Category Archives: US Middle East Politics

The Syria National Council: Opposition or Resistance ?

JC–  3th October  2011—

Anti-regime activists consider that the president Bashar al Assad, his army and his government occupy Syria illegally or with no legitimacy.

Therefore they see themselves not as a democratic “opposition” but as a “Resistance” movement in exile, like the French Resistance operating from England to liberate France from the German.

Their strategy is to instigate revolts through peaceful local demonstrations or if this fails through a cold war using violence or a real war if they are able to get countries to help them, like what happened in Libya.

There is nothing democratic about their approach and they act from the unproven assumption that all the Syrian people are in agreement with their approach. They get active support for some western countries who have their own agenda in mind.

The “illegality” of the present government has been expressed unilaterally by a couple of Western countries who, for years, have already been sanctioning the Syrian government for its active support of the legitimate resistance of the Palestinians to the Western-supported Israeli occupation. This “deligitimization” is contrary to the chart of the UN and has been rejected by the Arab League, and most countries in the world.
By using videos of violence and demonstrations, the western media has played an important role in trying to convince the international community that the majority of Syrian are violently oppressed and that they all consider the current government as illegitimate.

Yet, unless there is a valid and reliable confirmation that the Syrian people are in majority in support of this so called “resistance’, all its acts are considered illegal and should be condemned as terrorist acts against a state and a government that is recognized and represented at the UN and all international institutions. Embassies of the countries that consider the present government as illegitimate are still in the capital.

I hope it clarifies (?) the situation of the crisis in Syria

American Exceptionalism and the Universality Fallacy

September 30, 2011–

In his speech this week at the Reagan Library, New Jersey governor Chris Christie posited a concept he called “earned American exceptionalism,” which seemed to favor influencing other countries through American example rather than assertive efforts to remake them in the American image. Christie said, “There is no better way to reinforce the likelihood that others in the world will opt for more open societies and economies than to demonstrate that our own system is working.”

This could be a welcome departure from the kind of “nation-building” adventurism that George W. Bush pursued in Iraq and which, under Obama, was placed at the heart of the American mission in Afghanistan. But it still seems to commingle sentiments of American exceptionalism with the idea of the universality of American values.

Could it be otherwise? Could America bask in its exceptionalism without being driven by universalist convictions that all peoples of the world should live under systems similar to ours? Perhaps not. But perhaps there is merit in pondering the sentiments of the people and leaders of Rome during the glory days of the Roman Republic, which lasted for five hundred years before it ran aground upon the rocks of an ongoing crisis of the regime.

There are some striking similarities between the stories of the two republics. Both got fed up with the tyrannies of monarchy and threw over their kings. Both then crafted delicate new systems based on principles of popular sovereignty. Both had, in the beginning, a narrow definition of popular sovereignty and then spent decades, even centuries, struggling to expand that definition. Both consolidated their natural geographic territories through expansion and then set out into the world. Both entered epic foreign struggles to protect weak allies from threatening aggressors (for Rome, the Punic Wars with Carthage, 264 BC–146 BC; for America, the struggle to save Europe, 1918–1989). Both ultimately triumphed in their epic struggles and found themselves the lone superpower in a unipolar world.

And like Americans of our day, Romans of the Republic considered their civic system to be a work of genius and utterly exceptional. Unlike Americans of our day, however, few in the Roman Republic felt their system should be, or could be, embraced by others in the mysterious ancient societies of the East.

In pondering this dichotomy, I am reminded of a scene in one of Colleen McCullough’s six magisterial historical novels recounting the last century of the Roman Republic. These narratives are, of course, fictional, but they are based on exhaustive research and probe with minute accuracy all aspects of Roman society, culture, customs and social mores. The scene in question involves Lucius Cornelius Sulla, a brilliant general who was of the generation just before the great Caesar. Sulla had a powerful personality and huge appetites and ambitions, and he wasn’t above resorting to violence in the pursuit of those ambitions. We might say he was cut from the same cloth as Tony Soprano.

We know from history that Sulla, during his days on the rise as a Roman senator and general, took an army to the Euphrates River. He went east because of problems in Asia Minor perpetrated by Mithridates VI of Pontus, who had designs on territory within Rome’s sphere of influence. So Sulla took his army to the Euphrates and then crossed into the territory of the Parthians. There he encountered the satrap of the Seleucians, Orobazus, who answered to the king of kings of Parthia.

McCullough, knowing this conversation took place but of course not knowing precisely what was said, manufactures the exchange. But, while the words are made up, the sentiments are entirely accurate as expressions of the two powerful men and the cultures that had nurtured them.

