 1826, Sultan Mahmud II (r. 1808-39) broke their power,[7] enabling him first to reform the military and then to begin Westernization of the empire. Mahmud’s reforms continued, with a few brief interruptions, throughout the remainder of the century.

While there was general recognition in Ottoman domains that the Empire had to modernize, there was also public criticism that the sultan’s reforms subordinated Ottoman tradition to European ways.[8] The reforms of Mahmud II may not have won broad public support, but they did nevertheless sow the seeds of liberty in Ottoman society. With ideas of political and social liberty beginning to permeate the Ottoman world, a number of Ottoman nationalists and government bureaucrats formed a group in 1865 called the Young Ottomans, which sought to transform the sultanate into a constitutional republic with an elected parliament. The Young Ottomans used the printing press to disseminate works on liberty, justice, and freedom.

They made halting progress. In 1877, for example, the Ottoman Empire had its first parliamentary election, but within months, Sultan Abdul Hamid II (r. 1876-1909) disbanded the parliament and shortly thereafter, in 1878, annulled the constitution itself. Assessing the failure, emeritus Princeton historian Bernard Lewis explains: “the reforming edicts had brought some changes in administrative procedures, but had done nothing to protect the subject against arbitrary rule.”[9]

The only institution that could protect the populace against arbitrary rule was the military. Although it had been able to overthrow successfully the power vested in the sultan at certain times—as when the Janissaries rose up against Sultan Selim III’s (r. 1789-1807) military reforms in 1807—it required the support of the populace, something illustrated by the failure of an 1826 revolt.[10] Conversely, the Young Ottomans, while generally supported by the populace, lacked the most crucial element to implement their ideas: the support of the military. As Ismail Kemal, a leader of the Albanian independence movement in 1912, stated, “By propaganda and publications alone a revolution cannot be made. It is therefore necessary to work to ensure the participation of the armed forces in the revolutionary movement.”[11]

Recognizing the need to have the support of both the military and the people to facilitate a successful revolution, in 1906, a group of young military officers, including Mustafa Kemal, who would later take the single name Atatürk, created a revolutionary organization called Vatan ve Hürriyet (Fatherland and Freedom) to advance political revolution and reform in the Empire. They kept their group distinct from civilian groups such as unionists and liberals who feared a concentration of power in the central government.

On July 23, 1908, Sultan Abdul Hamid acquiesced to the revolutionaries’ demands and ushered in a new era of constitutionalism. However, the İttihat ve Terakki Cemiyeti (Committee of Union and Progress, CUP) was able to suppress the internal military mutiny and restore order within the ranks by sending an army to the capital to end the instability. By April 27, 1909, with the accession of Abdul Hamid’s brother Mehmed V (r. 1909-1918) to the throne, the army effectively ensured that it would be involved in the establishment of a new constitution and would inevitably remain involved in politics for an extended period of time. However, the decision to return authority to civilian hands set a precedent for what would soon become the military-political symbiosis that distinguishes modern Turkey.[12]

Atatürk and After

In the wake of the Ottoman Empire’s defeat in World War I, the Allied powers, including France and Great Britain, sought to divide Anatolia into zones of influence and to have Istanbul demilitarized under international control. From chaos and defeat, Atatürk rallied troops to take Istanbul, repel foreign forces, and crush rebellious factions. Empowered by military success and growing nationalist sentiment, Atatürk negotiated peace terms with the Allied powers and declared Turkey’s independence.[13] On October 13, 1923, the new parliament declared Ankara the capital and, shortly after, the Grand National Assembly elected Atatürk president.[14]

The military founded the Turkish Republic with the support of the people. The main reason for its success and the establishment of a new government was Atatürk’s pragmatic approach as he checked his own power with moderate decision making.[15] Kemalism evolved to become a measured approach, combining nationalism, populism, étatisme, laicism, and reformism.[16] The Constitution of 1921 reinforced social, economic, and judicial equality; support for state-owned industries; recognition of a secular political life; and the idea that reform was necessary for the state to remain relevant to the populace’s needs.[17]

Atatürk formalized a separation of the military from politics. Article 148 of the Military Penal Code prohibited serving military officers from political party membership or activities and declared that the military would be neutral in its support of the political system. Simultaneously, however, the article empowered the military to act as “the vanguard of revolution” with the right to “intervene in the political sphere if the survival of the state would otherwise be left in grave jeopardy.” Article 34 of the Army Internal Service Law of 1935 stipulated that the military was constitutionally obligated to protect and defend the Turkish homeland and the republic,[18] a clause interpreted by generations of Turkish officials to allow military leaders to intercede whenever the internal politics of Turkey destabilize the republic.

Atatürk did not foresee military involvement in day-to-day politics, and he certainly did not tolerate military interference with his agenda. Rather, having arisen from the military, he used it as a power base from which to enforce his reforms. Under Atatürk’s successor, İsmet İnönü, the question over the military’s future role in politics gained greater significance. The first question to arise was the role of the chief of staff who, under Atatürk, reported directly to the prime minister rather than the minister of defense. Given Turkey’s strong premiership, this made the military a more independent power base, one not subordinate to a civilian defense minister. İnönü chose to continue this modus operandi.[19]

After a successful election in July 1946, İnönü and the Republican People’s Party (Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi, CHP) won majority support although the Democrat Party (Demokrat Parti, DP) established itself as a serious minority party. The Democrats dominated the May 1950 elections, winning 470 seats to the CHP’s 69. İnönü stepped down, and power passed to Prime Minister Adnan Menderes and President Celal Bayar. They relaxed restrictions on Islam’s role in society, encouraged private enterprise in order to hasten economic development, and implemented social welfare programs. After winning a huge majority in the May 1954 elections, Menderes introduced more authoritarian legislation, restricting freedom of the press and limiting freedom of assembly.[20] By 1959, disgruntled opposition members boycotted the Grand National Assembly and threatened to take their protests to the streets. The Turkish political scene had grown volatile.[21]

1960, 1971, 1980: Military Coups and Intervention

In April 1960, amidst student protests and unrest between the government and the opposition parties, the military launched a coup to restore political and social order, installing a Committee on National Unity led by General Cemal Gürsel. On May 27, they arrested Bayar, Menderes, other members of the Democratic Party cabinet, deputies, and officials. Prime Minister Menderes and two members of his cabinet were executed after the coup. The following year, the Committee of National Unity created a larger constituent assembly, rewrote the constitution, and submitted it to popular referendum. After sponsoring elections, the military returned power to civilian control in November 1961. The Grand National Assembly appointed Gürsel president, but he first resigned from the military. While historians and diplomats may condemn the coup, the Turkish experience stands in sharp juxtaposition to that in Egypt, Iraq, and Syria where the military seized control and refused to relinquish power. Even neighboring Greece had to wait seven years to restore civilian control.

Turkish society, however, remained unstable through much of the 1960s as the debate about Turkey’s place in the Cold War and the spread of socialism grew more polarized. While the socialists could not consolidate control, they were still able to undermine the ability of coalition governments to operate.[22] Between 1965 and 1969, the reactionary leftist groups grew strong alongside the nationalist right. This led to an increasingly virulent left-right struggle, which often manifested itself in violent clashes. Trade Unions, which ironically gained the right to strike only in the 1961 constitution, increasingly took to the streets. The balance-of-payments deficit worsened, inflation increased, and in 1970, the government devalued the currency. In early 1971, civil violence rose sharply. There were student clashes with the police, kidnappings, murders, and bombings of government buildings. In the military’s opinion, the situation had become untenable. The deteriorating situation and Prime Minister Süleyman Demirel’s inability to maintain order convinced the military to intervene again in order to recalibrate and stabilize political life.[23]

On March 12, 1971, the Turkish military sent a memorandum to President Cevdet Sunay and Prime Minister Demirel insisting on the need to appoint a new government to calm society and to resolve continued economic problems. In the two years that followed, debate over the future of the republic raged among the political parties and between civil and military institutions. The successor government to Demirel’s collapsed after Prime Minister Nihat Erim was unable to bridge the differences between his government, the Justice Party (Adalet Partisi), and the Republican Peoples Party.[24] After the March 1973 parliamentary elections, the political parties elected retired Admiral Fahri Korutürk as president on April 6. After the precedents of Gürsel and Sunay, the rise of a retired military official to the presidency seemed natural; after all, the military was seen as above politics and, in the Turkish system, the president is traditionally a consensus figure who can rise above political party antics. Nevertheless, the legacy of the 1971 intervention is mixed. While the military did force the government to reshuffle, its goal of establishing a “powerful and credible government” did not succeed, given that four weak coalition governments rose and fell in the thirty-one months following the memorandum.[25]

Turkey remained unstable. High inflation, cuts in public expenditures, and labor disputes led to protests and strikes. Meanwhile, there were general malaise and rising political turmoil between Bülent Ecevit’s ruling CHP and its Islamist rival, Necmettin Erbakan’s National Salvation Party (Milli Selamet Partisi).[26] Between 1971 and 1980, there were eleven successive governments. Most were too greatly sidetracked by their efforts to contain rivalry within their coalition to tackle social unrest, extremism, and an economic crisis exacerbated by the 1973 oil embargo. With this increase in unrest and the political situation untenable, the military again decided to “invoke the power granted to them by the Internal Service Code to protect and look after the Turkish Republic.”[27] On September 12, 1980, the military carried out a nonviolent coup, arresting 138,000 people, of whom 42,000 received judicial sentences. Restrictive laws clamped down on political demonstrations and strikes. Unlike the 1971 coup, in which the military only took a guiding role in reestablishing the political system, in 1980, it used a heavy hand to restore order.[28]

Up to the 1983 elections, primary power rested in the military leadership and was channeled through the National Security Council under General Kenan Evren. The military dominated most aspects of society, taking strict control of universities, dismissing or transferring academics, depoliticizing the public service system, and dissolving existing political parties. In essence, the military enforced martial law to ensure public safety. [29] The military, once again, issued a new constitution. In 1983, Turgut Özal and the Motherland Party (Anavatan Partisi, ANAP) assumed power with Evren serving as president.

