The army is showing strength and restraint. Zabadani as a ‘safe haven’ was a bad choice, it has no future: It is bordering Lebanon whose government officially support Bashar’s regime. The Lebanese will control the passage of people and weapons.
The FSA fighters and their mercenaries are therefore trapped and cannot move to any other place. If the hope that a ‘safe haven’ will encourage soldiers to defect, I doubt any soldier would want to find refuge into a besieged town. I think it may be the other way around.
The SNC was expecting that the death toll of the shelling will create the “Hama’ effect on the international community. It did not happen. In a way, it looks like the regime has been able to neutralize a large part of the armed rebels without killing anyone ( only one death was reported, despite the ‘heavy shelling’). Zabadani is now a prison for the rebels. Their freedom will be the subject of negotiations with their patrons, Turkey, Qatar and the SNC, under the auspices of the AL.
If the FSA/SNC thought they would create a Benghazi, it is a failure.
On Thursday 19 January, the FSA claims that Zabadani is Benghazi.
http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/?p=13169&cp=3#comment-291833