Orobazus greets Sulla by addressing him by his full name, Lucius Cornelius Sulla. Sulla says to the king, “Lucius Cornelius will do,” but Sulla himself takes pains to address Orobazus respectfully as “Lord Orobazus,” in keeping with his standing in his own territory.

Then Orobazus errs again, addressing Sulla as “my lord Lucius Cornelius.” So Sulla corrects him again: “Not ‘my lord,’ just plain Lucius Cornelius. In Rome there are no lords and no kings.”

Orobazus is puzzled. “We had heard it was so,” he says, “but we find it strange. You do follow the Greek way, then. How is it that Rome has grown so great, when no king heads the government?” For Orobazus, a lack of kings normally means small entities that end up warring against one another, as in Greece. But Rome had real power and yet no king. It was incomprehensible.

Sulla: “Rome is our king, Lord Orobazus. . . . We Romans subordinate ourselves to Rome, and only to Rome. We bend the knee to no one human, any more than we bend to the abstraction of an ideal. Rome is . . . our king.” Sulla offers himself as an example. He was not there on his own behalf but on behalf of Rome. “If we strike a treaty, it will be deposited in the temple of Jupiter . . . and there will remain—not my property, nor even bearing my name. A testament to the might of Rome.”

McCullough has Orobazus’s fellow Parthians listening rapt to these concepts, but totally confused. Orobazus says, “But a place, Lucius Cornelius, is jut a collection of objects! . . . How can a place generate such feeling, such nobility?”

Sulla: “For a while Rome was actually ruled by kings, until the men of Rome rejected the concept that a man could be mightier than the place which bred him. . . . No Roman man is greater than Rome.”

Finally, Orobazus lifts his hands in what McCullough calls the “age-old gesture of surrender” and says, “I cannot understand what you say, Lucius Cornelius.”

So Lucius Cornelius says, “Then let us pass to our reasons for being here today.” He proposes that Rome should allow the Parthians to hold sway over the territory east of the Euphrates. And Rome, because it needed to deal with Mithridates, would be able to have a sphere of influence in the territory to the west. And that, as history tells us, was the deal that was struck that day.

Perhaps this represents a worthy lesson from the West’s classical heritage. Romans considered their societal structures to be exceptional—and far superior to any other in the world. But they brought to their dealings with other societal leaders a respectful regard for their separate cultural values and the influences of their distinct cultures.

In short, they separated Roman exceptionalism from any thought of its universality. Rome’s hallowed traditions, developed by Romans, were for Romans. And other peoples would naturally operate according to their own hallowed traditions.

It might be politically impossible for any politician in today’s America to actually express a distinction between American exceptionalism and its universality. But it certainly would enhance American diplomacy if that distinction were allowed to serve as a greater guide in U.S. dealings with the great nations and leaders of other civilizations and other cultures.

Robert W. Merry is editor of The National Interest and the author of books on American history and foreign policy.


A win-win strategy for the Palestinians

A win-win strategy for the Palestinians
In any bargaining game, the key to success is leverage. Thus, even if their bid for statehood through the U.N. fails, the Palestinians still win.

By Barbara F. Walter and Andrew Kydd
September 29, 2011
Everyone knows that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’ bid for statehood through the United Nations Security Council will fail. Even if the Palestinians get the nine votes needed , the United States will veto it. And yet the strategy is brilliant. Why? Because the Palestinians win even if they lose.

To understand how this seemingly doomed effort is designed to work, one has to recognize the strategic game Abbas is playing. Abbas knows that time and public opinion are on his side. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can denounce the move, President Obama can end it, those opposed to it can call it foolish and self-defeating. But world reaction to Abbas’ request has been overwhelmingly positive and will become increasingly so with every move by Israel and the U.S. to block it.

The Palestinians are playing a long-term bargaining game, and any move toward the goal of statehood has to be considered a victory. Statehood will not come immediately, or when a vote is taken in the Security Council. What will happen is that support for it will slowly and surely increase among average citizens around the world. The extreme positions of Israel and the United States — their refusal to pursue real efforts to allow Palestinians to rule themselves and be free of military occupation — will be increasingly revealed, and tolerance for these positions, even among Israelis and Americans, will decline. Going to the Security Council knowing the bid will be publicly and persistently rejected, therefore, is an inspired strategy. Palestinians appear peaceful and reasonable. Israel and the United States do not.

In any bargaining game, the key to success is leverage. The Palestinian Authority has two broad sources of leverage. It can implicitly condone violence under the assumption that the more costly the conflict, the more likely Israel is to make concessions. Or it can pursue a nonviolent strategy mixing protest and diplomatic pressure.