While many academics and Western diplomats view military interventions in black and white terms as always antithetical to democracy, throughout these formative years of Turkish democracy, this was not the case. Nilüfer Göle, director of studies at the école des Hautes études in the Centre d’Analyse et d’Intervention Sociologiques in Paris, writes, “the military interventions of 1960-1961, 1970-1973, and 1980-1983 can be perceived as state reactions against the ‘unhealthy’ autonomization and differentiation of economic, political and cultural groups.”[30] The military simply sought the continuance of the Kemalist ideology, which had broad popular support and was the template upon which the constitution allowed various political parties to act.[31]

Erbakan and His Legacy

Following the coup of 1980, the military stayed out of politics and, indeed, under Özal, who served as prime minister from 1983-89 and president from 1989-93, lost some of its political autonomy, even as it remained free from civilian control. Only when Prime Minister Tansu Çiller began to lose control during an economic and social crisis in 1994 (during which inflation reached 100 percent) did the military again begin to involve itself actively in politics.[32]

In 1996, after winning just 21 percent of the vote the previous year, Erbakan became prime minister as the leader of a coalition between Çiller’s True Path Party (Doğru Yol Partisi, DYP) and his own newly-formed Welfare Party (Refah Partisi, RP). He was an ardent Islamist, but while he was disliked by the military, the Turkish General Staff did not seek to prevent his accession, both because the Turkish military does not intervene as lightly as some of its detractors suggest and because, holding 158 of 550 seats in parliament, his party could not rule without its Kemalist coalition partners.[33]

Almost immediately, however, the Erbakan government began to support a strong pro-religious platform and a reorientation of foreign policy as Erbakan visited Iran and Libya. In February 1997, the National Security Council reported that the foundations of Turkey’s political structure were being undermined by the government’s pro-Islamist policies. Amidst growing disaffection among the populace due to the government’s religious policies, the military forced Erbakan’s resignation and, within months, the Constitutional Court banned the Refah,[34] but not before Refah officials had formed new parties to which they transferred most of their party’s assets. Recai Kutan assumed command of the spin-off Fazilet Partisi (Virtue Party) and mollified Refah’s hard-line position. It was nevertheless banned in 1998 after the Constitutional Court found that the party’s Islamist platform breached the 1982 constitution.[35] Supporters of the Virtue Party led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in turn formed the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) in July 2001.

Erdoğan, a former mayor of Istanbul, was a controversial figure in Turkey. In 1998, a Diyarbakir court convicted him of inciting religious hatred after he read an Islamist poem at a political rally,[36] and even after the party swept to victory in the November 2002 elections, he remained prohibited from holding office, a ban overturned the following February.

The AKP’s rise had less to do with its Islamist agenda than with public disgust over corruption scandals among the more traditional parties amidst the November 2000 banking and February 2001 currency crises.[37] On a single day on February 22, 2001, the Turkish lira lost one-third of its value.[38] Erdoğan is a skilled politician. He moderated both his and his party’s image to ensure that the AKP would not meet the fate of Refah or Fazilet. As public confidence in Ecevit and his coalition partners waned, Erdoğan sought to appeal to a constituency beyond the AKP’s Islamist base. A July 2000 poll conducted by the Ankara Social Research Center found that 30.8 percent of those surveyed would vote for Erdoğan’s party.[39]

The Rise of Erdoğan

And so it came to be. In 2002, the AKP gained power with 34 percent of the vote. Because five other parties fell just short of the ten percent threshold necessary to enter parliament, this propelled the AKP’s grip on parliament to a clear majority with 363 seats in the Grand National Assembly, the largest majority in Turkey’s multiparty era. The CHP, Turkey’s oldest political party but one which had not been represented in the 1999 parliament, won 19 percent. A clear reflection of the popular dismay with the previous government, the Motherland Party received just over five percent of the vote.

The AKP hewed a moderate foreign policy line when it assumed office. Unlike Erbakan, Erdoğan embraced the European Union accession process. For the AKP, this was a brilliant tactical move. By blurring—rather than sharply defining—the line between pro-Western orientation and Islamism, Erdoğan provided his party with plausible deniability about its goals; it could be all things to all people. In Central Anatolia, its deputies could preach Islamism while party officials convinced Turkish businessmen in Western-oriented cities such as Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir that it was committed to orienting Turkey closer toward Europe. Simultaneously, the 1999 Copenhagen Criteria, which outlined the reforms necessary to join the European Union, would weaken military influence within the Turkish state. Not only would a civilian lead the National Security Council, but the body would meet only six times a year, cutting by half the opportunities it had to micromanage policy. As important, European Union reforms placed military expenditures under the scrutiny of the Court of Accounts, a body similar to the U.S. General Accounting Office.[40]

Turkey’s military is divided about whether European Union accession is a reflection of traditionalist Kemalist views. Perhaps two-thirds of the Turkish public supported Ankara’s bid to join the European Union upon announcement of the Copenhagen Criteria. General Hüseyin Kivrikoğlu, chief of the Turkish General Staff at the time, said that “joining the EU was a geopolitical necessity,” whereas a retired general commented that “EU membership was against Turkey’s history and contradicted the Kemalist revolution.”[41]

As Copenhagen Criteria reforms weakened the power of the military in internal Turkish affairs, Erdoğan has advanced an Islamist agenda which has altered Turkish society. The most prominent example of the AKP’s Islamism has been its argument that Turkish women should have a legal right to wear veils in schools and public institutions, a policy traditional Kemalists and the military consider a symbolic affront to the Turkish government’s secularism. Here, ironically, Erdoğan has clashed with European officials. After the European Court of Human Rights backed the ban on head scarves in public schools, the prime minister complained, “It is wrong that those who have no connection to this field [of religion] make such a decision … without consulting Islamic scholars.”[42]

However, the AKP’s attempts to roll back the separation between mosque and state involve more than the head scarf. In May 2006, the Erdoğan-appointed chief negotiator for European Union accession talks ordered state officials to cease defining Turkey’s educational system as secular.[43] Indeed, Erdoğan moved to equate Imam Hatip religious school degrees with those of public high schools, thereby enabling Islamist students to enter the university and qualify for government jobs without serious study of basic Western principles.[44] When university presidents complained about growing AKP political interference and Islamist influence in their institutions, Erdoğan ordered the police to detain the most outspoken university rector on corruption charges that later proved baseless.[45]

Distrust of the AKP and its agenda solidified after a gunman, reportedly upset with a ruling against the veil law, stormed the Council of State, equivalent to the Supreme Court, and opened fire shouting, “I am a soldier of God,” killing one justice.[46] Erdoğan declined to attend the dead man’s funeral. Both the President and Yaşar Büyükanıt, chief of the Turkish General Staff, have warned publicly of growing threats to secularism. On April 12, 2006, Sezer said, “Religious fundamentalism has reached alarming proportions. Turkey’s only guarantee against this threat is its secular order.”[47] The following day, Büyükanıt warned military cadets of growing Islamic fundamentalism and said that “every measure will be taken against it.”[48]

The military was, however, powerless to intervene, at least compared to 1960, 1971, 1980, and 1997. On April 27, 2007, Büyükanıt held a press conference to stress that the military wanted the next president of Turkey to uphold the original principles of the republic. Traditionally, the Grand National Assembly and major political parties agreed on a nominee for president, as the position, unlike in the United States, was meant to be above politics and held by a consensus figure. Erdoğan, however, had a majority in parliament to choose the president without consulting political rivals and simply announced that his candidate would be Abdullah Gül, the foreign minister in the AKP government.

Hours later, the Turkish General Staff posted a statement on its website declaring, “Some circles who have been carrying out endless efforts to disturb fundamental values of the republic of Turkey, especially secularism, have escalated their efforts recently,” warning that the “fundamentalist understanding [of the government] was eroding the very foundation of the Turkish Republic and the ideas that it was founded upon.”[49] Rather than step aside with relative grace as had Erbakan, the AKP issued a rebuttal, reminding the military that in “democracies,” the military does not intervene in the political process.

Islamists and many diplomats branded the military’s statement as an “Internet coup,” casting the military as aggressors, rather than defenders of a constitutional order violated by Erdoğan. After a constitutional battle over procedures, the AKP-dominated Grand National Assembly selected Gül as president, further consolidating the party’s power and effectively eliminating any future presidential vetoes over concerns about the constitutionalism of AKP legislation.

Since winning a second term and consolidating control with 46.7 percent of the vote, Erdoğan has gone on the offensive. After surviving a judicial challenge which could have resulted in the disbandment of the AKP on questionable constitutional grounds, the AKP pushed forward with prosecutions on an alleged nationalist and Kemalist plot to cause chaos in order to provide an excuse for military intervention. AKP-led prosecutors and security forces have detained hundreds of journalists, retired military officers, political rivals, and academics. While, at its root, physical evidence exists to suggest some malfeasance on the part of radical Kemalists, there is little evidence to suggest a widespread plot.

The AKP, therefore, faces growing criticism that it is using the case as an excuse to intimidate or silence anyone who opposes its agenda.[50] The importance of the so-called Ergenekon prosecutions, though, is to show just how little influence and control the military has over Turkish society. Simultaneously, should the Ergenekon prosecutions represent an internal putsch by Erdoğan against his and the AKP’s opponents, the episode shows how unbalanced Turkish democracy can become when the military can no longer effectively act as a force for constitutionalism and reform.

The Military Exits?

Turkey remains a strategic asset to the West. Its military is the second largest in NATO, and it is the preeminent Western security force in what is considered by many Westerners to be the most volatile region in the world. With Turkey at the doorstep of the European Union, it is ever closer to realizing its movement to the West. Ironically, it may not be able to take this final step without recognition of the domestic role of its military.

Since the days of the Ottoman Empire and throughout the history of the Turkish Republic, the military has been the one institution that has repeatedly checked civilian autocratic tendencies, maintained moderation, and ensured the preservation of the state. While Western officials may view repeated coups as antithetical to democracy, the military has always returned power to the civilian sector. Indeed, the elements that complain loudest about military involvement tend to be those least committed to constitutionalism and least tolerant toward political opponents.

Moreover, the military has, since the late nineteenth century, maintained the push towards modernization while continuing the tradition of the Ottoman and republican Turkish societies. Though the external environment has changed dramatically, the military has remained an anchor for society.

The EU accession process has driven reforms that have weakened the military’s internal role. While many democracy experts and leaders of EU member states argue that the military should not have a role in internal politics,[51] Turkey is different. The Turkish political system is dynamic and permits a wider range of political views and philosophies to compete on the political stage than many other European states. The system has not always worked well, however; on several occasions, such as that leading to the 1960 coup, politicians consolidating disproportionate control have appeared ready to cast aside the foundational principles of Turkish democracy. In other instances, such as 1971 and 1980, parliamentary fractiousness has impeded coalition formation or effective government. Ordinary democratic processes were unable to resolve the political stalemate. When the Turkish military intervened, it did so to restore democratic stability, not supplant it. From 1923 to the present day, the military has proven its commitment to democracy and constitutionalism and, indeed, only invokes its role as a constitutional check and balance as a last resort.

In essence, the military has acted as a guide to usher Kemalist principles into full realization. This is not to say that the military should continue to have a dominant role in perpetuity. However, failure to recognize the military’s unique and traditional role as the protector of the public from any political party’s undemocratic consolidation of power and as the defender of the constitution is dangerous because it creates the possibility that the checks and balances of Turkish society might collapse without creation of a new system of supervision. As Turkey and its people move into the future, the military should move as well. Just as Atatürk modernized Turkey and initiated its drive toward the West, European officials should consider the military a reformist force without which Ankara’s movement further to the West might not occur.

David Capezza is a consultant for the Center for New American Security in Washington, DC.

[1] Freedom in the World, 2007 (New York: Freedom House, 2007), pp. 986-7.
[2] Tim Jacoby, Social Power and the Turkish State (New York: Frank Cass, 2004), p. 133.
[3] Levent Gönenc, “The 2001 Amendments to the 1982 Constitution of Turkey,” Ankara Law Review, Summer 2004, p. 93.
[4] Serap Yazici, “A Guide to Turkish Public Law and Legal Research: 10.2, The Constitutional Amendments of 2001 and 2004,” GlobaLex, Hauser Global Law School Program, Jan. 2009.
[5] Serap Yazici, “A Guide to the Turkish Public Law Order and Legal Research: The Constitutional Amendments of 2001 and 2004,” GlobaLex, Hauser Global Law School Program, Sept. 2006.
[6] Sabah (Istanbul), Aug. 18, 2004.
[7] Bernard Lewis, The Emergence of Modern Turkey (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002), p. 78.
[8] Ibid., 125-8.
[9] Ibid., p. 171.
[10] William Hale, Turkish Politics and the Role of the Military (New York: Routledge, 1994), p. 16.
[11] Quoted in Lewis, The Emergence of Modern Turkey, p. 202.
[12] Alexander L. Macfie, The End of the Ottoman Empire, 1908-1923 (New York: Longman’s, 1998), pp. 41-56.
[13] Metin Tamkoc, The Warrior Diplomats: Guardians of the National Security and Modernization of Turkey (Salt Lake City: University of Utah Press, 1976), pp. 10-9.
[14] Roderic H. Davidson, Turkey: A Short History (Huntingdon, U.K.: Eothen Press, 1998), pp. 121-7.
[15] Tamkoc, The Warrior Diplomats, p. 28.
[16] Donald Everett Webster, The Turkey of Ataturk: Social Process in the Turkish Reformation (Philadelphia: The American Academy of Political and Social Science, 1939), pp. 162-72.
[17] Ibid., pp. 163-71.
[18] Hale, Turkish Politics and the Role of the Military, pp. 72, 80.
[19] Ibid., p. 83.
[20] Walter Weiker, The Turkish Revolution, 1960-1961 (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1963), pp. 6-11.
[21] Davidson, Turkey: A Short History, pp. 148-54.
[22] David Shankland, The Turkish Republic at Seventy-Five Years (Huntingdon, U.K.: Eothen Press, 1999), p. 94.
[23] Hale, Turkish Politics and the Role of the Military, pp. 175-9.
[24] Ibid., pp. 194-200.
[25] Ibid., pp. 207-8.
[26] Ibid., pp. 216-7; Davidson, Turkey: A Short History, p. 171.
[27] General Kenan Evren, quoted in Hale, Turkish Politics and the Role of the Military, p. 246.
[28] Erik Cornell, Turkey in the 21st Century (Richmond, U.K.: Curzon Press, 2001), pp. 36-7.
[29] Davidson, Turkey: A Short History, p. 172.
[30] Nilüfer Göle, “Toward an Autonomization of Politics and Civil Society in Turkey,” in Metin Heper and Ahmet Evin, eds, Politics in the Third Turkish Republic (Boulder: Westview Press, 1994), pp. 213-22, quoted in Sylvia Kedourie, Seventy-Five Years of the Turkish Republic (London: Frank Cass Publishers, 2000), p. 141.
[31] Kedourie, Seventy-Five Years of the Turkish Republic, p. 139.
[32] Ibid., pp. 136-9.
[33] Feroz Ahmad, Turkey: The Quest for Identity (Oxford: One World Publishers, 2003), pp. 168-70.
[34] Cornell, Turkey in the 21st Century, pp. 45-9.
[35] Thomas Carroll, “Turkey Shuts down the Islamists … Again,” Middle East Intelligence Bulletin, July 2001.
[36] Turkish Daily News (Ankara), Sept. 28, 1998.
[37] Soner Cagaptay, “Turkey Goes to the Polls: A Post-Mortem,” Policywatch, no. 675, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Washington, D.C., Nov. 7, 2002.
[38] “Economic Survey of Turkey, 2002,” Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris, Oct. 2002.
[39] Umit Cizre, Secular and Islamist Politics in Turkey (New York: Routledge Press, 2007), pp. 201-3.
[40] Soner Cagaptay, “European Union Reforms Diminish the Role of the Turkish Military: Ankara Knocking at Brussels Door,” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Washington, D.C., Aug. 12, 2003, p. 214.
[41] Ahmad, Turkey: The Quest for Identity, pp. 175-6.
[42] Turkish Daily News, Nov. 15, 2005.
[43] Turkish Daily News, June 1, 2006.
[44] Turkish Daily News, Oct. 24, 2005.
[45] Sabah, Oct. 23, 2005.
[46] Turkish Daily News, July 14, 2006.
[47] Turkish Daily News, Apr. 14, 2006.
[48] Turkish Daily News, Oct. 3, 2006.
[49] BBC News, Apr. 27, 2007.
[50] Michael Rubin, “Erdogan, Ergenekon, and the Struggle for Turkey,” Mideast Monitor, Aug. 8, 2008.
[51] “Foreign Affairs, Sixth Report: The Military,” the Committee on Foreign Affairs, British House of Commons, Apr. 23, 2002.

Related Topics:  Middle East politics, Turkey and Turks  |  Summer 2009 MEQ receive the latest by email: subscribe to the free mef mailing list To receive the full, printed version of the Middle East Quarterly, please see details about an affordable subscription. This text may be reposted or forwarded so long as it is presented as an integral whole with complete information provided about its author, date, place of publication, and original URL.

US draws down in Iraq, and Baghdad takes the reins

Tony Karon

Nov 2, 2011 –

Washington’s neocons would have you believe that the US president, Barack Obama, will serve up Iraq on a plate to a hungry Iran when he withdraws all US troops at the end of this year.