For more than five years, the Palestinian Authority has pursued a disciplined nonviolent strategy against Israel. It has focused on building a state within the West Bank and rebuilding the infrastructure that was destroyed in the second intifada. The Palestinians have engaged in security cooperation with Israel to root out terrorists, and their security forces have been U.S. trained and supported. Certainly, the Palestinians have work to do. They still need to figure out their relationship to Hamas, as well as the Palestinian Authority’s willingness to tolerate violence. But Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad are as good as they get. These West Bank Palestinians are the long-hoped-for partners that Israel needs to have a secure and lasting peace.

The nonviolent strategy, however has failed to generate sufficient leverage against Israel to motivate concessions. Many Israelis attribute the current lack of violence to the wall they constructed to fence off the West Bank, ignoring the equally important shift in the Palestinian Authority’s strategy. Believing that the security problem has been solved by concrete and barbed wire, most mainstream Israelis feel no real need to negotiate. With the center demobilized, Israeli hard-liners have a clear field. The result is that Israeli maximalist dreams about ruling indirectly over a quiescent Palestinian population — or even better, gradually easing them off to Jordan — go uncontested because of the lack of urgency.

These dreams, however, will never lead to peace. Many, if not most, Palestinians are willing to settle for less than the 1967 border, less than full sovereignty in security terms and less than a full right of return for refugees. However, they will not settle for nothing, and the rest of the Muslim world, newly awakened by their spring and summer revolts, will support them. This leaves the Palestinian leadership in a familiar quandary. Palestinians can continue to pursue nonviolence, but this has failed to bring any movement from the Israelis. They can return to violence, which is temporarily popular and puts pressure on Israel but is immoral and self-defeating in the long run.

What Palestinians need is a third strategy that is nonviolent yet generates significant pressure on Israel to negotiate. Going to the U.N. is designed to do just that.

By asking for recognition at the U.N. while scrupulously avoiding violence, the Palestinians are, finally, pursuing an intelligent foreign policy that has the prospect of isolating their adversary and bringing international opinion on their side. If recognition as a state is achieved, the whole international context of the struggle shifts and the Israeli occupation becomes starkly anomalous. If the bid fails, public opinion will shift in the Palestinians’ favor and greater pressure will be placed on the U.S. and Israel to seek resolution on statehood. This is why Israel is fuming and Washington is frantically trying to divert attention back to the stalled peace process. Absent this move by the Palestinians, the U.S. would not even be talking about the topic. Now it dominates the international agenda.

The U.S. response has been reactive and hapless, as it was in the Arab Spring. President Obama’s political position is relatively weak, and his mild effort to pressure Israel to halt settlement expansion was resoundingly defeated. In fact, Israel this week approved plans to built more than 1,000 housing units in East Jerusalem despite pleas from U.S. and European diplomats. The political strength of Israel’s supporters in the U.S. ensures that there will be no political daylight between U.S. policy and that of the sitting Israeli prime minister. This is especially true if Republicans turn support for Israel into a partisan issue.

If the U.S. were more concerned with peace in the Middle East (and in protecting its interests) than with domestic politics, it would support the Palestinian bid for statehood. If the Palestinians see that nonviolent strategies can produce real results, and the Israelis face reality that despite the lull in terrorist attacks there is a growing price to be paid for continued occupation, the increasingly untenable stalemate will be one step closer to resolution.

Barbara F. Walter is a professor of political science in the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at UC San Diego. Andrew Kydd is an associate professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin, Madison.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-walter-palestinianbid-20110929,0,320923.story?

 

U.S. at Cross-Purposes in the Middle East

September 29, 2011 -Posted by Greg Scoblete  —

Hillel Fradkin and Lewis Libby have a long essay on America’s fading position in the new Middle East:

Taken together, these trends have called into question a number of strategic concepts on which American diplomacy in the Middle East has rested for decades:

• that a prosperous and democratic Turkey, anchored in the West, would, by example, draw other Muslim countries westward;

• that the failures of fascism, communism, and Shia theocracy, coupled with the enticements and pressures of a global economy, would in time lead the region, with Western help, to realign toward a liberal future in the broader community of nations;

• that the peace Israel reached with Egypt and Jordan would in time radiate outward into peace with other Arab states, and thus minimize the prospects of a major regional war;

• that the world community would prevent states in the region from getting nuclear weapons; and

• that regional divisions and American strength would prevent forces hostile to the US from dominating the region.