And Mr Obama’s camp seems concerned to counter this charge, with an election a year away. Officials are warning Iran against “interference” in Iraq, and The New York Times reports that to counter Iran, the US will increase its troop numbers and naval strength in the Gulf after the Iraq withdrawal.

The posturing about Iran is, of course, largely for domestic consumption. Mr Obama’s critics are misguided in believing that the US troop presence limits Iranian influence in Iraq, and they are also directing their complaint to the wrong address: It was not President Obama who decided to leave Iraq; he is required to do so under the Status of Forces Agreement negotiated by his predecessor in November 2008.

But if the Republicans are really looking for one man to blame for the US withdrawal it is neither President George W Bush nor Mr Obama, but Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the leading Shiite cleric. He is the man who made sure key decisions about the country’s future were taken democratically, by Iraqis rather than by Americans.

Paul Bremer, the American viceroy best remembered for the epic blunder of summarily dissolving the Iraqi military, fell a foul of Ayatollah Sistani in 2003 when he proposed three years of government by Iraqis hand-picked by the US, who would also write the new constitution.

 

The cleric – who refused ever to meet US officials lest he be deemed to be sanctifying the occupation – issued a fatwa from Najaf, dismissing Mr Bremer’s plan as “fundamentally unacceptable” and insisting that Iraqis democratically elect the body that would draw up a new constitution.

Mr Bremer, seized by the heady arrogance of Bush-era empire-building, hoped to overrule Mr Sistani. But by the end of 2003, with tens of thousands of Iraqis demonstrating in support of the Ayatollah’s decree, it became clear that even Mr Bremer’s hand-picked Iraqi Governing Council would buckle to the election demand.

The US couldn’t very well take to the streets to fight the same Iraqis it claimed to have liberated, and Mr Bremer was forced to back down. The US transferred sovereignty in 2004 and the first election was held the following January. It returned a Shiite-dominated government closer to Iran than to Washington, as did the second election, a year later (although Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki retains his independence from both Tehran and Washington).

The idea that US troops somehow diminish Iranian influence in Iraq is hard to take seriously. Iran certainly had an agenda in Iraq; it was determined to see a friendly government replace Saddam Hussein, its most reviled and dangerous enemy, and so avoid any repeat of the disastrous eight-year war waged by Saddam against the Iranians in the 1980s. And given Iran’s long-standing ties with Shiite parties in Iraq, the most effective means for achieving Iran’s objective may well have been Iraqi democracy – the Shiites, on whom it could count for friendly ties, were after all an electoral majority.

 

So, Iran deepened political, economic and religious ties with Iraq’s Shiites. It provided financial support to its political and religious allies, and military training and supplies to Shiite militias that were fighting the US and were also engaged in vicious sectarian warfare against Iraqi Sunnis.

Iran built this influence despite the presence of up to 170,000 American troops – and it used that influence to help press for the departure of US forces.

If anything, the departure of US forces removes the key pretext for Iran backing Shiite militia groups, of which Mr Maliki would like to be rid. But the possibility of escalating proxy warfare between Iran and Saudi Arabia might see such support maintained.

In the unlikely event that Iran invaded Iraq after the American withdrawal, it would find plenty of Arab Shiites ready to fight their Persian Shiite neighbours – as they did during the 1980s war. The interests of men like Mr Maliki and Muqtada Al Sadr may coincide with those of Iran at times but these men remain, at heart, fierce Iraqi nationalists.

Mr Bremer’s plan had implied that the Iraqis weren’t quite ready for democracy, but Ayatollah Sistani turned the question on its head, asking if the Americans were ready to abide by the election results.

To its credit, the US has done so. In 2008, when Mr Bush began negotiating a new Status of Forces Agreement, he envisaged an open- ended stay, and wanted the Iraqis to agree to 50 permanent US bases in the country. The Iraqis walked him back, setting the December 31, 2011 withdrawal deadline and rejecting permanent bases.

US officials still hoped that the Iraqis could be pressed to accept a couple of US divisions staying behind, but the Iraqis declined.

The US will certainly retain a substantial presence, with thousands of security contractors on the staff of its 17,000-person embassy in Baghdad and hundreds of soldiers in training capacities, to say nothing of covert operations.

Many perils lie ahead. Some of the Shiite militias may escalate attacks on US troops to make it look as if their military efforts drove the Americans out. But Iraqis know it was their government – Iraqi public opinion, as expressed through the democratic process – that forced the Americans to accept their terms. And if the Iraqis could prevail over the world’s last superpower, they’re unlikely to become a cat’s paw for the lesser regional hegemon next door.

American leaders like to tell their counterparts in newly democratic societies that the iron test of democracy is whether leaders accept defeat at the polls. That’s exactly what they’ve had to do in Iraq.

Tony Karon is an analyst based in New York. Follow him on Twitter @Tony Karon

Why Contain Iran When Its Own Aims Will Do Just That?

By Vali Nasr – Oct 31, 2011

Iran is once again in America’s cross hairs. Even before the allegations of an Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington, concerns about Iran were high, with an impending U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq possibly leading to increased Iranian influence there. U.S. opinion and decision makers are expanding their estimate of Iran’s adventurousness and calling for new containment measures.

In both exercises, there is room for misjudgment. In fact, Iran has not become more ambitious of late; rather, its aspirations have been underestimated. As for attempting to rein in Iran, that could prove both counterproductive and unnecessary.

Until recently, the U.S. government regarded Iran as subdued, weakened and relatively isolated. There was considerable evidence for this view. Iran’s leadership is deeply divided. Its economy is reeling as a result of economic sanctions, which have reduced trade and therefore contact with the Arab world.

What’s more, Iran’s standing in the Middle East appeared to be declining after the Arab Spring. The “Arab street,” once enamored with Iran’s bluster, is now turned off by the country’s suppression of dissent at home and its support for the oppressive Syrian regime. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are helping Syrian President Bashar al-Assad put down a growing uprising. The possibility of a collapse of the Assad regime threatens to confound Iran’s plans for regional domination. Syria is Iran’s main Arab ally and its conduit for aid to Hezbollah, the militant, Islamist Lebanese group that Iran has used as a proxy to menace Israel, the U.S., Lebanon itself and others.

A Different View

From Tehran, however, the situation looks quite different. For one thing, Iran is not as worried about losing sway in a post-Assad Syria as many in the West think. Iran calculates that until Syria gets back the Golan Heights, a plateau captured by Israel in the 1967 war, any government in Damascus will need Hezbollah as a force to pressure Israel. And with Hezbollah comes Iranian influence.

Iran’s leaders are clearly preparing for the possibility of Assad’s fall. Even while claiming nefarious outsiders are fomenting the unrest in Syria, they have begun to add veiled criticisms of the regime’s brutal crackdown, an obvious means of pandering to the street.

What’s more, Iran’s leaders perceive that it is the U.S. position, not theirs, that has weakened in the region. They see U.S. troops withdrawing precipitously from both Iraq and Afghanistan; U.S. relations with Pakistan turning ever more sour; and Arab dictators who have been propped up by America for years under threat or already gone. The brazen nature of the Washington assassination plot supports the idea that Iran sees the U.S. as soft.

Given this perception, Iran is asserting itself. In the past two years, it has eschewed serious engagement with the U.S. on the Iranian nuclear program, Afghanistan or anything else. Rebuffing the U.S. idea of a hot line to avoid conflict in the Persian Gulf, Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, Iran’s navy commander said, “The presence of the U.S. in the Persian Gulf is illegitimate and makes no sense.”

Fill the Void

Iran’s goals are to hasten the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq and fill the void left behind. Iran has increased its outreach to the Taliban and is pushing to complete a project to supply natural gas to Pakistan through a pipeline connecting the two countries. In Iraq, it has supported stepped-up attacks by the Iranian-backed Shiite resistance and is talking about having an expanded role after the Americans leave, for instance by volunteering to train the military. Iran is also exploring diplomatic relations with Egypt, which it has not had in years.

In this U.S. election season, presidential candidates will be tempted to propose strategies to contain Iran’s aspirations. To be seriously effective, such plans would require Arab countries as well as Russia and China, major trading partners of Iran, to sign on to a concerted policy of isolating the country. That’s unlikely to happen, given the Arab world’s preoccupation with Libya and Syria and the eagerness of Russia and China to do business with Iran.

Moreover, if the U.S. confronts Iran directly, it would probably work to the advantage of Iranian leaders, allowing them to divert attention from domestic woes such as inflation, unemployment and the embarrassing alienation between Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The U.S. should not hand them that opportunity.

The alternative is to let Iran’s ambitious regional strategy play out. So far, it hasn’t gone so well. Iran has clashed over Syria with Turkey, which is hosting anti-Assad forces. And Iran’s strained relations with the other big Mideast power, Saudi Arabia, have been tested anew by the Washington plot and by the suspicious assassination in May of a Saudi diplomat in Karachi, Pakistan.

Iran expects greater influence in Iraq and Afghanistan once U.S. troops leave, but with that will come greater burdens. Once absent, America can no longer be the focus of opposition in both places. Instead, Iran may replace the U.S. as the target of popular anger, blamed for the failure of government to meet people’s needs. Iran may prove no more able to pacify Iraq and Afghanistan than the U.S. has been. Iran is adept at causing security headaches in the region but is untested when it comes to resolving them.