I think what’s evident from the above checklist of regional priorities is that they had failure baked in. The U.S. has had a mixed track record when it comes to preventing a major regional war – there was one almost every decade since 1970 – and two of them involved the United States. Nor is it clear why Washington expected that the Middle East would, with “Western help,” realign to a “liberal future” as it simultaneously stopped hostile states from dominating the region and prevented them from acquiring nuclear weapons. “Western help” was (and is) directed toward illiberal states in the region as a bulwark against “forces hostile to the United States.” The process of doing one thing undermines the other.

Put in more concrete terms: is there anyone who sincerely believes that you can support the Saudi monarchy to check Iran while simultaneously “helping” that same monarchy dissolve itself in the name of Western liberalism? It’s sounds like a self-evidently absurd position and yet, it’s being held up as something Obama has failed to do…

The US uncomfortable reality in Syria

By Tony Badran, September 29, 2011

The Obama administration is slowly coming to grips with the uncomfortable reality that its preferred scenario of a peaceful transition in Syria is looking less likely. As much as it had hoped to avoid it, the administration finds itself having to develop contingency plans as signs of armed resistance to Bashar al-Assad’s regime are becoming increasingly visible.

Commenting on this development in the Syrian uprising, State Department spokesman Mark Toner remarked on Monday that “the longer the regime continues to repress, kill and jail these peaceful activists, the more likely that this peaceful movement’s going to become violent.” It’s a matter of self-defense, Toner explained; “It’s not surprising.”

To read more: http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=316485#ixzz1ZNavTJCf

The Turco-American duet in the Middle East

Today Zaman —

The rise of Turkey as a key strategic country in American foreign policy traces back to the 1947 Truman Doctrine, when the US decided to help Turkey, and this will be the counterbalancing of the Soviet threat.

Since then, the US has kept Turkey as its important ally, so much so that “acting through Turkey” came to be the mental habit of American diplomacy in the Middle East. In its first 50 years, the US was unquestionably the patron in this bilateral arrangement. Turkey was never colonized, but as for its foreign policy, it was certainly “colonized” by the US.

However, Turkey has gradually increased its leverage in the relationship, and a symbiotic model of it emerged after the late ’90s, the US having softened its unilateral “boss” presumption. Turkey’s progress in economic growth and democratization increased its autonomy vis-à-vis the US. Since then, the global economic crisis and developments in the Middle East have made it clear that the US can no longer occupy its former hegemonic position in the region. Accordingly, it has decided on a carefully planned retreat. But, when a hegemonic state retreats, it must leave the territory it vacates to a friendly, at least middle-sized, power, lest rival states move in. Turkey, apparently, is the American choice for the job of substitute power.

This is a wise choice by the US. With US approval, Turkey is confidently declaring itself the new rule maker in the Middle East. But this is consistent with this country’s critical role in the post-Cold War era, and with its participation in all (Kosovo, Afghanistan and Libya) NATO-led wars. (I should note that NATO is now the most important instrument of American global hegemony, most importantly, in the Middle East and Europe.) Turkey’s role was again a key one in NATO’s inclusion of Slovenia, Hungary and Poland. The latest additions to NATO, these states became ipso facto the new clients of the US defense industry. Turkey has also done its best in the war on terror. To many people’s surprise, al-Qaeda carried off one of its bloodiest attacks in İstanbul. And although this has not been confirmed officially, it is known that the CIA’s extraordinary rendition program used Turkey as a base during its transporting of “terrorism” suspects. All these facts underline a certain point: Despite attempts to argue the contrary, Turkey has backed the US in all major issues in the post-Cold War era.

Simply, the Turco-American relationship is gaining a new face, and this is a makeover affected by the new configurations of the Middle East. Indeed, this made-over face will generate some serious outcomes: The US will tolerate Turkey’s stand against Israel. Israel should be able to see that Turkey’s worth to the US has changed. Turkey will be less interested in the EU. Heralding this likelihood, Turkey has recently declared that it will not recognize Cyprus as the holder of the rotating EU presidency. This is indeed a strange announcement by any standard of mainstream diplomacy. A candidate country is openly dictating the rules of the game! This suggests that Turkey may even be seeking to freeze its relations with the EU.

The burning question has to be this: What is the estimated lifespan of this new, symbiotic Turkey-US relationship? At the core, Turkey’s dependence on the US originates from three facts: Turkey is about to lose its pro-European vigor. The EU has no clear Turkey agenda, and, if it remains lax on this front, Turkey has only the US option as a guarantor of its global interests. Also, lacking its own military technology, Turkey is dependent on that of the US. And thirdly, the backbone of the Turkish economy is made of small and medium-sized companies. Turkish exports are not high-tech products, but second and third sub-level products, such as machinery and household goods. Such an economic structure makes the US a compulsory option for Turkey, for two reasons: It is only the US that can offer political cooperation, despite the poor economic outlook of the bilateral relations; and, given its economic structure, Turkey cannot realize complex relations with other developed states, like Japan, to increase its global leverage. Therefore, the lifespan of the Turco-American duet will be decided mostly by how these three facts evolve. So long as they exert themselves on Turkey in their present forms, we in the region shall be listening to the music of the Turco-American duet.

http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist-257906-the-turco-american-duet-in-the-middle-east.html  —

 

The GOP’s new love for Amb. to Syria Robert Ford

Posted By Josh Rogin September 23, 2011 –U.S. Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford’s once unlikely bid for Senate confirmation gained traction this week, as multiple GOP senators and a host of conservative foreign policy leaders changed their tune toward his nomination.

Placed in his post via a recess appointment last year, Ford would have to return to Washington at the end of December if the Senate does not vote to confirm him. Over the summer, Ford has actively engaged with Syrian opposition groups and has put himself at personal risk by attending meetings of opposition leaders and funerals of Syrian activists. These efforts have convinced a large portion of the GOP, which stymied his confirmation last year, that his presence in Damascus is a useful way of confronting the regime of President Bashar al-Assad and not a concession to the brutal dictator.

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) was the first critic of Ford’s presence in Syria to reverse himself and come out in support of Ford’s confirmation. Now, several GOP senators who have criticized Obama’s Syria policy are following suit.

“Robert Ford has shown personal bravery and increasing effectiveness for advancing human rights in Syria and I am in support of his nomination,” Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) told The Cable.

Congressional Quarterly reported on Thursday that Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK), who voted no on Ford during committee consideration in July, is now a supporter. “He’s demonstrated very clearly that he can handle the tough job he’s doing in Syria,” Inhofe said.

Also, a group of conservative pundits, under the banner of the Foreign Policy Initiative (FPI), released a statement supporting Ford’s confirmation. FPI is led by Bill Kristol, Bob Kagan, and Jamie Fly.

“Whatever reason people had for wanting to withdraw our ambassador from Damascus before — and they were legitimate — circumstances have changed,” Kagan told The Cable. “Ford is, very bravely, acting as a kind of U.S. representative to the opposition in Syria and is making clear to the Syrian people that the US stands with them and against Assad.”

“It’s pretty clear the Republican tide is now turning in Ford’s favor,” a senior Senate aide close to the issue told The Cable. “The reason, ironically, isn’t because Republicans have been persuaded by the administration to support a policy of engagement. It’s because the administration has been persuaded, by the facts on the ground, to abandon engagement… Everyone realizes Ford is now in Syria not as a bridge to Assad, but as a bridge to what comes after Assad.”

The State Department senses that the tide is turning on the Ford nomination as well, and is pushing Ford out to the media this week. He conducted on-the-record interviews with The Daily Caller¸ the Huffington Post¸ and with your humble Cable guy.

In a phone call with The Cable, Ford laid out the reasons he believes that he should be allowed to stay in Damascus.

“When an ambassador makes a statement in a country that’s critical of that country’s government, when that government visits an opposition or a site where a protest is taking place, the statement is much more powerful — and the impact and the attention it gets is much more powerful if it’s an ambassador rather than a low-level diplomat,” Ford said.

Ford said he still meets with Syrian Foreign Ministry officials, as has as recently as last week, but only about routine diplomatic business and not about the regime or overall U.S. policy. “There really is not a lot that we need to say to the Syrian government,” Ford said. “We don’t need to discuss their reform initiative because we don’t take it seriously.”

Ford said he is definitely not trying to get himself kicked out of Damascus, as some in Washington believe. He is also meeting frequently with Syrians who are “on the fence,” and could be turned against the Assad regime, such as business leaders, government employees, Christians, and the Allawite community, which has until recently been loyal to Assad.

Amid discord between various opposition groups inside and outside Syria, Ford’s message to the Syrian opposition is that it should unite and put together a plan for transitioning to a new government. “Otherwise it’s just going to be very bloody and bad later,” he said. He is also urging them to keep the protests peaceful in order to maintain international sympathy.

There has been some discussion in Washington about why Ford doesn’t announce his activities in Syria or post about them on his Facebook page, which he has used to criticize the Assad regime. Ford said his activities are well-covered in Syria and around the region by the Arab language press.

“I’m thinking much more about my audience here in Syria; I’m not so worried about the Washington repercussions,” he said.

What’s clear is that Ford has had some close calls. In addition to being assaulted by a pro-regime thug, the funeral he attended of slain activist Giyath Matar was attacked by regime forces just after he left. In fact, he said, he was only a block away in his car when the attack occurred.