Failure on that front would leave Iran, rather than the U.S., in the middle of renewed civil conflict in Iraq or Afghanistan. It also would have direct implications for Iran domestically. Renewed chaos in either country would send refugees flooding into Iran and increase drug trafficking and violence in the border areas.

Iran may come to remember fondly the period when the U.S. military absorbed resentments in the region.

(Vali Nasr is a Bloomberg View columnist and a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this article: Vali Nasr at vali.nasr@tufts.edu

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-31/why-contain-iran-when-its-own-aims-will-do-just-that-vali-nasr.html

Amid Syria protests, businessmen remain loyal to President Assad

By Reese Erlich, Correspondent –
posted October 28, 2011 –

The economic reforms of President Assad helped earn the loyalty of businessmen. Without their support, his government would be in far greater danger of collapse due to Syria protests.

Damascus- Rana Issa, the owner of an advertising and marketing business in Damascus is struggling. She’s had to lay off five of her 20 employees in the seven months of political and economic upheaval since Syria‘s antigovernment uprising began.

But unlike the street demonstrators, Ms. Issa doesn’t blame President Bashar al-Assad‘s government for her woes. As a Palestinian, Issa expresses strong support for his government, which she says has afforded more rights to Palestinian refugees and their children than either Israel or other Arab countries.

“We feel secure with Dr. Bashar al-Assad as president,” she says. “He has achieved a lot of reforms. The opposition hasn’t given him enough time.”

Some Syrian cities have been persistently roiled by protests; today, at least 30 protesters were reported killed across the country – the highest toll in weeks – with the unrest focused in Homs and Hama. But the two biggest cities, Damascus and Aleppo, have seen much smaller demonstrations because the cities’ business communities continue to favor the government, says Nabil Sukkar, a former World Bank economist who now heads an economic consulting firm in Damascus.

Drastic drops in tourism revenue and biting sanctions have taken a toll on the Syrian economy. While Syria’s gross domestic product grew by 3 percent last year, the IMF predicts a negative 2 percent this year. However, large- and medium-sized businesses, which the West hopes to turn against the regime with its sanctions, remain largely supportive of the Assad regime.

Syria’s big business elite is closely intertwined with the ruling Baath Party through financial and family ties. Disloyalty to the government can mean not only loss of lucrative government contracts, but political isolation and even jail.

Mr. Sukkar says big business leaders are pragmatic. “They expect the unrest to end sooner or later. The regime is well entrenched. The Army is certainly loyal to the government.”

Decline in tourists hurts business, however

However, some small businessmen, suffering financially because of the tourism decline and sanctions spurred by the regime’s crackdown, have shifted to the opposition.

The owner of a clothing business in Damascus’ main souk, or marketplace, says he used to be a strong supporter of Assad, but he blames the government for the collapse in tourism and the general decline in business activity. The business owner, who asked to remain anonymous, says he has had only one foreign customer in the last three months. They’re usually the mainstay of his business.

“The souk is like a graveyard,” he says.

He now supports the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist political party that has been active in the street demonstrations against Mr. Assad. The government accuses the Brotherhood of being an extremist group seeking to impose an Islamic state on Syria, but the shopkeeper considers them moderates, likening them to the elected Islamist government in Turkey.

The Muslim Brotherhood “wants an end to corruption,” he says. “Young people are fighting for their rights.”

Why businessmen are loyal to Assad

Conflicting attitudes towards the Assad government date back to economic changes that began in 2004, when Syria shifted from a centrally managed economy to a more privatized one. The business elite benefited as the government allowed creation of private banks, insurance companies, and an airline.

The growth of large corporations in turn spurred creation of small- and medium-sized companies such as the marketing firm owned by Rana Issa. Government policies created economic growth and loyalty among business leaders.

But the new liberalization policy also amplified Syria’s system of crony capitalism, leading to charges of widespread corruption.

Demonstrators have singled out Rami Makhlouf, for example, a cousin of President Assad and owner of the country’s largest cell phone company. Critics say he’s made tens of millions of dollars due to family connections.

Bouthaina Shaaban, a top adviser to the president, admits that corruption remains a serious problem in Syria. “Rami Makhlouf isn’t the only one who made money in the past period,” she says in an interview at the presidential palace. “There are many people, big capitalists, who made a lot of money.”

But, she argues, the government has taken steps to reform. “This crisis has made us 1,000 more times more aware,” Ms. Shaaban says.

Detrimental effect of sanctions

The crisis has been made worse by economic sanctions imposed by the US and Europe, says Shaaban. The US prohibits the export of most American products to Syria and has levied sanctions against some Syrian leaders. In May, the EU imposed an arms embargo on Syria, and a travel ban and assets freeze on selected Syrian leaders. In September the EU severely restricted crude oil imports.

So far, the sanctions haven’t shaken support for the government, according to Nabil Toumeh, CEO of Toumeh Orient Group, a large Syrian conglomerate. Business people are angry at the West because the sanctions are being widely applied, not just against Syrian political leaders.

Mr. Toumeh’s long-time Austrian supplier of magazine printing paper recently stopped shipments because of the sanctions. Sanctions are also hurting his construction company because he can no longer import construction material from Switzerland, and buying the same material from another country is quite expensive, he says. He’s had to lay off workers.

Although sanctions are likely to make life more difficult for business people by driving up costs, they won’t bring down a government that has popular support, according to Toumeh. Instead, businesses will find ways around the sanctions, Toumeh says. “Merchants say if the door is closed, you open another.”

Seventy percent of the Syrian economy is controlled by the private sector, giving the business elite tremendous political clout as well. Economist Sukkar says if big business shifts sides, it could spell an end to the government, but that’s not likely in the short run.

“If there are any strikes or serious opposition on the part of the business community, they could paralyze the economy,” he says. “If that happened here, it would be disastrous. But frankly I don’t see that happening.”

Mr. Erlich received a grant from the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting for his coverage of Syria.

Iran, the Arab intifada and the end of the ‘Middle East’

Arshin Adib-Moghaddam–

Once upon a time there was a United States naval officer who invented a region he called the “Middle East”. His name was Alfred Thayer Mayhan (1840-1914) and he lived during a period when this “Middle East” was subjugated and colonized, when it was turned into a geopolitical “region” that could be defined by the office of a naval strategist whose penchant for US imperialism made him famous.Since then, there exists a place the “West” imagines as the “Middle East” as if it has an existence of its own. Yet this “Middle East” is not merely a jolly good imperial fantasy. The Euro-Americo-centric designation buttresses the West’s claim to hegemony, re-inscribing dependency into the very consciousness of the peoples and governments acting in that area. It is also distortive because it suggests that the “West” can control events there. It is indicative of this illusion that the “Middle East” is the only “region” that is still officially defined from the perspective of Europe and America.But the old (post-) “colonial” “Middle East” is withering away, at least since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. The ensuing mayhem, the immense loss of life and the horrific images of torture and death that accompanied that devastating war put psychological and material boundaries on US foreign policies. The “Vietnam syndrome” has turned into an “Iraq pathology”, exactly because political elites in the US were forced to accept that there are no military solutions to the conflicts in the region and that a military victory does not necessarily yield a strategic advantage. There seems to be an emerging understanding that events cannot be controlled by the barrel of the gun, that the area we have called the “Middle East” can’t be defined from here anymore, that there is both reciprocity (them affecting us) and autonomy (them doing what they want beyond our control).

As such, the Iraq war was a major step towards a post-American order in the area exactly because it revealed the impotence of military might in the contemporary international system. It also signaled the demise of the “Middle East” as a region defined in terms of dependency on us. Today, when we look at the map we don’t see an abstraction anymore, but concrete events, memories–Abu Ghraib, Saddam Hussein, Gadaffi–and Tahrir square, civil society, democracy, calls for liberty, empowerment, revolution!

It is within this context of a non-colonial future that the Arab intifada can be interpreted. If the revolution in Iran of 1979 uprooted a pro-western dictatorship from the country, the Arab uprisings have created their own possibility for independence. After all, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and Hosni Mubarak were quite comparable to the shah; kings of kings who were dependent on the United States and skeptical of democratic accountability. “King of kings” was also a preferred title of Muammar Gaddafi, who lost the last residues of ideological support from his people when he turned himself over to the Bush administration and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair during their inglorious “war on terror”. Add Turkey’s increasing distance from the US and its confrontation with Israel to the mix and what emerges is a region that has ceased to function in a colonial mode.

What we are witnessing, then, is the second coming of independence, which promises a non-colonial order. It signals the end of the “Middle East”, which would translate into the end of dependency on the “West”. This is salutary for Europe and the United States, as well, if we finally accept and appreciate that non-western societies are writing their own history. They don’t need us to dictate words to them and to pester them with our patronizing wisdom. This is what the Iraq war and the uprisings should have taught us.

And then there is Iran, of course, which in 1979, much like Castro’s Cuba two decades before, instituted a revolutionary narrative advocating radical independence for the country, the region and the “global south”. The revolutionary emphasis on independence is one of the main reasons why Iran refers to the Arab uprisings as “awakenings”. In the jargon of the revolutionaries of 1979, including Ayatollah Khomeini, being “awake” (or “bidar” in Persian) signified the prelude to revolutionary action: a society that was ready to struggle for its independence.

Of course, there are also many in Tehran who are delusional enough to assume that the Arab revolts are modeled after the Islamic revolution of 1979. Those Persian fantasies need to be ignored. But by and large the emerging post-American order is viewed with immense optimism in Iran and a good dash of anxiety, too. Optimism, because Iranian strategists assume (rightly so in my opinion) that governments that are more responsive to the preferences of their societies will yield foreign policies that are more friendly to the Palestinian cause and Iran itself, and by implication less acquiescent to the United States and Israel.

Below the surface, however, there is anxiety too, especially among the right wing, which is subduing the demands of Iran’s powerful civil society. They are aware that Iranians have been plotting their own intifada to reform the state for quite some time now and that today democracy and human rights, not only independence, are the measure of successful governance in the Arab and Islamic worlds. In the middle-to-long term, the Iranian state, which perceives itself a major player in this area, can’t be oblivious to that brave new world and its anti-authoritarian norms.-Published 27/10/2011 © bitterlemons-international.org


Arshin Adib-Moghaddam teaches at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London and is author of “A Metahistory of the Clash of Civilizations” (Hurst & Columbia U.

From Bourguiba to Ghannouch

Thursday 27 October 2011
By Adel Al Toraifi

On 27 August, 1987, the National Security Court in Tunisia began the trial of 90 defendants – affiliated to Islamist movements – on charges of attempting to overthrow the ruling regime and cooperating with a foreign state (Iran). 35 people received sentences ranging from capital punishment to life imprisonment; Rashid Ghannouchi was sentenced to life imprisonment and hard labour. These sentences failed to satisfy Tunisian President Habib Bourguiba, who in a conversation with the then Tunisian Interior Minister described them as “lenient.” Andrew Borowiec recounted this incident as follows “Ben Ali as well as Justice Minister Mohammed Salah Ayari pleaded with Bourguiba that there were no legal grounds for such action [re-trial] as the case was already closed. Bourguiba left the room but, prompted by his intimate advisers, asked again for Ghannouchi’s head” (Modern Tunisia: A Democratic Apprenticeship, 1998). It perhaps failed to cross Bourguiba’s mind that the then young Sheikh [Ghannouchi] would live in exile for 25 years, only to return to Tunisia victoriously as his – banned – Islamist party finished in first place in the first free elections following the ouster of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Islamists participated in the 1989 Tunisian parliamentary elections, and claimed to have won around 40 percent of the vote before the regime overturned the election results. Today, the Al-Nahda party has regained its electoral rights. What is interesting is that this party achieved the same percentage of the vote that it claimed to have won over 25 years ago. So what has changed between 1989 and 2011?
Proponents of the “Arab Spring” argue that we are facing non-ideological popular uprisings, and that the majority of the populations in these countries have simply gotten sick and tired of the threats made by these oppressive regimes to the effect that without them the Islamists would come to power or the country would be destabilized. Therefore, we are now being promised a new era where the spirit of citizenship and political participation will prevail amongst all political and ideological currents, including the Islamists. Some have even gone so far as to predict that this year’s events will result in the Islamist organizations, in particular, undergoing ideological and organizational changes in line with the new political era. However have the Islamists truly changed over the past decades or are we just witnessing a change in their political tactics and method, rather than true ideological changes?
It is interesting that Islamists in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya have resorted to issuing the same reassurances and pledges about preserving and maintaining foreign investment contracts and international agreements, in an attempt to send a message of composure and confidence to western governments to the effect that they will not repeal international treaties and contracts signed between their countries and the western world. At the time that Libya was witnessing Gaddafi’s inhumane death, National Transitional Council [NTC] Chairman Mustafa Abdul-Jalil underlined his intention to (personally) review and amend Libya’s laws to ensure that these conform with Islamic Sharia law. Abdul-Jalil also stressed that Libya would continue to honour its commitments and contracts with the outside world. As he pledged to repeal the polygamy prohibition law, NTC Deputy Chairman – Libyan Human Rights lawyer Abdul Hafiz Ghoga – reaffirmed the NTC’s commitment to respecting Libya’s contracts with foreign countries.
In Tunisia, as soon as the al-Nahda party’s victory in the parliamentary elections was announced, Abdul Hamid Jalasi – a member of the al-Nahda party’s Executive Bureau – came out to tell foreign journalists that his party will guarantee Tunisia’s “commercial and economic” partners that their contracts are safe, and that his party pledges to provide every guarantee for foreign investment. Meanwhile, his colleague Noureddine El Bhiri – also a member of the al-Nahda party’s Executive Bureau – told Agence France-Presse [AFP] that al-Nahda is committed to “rebuilding constitutional institutions based on the respect of the law, the independency of the judiciary, respecting the rights of women…and equality between Tunisians whatever their religion, their sex, or their social status.”
If the Islamists have truly changed, then why are they so keen to confirm their good intentions? One might say that this is natural after decades of defamation and malicious reports that were put forward by security apparatus in some Arab countries. But what about the long history of violence, use of arms, takfirism, and justification of extremism practiced by a large number of Islamists across the Arab world? Some might answer by saying – and they are right – that the Islamists are not one single current and that they are separated by wide differences and minute details. But doesn’t this also apply to the Arab regimes that these radical parties and groups are confronting? Is it logical that we allow these religious groups and parties to defend themselves, their history, and their right to participate in politics, and then accept their accounts of the collapsed regimes? The truth is that the Islamists, at one point in time or another, were partners of the regimes that they are now accusing of corruption and tyranny!
Didn’t the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt describe the 1952 coup [overthrowing the Egyptian monarchy] as a “blessed movement” and were partners in justifying this revolution? Didn’t the Shiite mullahs and their Islamist followers hijack the 1979 revolution in Iran? Didn’t Rashid Ghannouchi – as he himself recounted – agree with Ben Ali on starting a new era and participating in the elections after Ben Ali released thousands of Islamist prisoners in 1988? Didn’t the Islamists bring President Omar al-Bashir and the “Salvation” government to power in Sudan in 1989? Didn’t al-Zindani and his party [Yemeni Muslim Brotherhood] support President Ali Abdullah Saleh in the mid-nineties? Didn’t the Islamists reconcile with President Bouteflika in Algeria? Weren’t members of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group set free following talks between the Gaddafi International Charity and Development Foundation [GICDF] and symbols of the Islamist movement like Abdulhakim Belhadj and Ali al-Salabi? How could Rashid Ghannouchi say that his party would never ban the “bikini” or alcohol? How could he pledge not to interfere in personal liberties and even praise the “Code of Personal Status” laws issued by Bourguiba in 1956 as being a juristic achievement? Who is the true secularist in this case, the person who uses religion as a vehicle to come to power or the benevolent autocrat who wants to modernize religion?

The problem of some Islamist party members is that their discourse is based on illusions, and they portray their political dispute with current and former regimes as part of a religious conflict whereas in reality it is a worldly conflict over positions and spoils. If some Islamists are willing to make all those religious and political concessions, and even pledge to maintain all the commercial and political contracts and agreements signed by the state, then why portray the era under Bourguiba or Ben Ali as being evil and oppressive, especially if they are willing to preserve their legal heritage, economic policies and foreign relations?
The truth is that tyranny, secular or Islamist, is a problem in itself. The attempts by some Islamists to portray themselves as victims of the previous era without admitting any responsibility is a form of self-exoneration and a dishonest account of decades of participation and conflict over power. Some Islamists engaged in violence while others reconciled with dictators like Gaddafi and Bashar al-Assad and became regular guests at their tables. The Islamists were offenders as much as they were victims. They came to power several times and met with failure.
In his book entitled “Bourguiba: A Leader’s Biography” (1999), former Tunisian Minister al-Taher Belkhouja reveals that former Tunisian President Bourguiba “feared religious fanaticism, and sought to spread the spirit of tolerance and consistency with the requirements of the era. We, as cabinet members and senior officials, used to gather around him every year on the occasion of the Prophet’s (pbuh) birthday at the Mosque of Companion [of the Prophet] Abu Zama el-Balaui (also known as Sidi Sahbi mosque) in Kairouan to listen to the sermon and interpretative judgments he would give where he would underline the necessity of promoting religious practices to become more tolerant.”

The western support for authoritarian regimes in the Middle East

A blogger view about the role of Western countries in the Syrian case.

So I guess you hate Bush, Condoleeza Rice, Cheney and most of the US present Congress and practically the whole western world for the unpunished Gaza crimes on children. And what about Chirac and the other Europeans countries who stood silent when in 2006 children were killed in South of Lebanon? Forgotten?

I condemn western countries that have taken advantages of the inherent flaws and weaknesses in some personalities in the Middle east to manipulate them to reach their own selfish goal.
The Shah, Mobarak, Ben Ali, Saleh, Ataturk were for decades pushed and encouraged by Western countries to oppress their people in the name of ‘fear” either from communism or Islam.
The occupation of Palestine sponsored by western countries has created a generation of Arab and regional authoritarians regime cherished and manipulated by the Western countries.
Syria is the only country that had a leadership opposed to the manipulation by the West, the only “non-puppet” regime in the area.

Just for that, it deserves admiration.

It has been targeted relentlessly to join the cohort of pro-west leaders. While the corruption has been present, the country has had a consistent support of the Palestinian conflict at the core of the whole illness of the region.
With the cost of not developing its economy as fast as other countries fed with millions of dollars for their submission, Syria has stood slow but independent.