At first, the crowd at the funeral was chanting, “God, Syria, freedom, and that’s all,” Ford remembered. He and the other seven ambassadors at the funeral left, however, when the crowd started shouting, “The people want to bring the downfall of the regime.”

“I don’t want to be an American ambassador encouraging a crowd to bring down the regime. That would be incitement, that’s the red line,” Ford said.

It seems that Ford’s actions are getting under the skin of the Syrian regime. Ford said that after trashing Matar’s funeral, Syrian forces spray painted on the side of Matar’s house, “The Matar family is an agent of the American ambassador.”

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/23/the_gop_s_new_love_for_amb_to_syria_robert_ford

Interview with US ambassador Ford in Syria

TVNZ  September 23, 2011 Source: Reuters–

President Bashar al-Assad is losing support among key constituents and risks plunging Syria into sectarian strife by intensifying a crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators, the US ambassador to Damascus says.

Time is against Assad, but the Syrian opposition still needed to agree on the specifics of a transition and the system that could replace Assad if he is ousted, Ambassador Robert Ford said in a telephone interview from Damascus.

“The government violence is actually creating retaliation and creating even more violence in our analysis, and it is also increasing the risk of sectarian conflict,” he said.

Although Ford did not mention either by name, tensions have emerged in Syria between its mostly Sunni population and Assad’s Alawite sect, which dominates the army and the security apparatus.

The United States, seeking to convince Assad to scale back an alliance with Iran and backing for militant groups, moved to improve relations with Assad when President Barack Obama took office, sending Ford to Damascus in January to fill a diplomatic vacuum since Washington pulled out its ambassador in 2005.

But ties deteriorated after the uprising broke out and Assad ignored international calls to respond to protester demands that he dismantle the police state and end five decades of autocratic rule.

Washington, which has weighed its strategic interests in the region against a public commitment to support democracy, has responded in different ways to the “Arab Spring” uprisings.

It shows no appetite to repeat the kind of military intervention that was crucial in the ouster of Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi. Assad’s opponents say they, too, do not want foreign military intervention but would welcome “international protection” to prevent the killing of civilians.

Assad has promised reform and has changed some laws, but the opposition said they made no difference, with killings, torture, mass arrests and military raids intensifying in recent weeks.
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The 46-year-old president repeatedly has said that outside powers were trying to divide Syria under the guise of wanting democracy because of Damascus’s backing for Arab resistance forces. He said the authorities were justified in using force against what they described as a terrorist threat.

Ford said most of the violence “is coming from the government and its security forces.

“That can either be shooting at peaceful protests or funeral processions or when government forces go into homes. We have had recently a number of deaths in custody, or extra-judicial killings,” he said.

The veteran diplomat has infuriated Syria’s rulers by cultivating links with the grassroots protest movement. It has been expanding since the uprising demanding an end to 41 years of Assad family rule erupted in March, when a group of activists, mostly women, demonstrated in the main Marjeh Square in Damascus to demand the release of political prisoners. Security police arrested and beat dozens of them.

Ford was cheered by protesters when he went in July to the city of Hama, which was later stormed by tanks. He also visited a town that has witnessed regular protests in the southern province of Deraa, ignoring a new ban on Western diplomats traveling outside Damascus and its outskirts.

Along with a group of mostly Western ambassadors, Ford paid condolences this month to the family of Ghayath Matar, a 25-year-old protest leader who used to distribute flowers to give to soldiers but was arrested and died of apparent torture.

“We wanted to show Syrians what the international community from Japan to Europe to North America thinks of the example that Ghayath Matar set about peaceful protest,” Ford said.

Citing the resilience of more than six months of what he described as overwhelmingly peaceful demonstrations, Ford said the street activists could receive a boost from a more effective political opposition.

Dissent among core

“The other part of the protest movement is to have a genuine frame for a democratic transition. I think that this is something which different elements of the Syrian opposition are trying to organise.

“It probably has two elements. One element is to have some agreed principles about how a reformed Syrian state would look and how it would operate, and another element would be how would a Syrian transition be arranged,” he said.

The Obama administration toughened its position in August, saying Assad should step down and imposing sanctions on the petroleum industry, which is linked to the ruling elite.

Ford said there was economic malaise in Syria, signs of dissent within Assad’s Alawite sect and more defections from the army since mid-September, but the military is “still very powerful and very cohesive”.

“I don’t think that the Syrian government today, Sept. 22, is close to collapse. I think time is against the regime because the economy is going into a more difficult situation, the protest movement is continuing and little by little groups that used to support the government are beginning to change.”

Ford cited a statement issued in the restive city of Homs last month by three notable members of the Alawite community which said the Alawites’ future is not tied to the Assads remaining in power.