The latest attack , using the “arab spring” movement as a cover up is actually an attempt of a coup d’etat. That the government reacts with indiscriminated violence is not justified but understandable when it stands against powerful countries like the US, France, the UK who can manipulate people and media easily.

If you look at it this way, deaths are as much imputable to the Western countries incitations to hatred and to a change of regime that would have made Syria another puppet as to the awkward and excessive methods used by the government on the defense. The government’s aim was to stop and prevent demonstrations that could degenerate into civil war and break the resistance Syria had toward western plans in the region in support of Israel. It was also certainly to keep the power structure intact and in the same hands.

Your hatred is natural but it should also be directed to the countries behind this situation, while you probably believe they are genuinely calling for ‘freedom’ and democracy.

We all care for the lives of children, but foreign policy and greed are cynical, they don’t value human lives.

http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/?p=12558&cp=2#comment-280533

Arab Spring boosts political Islam, but which kind?

By Tom Heneghan, Religion Editor | Reuters –

(Reuters) – More democracy is bringing more political Islam in the countries of the Arab Spring, but Islamist statements about sharia or religion in politics are only rough indicators of what the real effect might be.

The strong showing of Tunisia’s moderate Islamists in Sunday’s election and a promise by Libyan National Transitional Council leader Mustafa Abdel Jalil to uphold sharia have highlighted the bigger role Islamists will play after the fall of the autocrats who opposed them.

These Islamists must now work out how to integrate more Islam into new democratic systems. Many terms used in the debate are ambiguous and some, especially the concept of sharia, are often misunderstood by non-Muslims.

Jan Michiel Otto, a Dutch law professor who led a recent study of how 12 Muslim countries apply sharia, said political Islam covers a broad spectrum of approaches.

“If sharia is introduced, you don’t know what you’ll get,” said the Leiden University professor, editor of the book Sharia Incorporated. His study indicated that, contrary to what many Western observers might think, more Islam did not always mean less liberty.

Yasin Aktay, a Turkish sociologist at Selcuk University in Konya, said Sharia itself was not a defined legal code and not limited to the harsh physical punishments seen in Saudi Arabia or Iran.

“That’s a fetishised version of sharia,” he said.

ENNAHDA LEADS THE WAY

Many Middle Eastern constitutions already enshrine Islam as the official religion and mention sharia as the basis of law, but also have civil and penal codes based on European models.

Apart from Saudi Arabia, which has only Islamic law, Middle Eastern countries apply a complicated mix of religious and civil law. Sharia can be applied almost symbolically in one country, moderately in another and strictly in a third.

Ennahda, the Islamist party leading the vote for Tunisia’s constituent assembly, is the first in the Arab Spring countries to have to start spelling out how much Islam it wants.

It says it respects democracy and human rights and wants to work with secularist parties to draft a new constitution. Its leader Rachid Ghannouchi has long advocated moderate Islamist policies like those of the AKP, the ruling party in Turkey.

The Tunisian constitution declares Islam as the official religion but does not mention sharia as the foundation of the legal system. Given the country’s strong secularist traditions, Ennahda would face serious opposition if it tried to have sharia declared the basis of law there.

Aktay said Ghannouchi’s writings in the 1980s helped to influence Turkish Islamists to shift their paradigm from seeking a state based on sharia to entering democratic politics.

Since then, the AKP’s success in Turkey has served as a model for Ghannouchi as he entered practical politics in Tunisia, he added.

EGYPT’S MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD

Egypt, which is due to elect a new lower house of parliament by early December, describes Islam as the state religion in its constitution and calls it the main source of laws.

The Muslim Brotherhood is expected to emerge as the largest party. Its bid to build a “Democratic Alliance” has foundered, with most of the liberal and rival Islamist groups splitting away to run on their own or form other blocs.

“I don’t believe the Brotherhood will claim more than 25 percent of the parliamentary seats, which is an important bloc but not a majority,” said Hassan Abu Taleb from Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.

Egypt has also allowed several Salafist groups to run. The Salafists, who Abu Taleb said could take up to 10 percent of the vote, want strict implementation of Islamic laws, including those their critics say are anti-democratic.

LIBYA

In Libya, former dictator Muammar Gaddafi ruled by decrees that included mention of Islam as the state religion and sharia as the inspiration for at least some laws.

NTC chairman Jalil surprised some Western observers on Sunday by saying sharia would be the source of Libyan law, but he had already spoken in more detail about it.

“We seek a state of law, prosperity and one where sharia is the main source for legislation, and this requires many things and conditions,” he said in early September, adding that “extremist ideology” would not be tolerated.

The exact place of sharia in the legal system in practice will only be settled once a new constitution is written by a constituent assembly and approved by a referendum.

Libya’s Muslim Brotherhood has fewer than 1,000 members because under Gaddafi recruitment was secretive and restricted to elites, said Alamin Belhaj, a member of the NTC and a senior member of the group.

SYRIA

Syria, where an uprising against President Bashar al-Assad has been raging since March, has a secularist government but mentions Islam as the source of law in its constitution.

The main opposition body, the National Council, has so far named 19 members to its general secretariat. Four are members of Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood and six are independent Islamists.

It has yet to spell out its platform or make clear what kind of a state should take over, if Assad is overthrown.

“In Syria, the Islamist current is a moderate movement,” said Omar Idlibi, an activist with the grassroots Local Coordination Committees.

(Reporting by Tom Heneghan in Paris, Tamim Elyan and Shaimaa Fayed in Cairo and Mariam Karouny in Beirut; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

The End of Iraq War: A complete neocon defeat

Jonathan Steele
Guardian.co.uk  Sunday 23 October 2011

Thanks to the toppling of Saddam Hussein, Iran’s greatest enemy, Tehran’s influence in Iraq is stronger than America’s

The Iraq war is over. Buried by the news from Libya, Barack Obama announced late on Friday that all US troops will leave Iraq by 31 December.

The president put a brave face on it, claiming he was fulfilling an election promise to end the war, though he had actually been supporting the Pentagon’s effort to make a deal with Iraq’s prime minister Nouri al-Maliki to keep US bases and several thousand troops there indefinitely.

The talks broke down because Moqtada al-Sadr’s members of parliament and other Iraqi nationalists insisted that US troops be subject to Iraqi law. In every country where they are based the US insists on legal immunity and refuses to let troops be tried by foreigners. In Iraq the issue is especially sensitive after numerous US murders of civilians and the Abu Ghraib scandal in which Iraqi prisoners were sexually humiliated. In almost every case where US courts tried US troops, soldiers were acquitted or received relatively brief prison sentences.

The final troop withdrawal marks a complete defeat for Bush’s Iraq project. The neocons’ grand plan to use the 2003 invasion to turn the country into a secure pro-western democracy and a garrison for US bases that could put pressure on Syria and Iran lies in tatters.

Their hopes of making Iraq a democratic model for the Middle East have been tipped on their head. The instability and bloodshed which the US unleashed in Iraq were the example that Arabs sought to avoid, not emulate. This year’s autonomous surge for democracy in Egypt and Tunisia has done far more to galvanise the region and undermine its dictatorships than anything the US did in Iraq. And when the Arab spring dawned, the Iraqi government found itself on the defensive as demonstrators took to the streets of Baghdad and Basra to protest against Maliki’s authoritarianism and his government’s US-supported clampdown on trade union activity. Maliki hosted two Syrian government delegations this summer and has refused to criticise Bashar al-Assad’s shooting of protesters.

But the neocons’ biggest defeat is that, thanks to Bush’s toppling of Saddam Hussein, Iran’s greatest enemy, Tehran’s influence in Iraq is much stronger today than is America’s. Iran does not control Iraq but Tehran no longer has anything to fear from its western neighbour now that a Shia-dominated government sits in Baghdad, made up of parties whose leaders spent long years of exile in Iran under Saddam or, like Sadr, have lived there more recently.

The US Republicans are accusing Obama of giving in to Iran by pulling all US troops out. Their knee-jerk reaction is rich and only shows the bankruptcy of their slogans, since it was Bush who gave Tehran its strategic opening by invading Iraq, just as it was Bush in the dying weeks of his presidency who signed the agreement to withdraw all US troops by the end of 2011, which Obama was hoping to amend. But Senator John McCain was right when he said Obama’s announcement would be viewed “as a strategic victory for our enemies in the Middle East, especially the Iranian regime, which has worked relentlessly to ensure a full withdrawal of US troops from Iraq”. A pity that he did not pin the blame on Bush (and Tony Blair) who made it all possible.

The two former leaders’ memoirs show they have learnt no lessons, even though their reputations in history will never be able to shake the disaster off.

Whether the lessons have been taken on board by the current US and British leaders is more important. Nato’s relative success in the Libyan campaign is already being used to draw a veil over the past. Indeed, the fortuitous timing of Gaddafi’s death has knocked the news of the US withdrawal from Iraq almost entirely off the media’s agenda.

But the past is still with us. A key lesson from Iraq is that putting western boots on the ground in a foreign war, particularly in a Muslim country, is madness. That point seemed to have been learnt when US, British and French officials asked the UN security council in March to authorise its campaign in Libya. They promised there would be no ground troops or occupation.