“We did not see developments like that in April or May. I think the longer this continues the more difficult it becomes for the different communities, the different elements of Syrian society that used to support Assad, to continue to support him.”

He said Assad could still rely on the military to try and crush the protest movement but the killing of peaceful protesters was losing him support within the ranks.

“The Syrian army is still very powerful and it is still very strong,” Ford said. “Its cohesion is not at risk today but there are more reports since mid-September of desertions than we heard in April and May or June. And this is why I am saying time is not on the side of the government.”

Mahmoud Abbas finds a way to scare Israel

Maclean.ca by Jody White, September 21, 2011–
After decades of futility, the Palestinian cause may finally have something resembling a victory in its sights
Israeli politician Abba Eban said in 2002 that the Arabs never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. For the past nine years of the interminable Israeli/Palestinian peace process, events have largely played out in support of this view. But a growing chorus of support at the United Nations for the recognition of a Palestinian state is evidence that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has learned from the failures of his predecessors and is now creating opportunities of his own, to the dismay of Israel and the United States.

In the 47 years the Palestine Liberation Organization has existed, it has used a combination of negotiations, armed resistance and terrorism to work towards its goals of self-determination and the right of return for Palestinian refugees. The campaign’s longevity attests to its lack of success.

President Abbas is now pursuing a new strategy. Instead of laying his demands at the door of Israel and the United States, he is making a two-pronged approach to the United Nations in order to shame a superpower and cast light on the groundswell of support for his cause amidst the developing world.

Abbas has announced his intention to submit an application for statehood on Friday to the United Nations Security Council based on 1967 borders—the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip. As official UN recognition would throw negotiations with Israel into disarray, the U.S. has promised to veto the application.

In the event of a veto, Abbas will turn to the UN General Assembly with an application for non-member observer status, (on par diplomatically with the Vatican), which does not require the blessing of the Security Council. The General Assembly is made up mostly of developing nations which sympathize with the Palestinians’ plight and is almost guaranteed to approve the request, giving Palestine access to a variety of UN agencies and committees along with entry to the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court.

It is a bold move, and not without its risks for all parties. For Abbas, the possibility of coming home to an energized and expectant population with little or nothing to show for his efforts could undermine his leadership and stoke instability and violence. Even his own prime minister–who has been working diligently to build the fundamental institutions of a future Palestinian state—disagrees with the UN bid on the grounds that the victory would be purely symbolic.

For Israel, the vote couldn’t come at a worse time. The fallout from last year’s bloody confrontation over Israel’s naval blockade of Gaza (which killed nine Turks) has turned Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan into an Arab nationalist firebrand who is now championing the Palestinian cause. More recently, the Arab Spring washing over the Middle East claimed Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak—formerly Israel’s most dependable regional ally—and threatens the stability of Syria, bringing the spectre of violence closer to two of the Jewish state’s borders. Indeed, the situation in Egypt has deteriorated to the point where Israel’s ambassador had to be evacuated from his Cairo office last week after it was set upon by a sledgehammer-wielding mob.

However, it is the Obama administration that is in the most difficult position. After setting high hopes with his 2009 Cairo address to the Muslim world, Obama has watched helplessly as the peace process ground to a halt. Israel has continued to build settlements in the West Bank, militants from Gaza have gone on a murderous rampage in southern Israel and a defiant Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stormed into Washington, D.C. and brusquely dismissed Obama’s attempt to re-start moribund peace talks.

Now, with populist uprisings spreading across the region, Obama has the unenviable task of quashing the aspirations of a people he has pledged to assist, knowing full well that the result will be diminished U.S. influence in the region and an opportunity for regional powers to assert their will. In addition, the U.S. Congress is threatening to cut off aid to the Palestinians as punishment for their UN gambit, leaving the door open for other donors seeking power and prestige to step in.

The most likely state to do so is Saudi Arabia, says Janice Stein, Director of the Munk School of Global Affairs in Toronto. “They’ve come out very strongly in favour of a bid at the UN. There is intense Saudi displeasure with the Obama administration because Obama sacrificed [former Egyptian President] Mubarak. And they consider that disloyal and unbecoming. So the Saudis have few reasons to hold back when it comes to opposing the U.S.”

Aside from pushing the word “Palestine” into diplomatic and media vernacular, Abbas’s efforts in the run-up to Friday’s vote are ultimately an effort to force a weak American government to leverage the Israelis, adds Stein.

“Again and again in his language, President Abbas has said ‘we do not seek a confrontation with Israel, we do not seek a confrontation with the U.S.’ This signals that he’s looking for meaningful negotiations and he expects the U.S. to exert an inordinate amount of pressure to make this happen in a short time.”