This should also apply to Afghanistan where Obama claims to be fighting a war of necessity, unlike the war in Iraq which he calls one of choice. The distinction is false, and the question now is whether he will pull all US troops out by 2014.

On the pattern of the aborted deal with Iraq, his officials are trying to negotiate an arrangement with the Karzai government which will authorise the indefinite basing of thousands of US troops, to be described as trainers and advisers, after combat forces leave. This would continue the folly of fuelling the country’s long-running civil war. Now that al-Qaida has been driven from Afghanistan, Washington should support negotiations for a government of national unity that includes the Taliban and ends the fighting among Afghans. Iraq is no haven of guaranteed stability but, without the presence of US combat troops for the last 15 months, it has achieved an uneasy peace. If talks in Afghanistan are seriously encouraged, it could go the same way once foreign troops at last withdraw.

The ‘great game’ in Syria

By Alastair Crooke

This summer, a senior Saudi official told John Hannah [1], former United States vice president Dick Cheney’s former chief-of-staff, that from the outset of the Syrian upheaval in March, the king has believed that regime change in Syria would be highly beneficial to Saudi interests: “The king knows that other than the collapse of the Islamic Republic itself, nothing would weaken Iran more than losing Syria,” said the official.

This is today’s “great game”: the formula for playing it has changed; the US-instigated “color” revolutions in the former Soviet republics have given way to a bloodier, and more multi-layered process today, but the underlying psychology remains unchanged.

The huge technical requirements of mounting such a complex

game in Syria are indeed prodigious: but in focussing so closely on technique and on coordinating diverse interests, inevitably something important may recede from view, too.

Europeans and Americans and certain Gulf states may see the Syria game as the logical successor to the supposedly successful Libya “game” in remaking the Middle East, but the very tools that are being used on their behalf are highly combustible and may yet return to haunt them – as was experienced in the wake of the 1980s “victory” in Afghanistan.

It will not be for the first time that Western interests sought to use others for their ends, only to find they have instead been used.

In any event, the tactics in Syria, in spite of heavy investment, seem to be failing. Yet Western strategy, in response to the continuing cascade of new events in the region, remains curiously static, grounded in gaming the awakening and tied ultimately to the fragile thread connecting an 88-year-old king to life.

There seems to be little thought about the strategic landscape when, and as, that thread snaps. We may yet see the prevailing calculus turned inside out: nobody knows. But does the West really believe that being tied into a model of Gulf monarchical legitimacy and conservatism in an era of popular disaffection to be a viable posture – even if those states do buy more Western weapons?

What then is the new anatomy of the great game? In the past, color revolutions were largely blueprinted in the offices of the political consultancies of “K” Street in Washington. But in the new format, the “technicians” attempting to shape the region [2] , hail directly from the US government: according to reports by senior official sources in the region, Jeffrey Feltman, a former ambassador in Lebanon, and presently assistant secretary of state, as chief coordinator [3], together with two former US ambassadors, Ron Schlicher and David Hale, who is also the new US Middle East Peace Envoy.

And instead of an operations center established in some phony “Friends of Syria” organization established in Washington, there is a gold-plated operations center located in Doha, financed, according to a number of sources, by big Qatari money.

The origins of the present attempt to refashion the Middle East lie with the aftermath of Israel’s failure in 2006 to seriously damage Hezbollah. In the post-conflict autopsy, Syria was spotlighted as the vulnerable lynchpin connecting Hezbollah to Iran. And it was Prince Bandar of Saudi Arabia who planted the first seed: hinting to US officials that something indeed might be done about this Syria connector, but only through using the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, adding quickly in response to the predictable demurs, that managing the Syrian Brotherhood and other Islamists could safely be left to him.

John Hannah noted on ForeignPolicy.com [4] that “Bandar working without reference to US interests is clearly cause for concern; but Bandar working as a partner against a common Iranian enemy is a major strategic asset”. Bandar was co-opted.

Hypothetical planning suddenly metamorphosed into concrete action only earlier this year, after the fall of Saad Hariri’s government in Lebanon, and the overthrow of president Hosni Mubarak in Egypt: Suddenly, Israel seemed vulnerable, and a weakened Syria, enmired in troubles, held a strategic allure.

In parallel, Qatar had stepped to the fore, as Azmi Bishara, a pan-Arabist, former Israeli parliament member, expelled from the Knesset and now established in Doha, architected a schema through which television – as various in the Arabic press have reported [5] – that is, al-Jazeera, would not just report revolution, but instantiate it for the region – or at least this is what was believed in Doha in the wake of the Tunisia and Egyptian uprisings.

This was a new evolution over the old model: Hubristic television, rather than mere media management. But Qatar was not merely trying to leverage human suffering into an international intervention by endlessly repeating “reforms are not enough” and the “inevitability” of Assad’s fall, but also – as in Libya – Qatar was directly involved as a key operational actor and financier.

The next stage was to draw French President Nikolas Sarkozy into the campaign through the emir of Qatar’s expansive nature and ties to Sarkozy, supplemented by Feltman’s lobbying. An “Elysee team” of Jean-David Levite, Nicholas Gallet and Sarkozy, was established, with Sarkozy’s wife enlisting Bernard Henri-Levy, the arch promoter of the Benghazi Transitional Council model that had been so effective in inflating North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) into an instrument of regime change.

Finally, President Barack Obama delegated Turkey [6] to play point on Syria’s border. Both of the latter components however are not without their challenges from their own security arms, who are skeptical of the efficacy of the Transitional Council model, and opposed to military intervention.

The Turkish leadership, in particular, is pushed by party pressures in one direction [7] , whilst at another there are deep misgivings about Turkey becoming a NATO “corridor” into Syria. Even Bandar is not without challenges: he has no political umbrella from the king, and others in the family are playing other Islamist cards to different ends.

In operational terms, Feltman and his team coordinate, Qatar hosts the “war room”, the “news room” and holds the purse strings, Paris and Doha lead on pushing the Transitional Council model, whilst Bandar [8] and Turkey jointly manage the Sunni theater in-country, both armed and unarmed.

The Salafist component of armed and combat experienced fighters was to have been managed within this framework, but increasingly they went their own way, answering to a different agenda, and having separate finances.

If the scope of the Syria “game” – for let us not forget the many killed (including civilians, security forces, and armed fighters) make it no game – is on a different scale to the early “color” revolutions, so its defects are greater too. The NTC paradigm, already displaying its flaws in Libya, is even more starkly defective in Syria, with the opposition “council” put together by Turkey, France and Qatar caught in a catch-22 situation. The Syrian security structures have remained rock solid [9] through seven months – defections have been negligible – and Assad’s popular support base is intact.

Only external intervention could change that equation, but for the opposition to call for it, would be tantamount to political suicide, and they know it. Doha and Paris [10] may continue to try to harass the world towards some intervention by maintaining attrition but the signs are that the internal opposition will opt to negotiate.

But the real danger in all this, as John Hannah himself notes on ForeignPolicy.com [11], is that the Saudis, “with their back to the wall”, “might once again fire up the old jihadist network and point it in the general direction of Shi’ite Iran”.

In fact, that is exactly what is happening, but the West does not seem to have noticed. As Foreign Affairs noted last week, Saudi and its Gulf allies are “firing up” the Salafists [12], not only to weaken Iran, but mainly in order to do what they see is necessary to survive – to disrupt and emasculate the awakenings which threaten absolute monarchism.

Salafists are being used for this end in Syria [13] , in Libya, in Egypt (see their huge Saudi flag waving turn-out in Tahrir Square in July ) [14] in Lebanon, Yemen [15] and Iraq.

Salafists may be generally viewed as non-political and pliable, but history is far from comforting. If you tell people often enough that they shall be the king-makers in the region and pour buckets-full of money at them, do not be surprised if they then metamorphose – yet again – into something very political and radical.

Michael Scheuer, the former head of the Central Intelligence Agency Bin Laden Unit, recently warned [16] that the Hillary Clinton-devised response to the Arab awakening, of implanting Western paradigms, by force if necessary, into the void of fallen regimes, will be seen as a “cultural war on Islam” and will set the seeds of a further round of radicalization.

Saudi Arabia is America’s ally. The US, as friends, should ask them if the fall of Assad, and the sectarian conflict that is almost certain to ensue, is really in their interest: Do they imagine that their Sunni allies in Iraq and Lebanon will escape the consequences? Do they really imagine that the Shi’ites of Iraq will not put two-and-two together and take harsh precautions?

One of the sad paradoxes to the sectarian “voice” adopted by the Gulf leaders to justify their repression of the awakening has been the undercutting of moderate Sunnis, now caught between the rock of being seen as a Western tool, and the hard place of Sunni Salafists just waiting for the chance to displace them.

Notes
1. See here.
2. See here.
3. See here and here.
4. See here.
5. Qataris seeking alternative for Waddah Khanfar to manage Al-Jazeera, Al-Intiqad, 20 September 2011.
6. See here.
7. See here.
8. See here.
9. See here.
10. See here.
11. See here.
12. See here.
13. See here.
14. See here.
15. See here.
16. See here.

Alastair Crooke is founder and director of Conflicts Forum and is a former adviser to the former EU Foreign Policy Chief, Javier Solana, from 1997-2003.

(Copyright 2011 Alastair Crooke.)

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