As of Tuesday, the pressure appears to working. Prime Minister Netanyahu has called for a fresh round of negotiations, and a group comprised of the European Union, the UN, the U.S. and Russia (known as the Quartet) is reportedly working on a framework for talks which would convince President Abbas to abandon his UN bid and return to the negotiating table.

“We don’t really know the details of the negotiations right now, but in the discussion of what the borders of an independent Palestinian state would be, apparently Prime Minister Netanyahu has agreed to language like the 1967 borders with some modifications,” says Stein. “What president Abbas wants is modifications that are equal in size and scope.”

After 47 years of blood, bombings and blockades failed to move the needle any closer to a viable two-state solution, the Palestinians seem to have finally discovered a peaceful way to seize the initiative. And as the Arab Spring continues to re-write the geopolitical landscape of the Eastern Mediterranean, it may be an increasingly isolated Israel that is now in danger of missing an opportunity.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/09/21/mahmoud-abbas-finds-a-way-to-scare-israel/

Iran vs. NATO: The Twilight War in Syria

By Austin Bay,  RealClearPolitics-

Syria’s Arab Spring civil war began as another round in a long struggle between the 10 percent and the 90 percent — the 10 percent loyal to the Alawite dictatorship of the Assad clan versus everyone else.

The civil war has now expanded into a twilight regional war between Iran and NATO, with Turkey as NATO’s frontline actor.

At one level, Iran and NATO share a common concern: Syrian disintegration. Where they differ — greatly — is on who or what prevents disintegration.

Syria is a fragile mosaic of religious and ethnic groups, to include Arabs, Kurds, Druze and numerous Christian sects. Think fractious Lebanon, only bigger, and handcuffed by a brittle police state. Sunni Muslim rebels, including members of the Muslim Brotherhood, present the biggest challenge to the nominally Shia Muslim Alawites (the sect is theologically heterogeneous). In 1982, Syrian forces under Hafez al-Assad (father of Bashir al-Assad, the current dictator) massacred at least 10,000 Sunni rebels in the city of Hama. In that pre-Internet and cell phone era, the regime hid the killing fields.

Bashir al-Assad’s forces have been more restrained. 2011’s digital communications provide real-time pictures of murder. NATO’s Libyan intervention reminds Assad that he could also face overt international action if he threatens mass reprisals. So his regime, supported by Iranian intelligence and special forces, has fought a slow war of repression, a cruel endurance contest with its own people, killing some 2,700 civilians since the rebellion erupted in February.

The regime, however, is faltering. The mosaic contains too many enemies. Iran has noticed. Earlier this month, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told Assad to end his violent crackdown.

Iran wants to buy time, hoping Assad and his killers will endure. This would be an optimal outcome for Iran’s Islamic revolutionaries. Assad’s Syria provides Iran with a forward base in its proxy war against Israel, supporting Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations.

The Assad dictatorship, however, is no longer acceptable to NATO. U.S. President Barack Obama made that clear last month when he said, “For the sake of the Syrian people, the time has come for President (Bashir) Assad to step aside.”

Iran could live with an Assad replacement who would continue to support its proxies. Exiling Assad might make room for an alternative Alawite dictator, a man with a different face, but there is no guaranty that a new Alawite face will halt the rebellion. The Libyan rebels ouster of dictator Muammar Gadhafi has encouraged Syrians. For that matter, it has encouraged Iranian dissidents — which is another reason Tehran’s dictators want the Assad regime to prevail.

NATO would like to deny Iran its Syrian base but also prevent disintegration while avoiding direct military intervention. It would also like to avoid a peacekeeping mission and nation-building operation, though that may not be possible.

Here’s the disintegration nightmare: armed sectarian mini-states, a Kurdish triangle and fragment enclaves of fear and suffering run by neighborhood warlords, each a possible Terror-Stan open to extremist subversion.

Fortunately, there are Syrian rebel leaders who know that the big losers in this hell are the Syrian people. Last week, after months of discussion, Syrian rebel leaders meeting in Turkey formed a national council. It is a diverse group, but an attempt to unify Syrian opposition to the Assad regime. Council representatives hope their organization can funnel international support to rebels inside Syria, countering Iranian support for Assad.

According to The New York Times, the council favors “a multiethnic and pluralist Syria, run without any political emphasis on religion. ” That’s NATO’s optimal outcome. Can it be achieved? Doing so requires regime change in Damascus, continually thwarting Iran and political buy-in by a majority of Syria’s citizens. At some point it will also require deploying an international security force inside Syria, to counter vengeful Iranian subversion.

Copyright 2011, Creators Syndicate Inc.