Category Archives: Middle East Geopolitics

Role model Turkey, secular and democratic?

Thursday, October 6, 2011
YUSUF KANLI

Turkey is a democratic country. Over the past almost 90 years we could not manage to define what we understand from “secularism,” but Turkey is a country with an overwhelming Muslim population and “secular” and “democratic” governance. Turkey is the only island of “secular democracy” in the Muslim world.

With “secularism” the Turkish state, at least so far, understands controlling the practice of Islam through a state agency. That Religious Affairs Directorate or “Diyanet,” has a budget and organization bigger than six combined ministries. After all the great openings of the current Islamist government Diyanet “improved a lot,” it is reported that it will soon be elevated considerably in the state protocol as well, and has become the fundamental tool in persuading the people of this land to convert to Sunni-Hanefi, a certain sect of Sunni Islam. While Sunni-Hanefi believers are given a “more equal” status than the rest of Muslim folk, particularly of the Alevis, the minute non-Muslim sections of the society expect “equal treatment” from the state, believing that “secularism requires the state to remain at equal distance from all religions.”

For the “democracy” assumption, there are of course some who still believe in the “rule by people for the people” principle. However, they are in minority. The current prime minister, for example, believed for some time, nowadays he claimed to have changed that perception, that democracy is a wagon to be traveled on and left behind on reaching the final destination [Islamic governance]. Some other politicians considered it a tool to come to power, fill the coffers of her/his political clan at all costs to the state and resign to Bosporus mansions. Some believed it was not just a word but a web of norms, values and of course rights. In the 1970s and 1980s they were imprisoned and they long have abandoned those goals and have become rich businesspeople. There are some idealists, or lunatics perhaps, who still hope that this country will eventually become a democracy.

Democracy, of course, cannot be achieved in the absence of either the principle of equality or the supremacy of law. It appears as a farce indeed to talk about a democratic country that might be a model for its neighborhood if in that there are “more equals” than others or where a prime minister can boast of having “my justice” or “my judges, my prosecutors” like “my policemen, my teachers, my civil servants” or whatsoever and a prison was converted into a gigantic concentration camp to isolate the “not so welcome critics,” potential adversaries, patriots, Kemalists and of course the retired soldiers (those active officers arrested are at a military prison) in small cells.

Turkey is a sovereign country. At least, many people, including the writer of this article, assume it as such. Yet, this sovereign country is now at a jaw-jaw stage, thank God not at a war-war affair, with a small country of the region over its arrogance, spoiled behavior and indeed barbarism over members of another nation that it has been occupying its land. The tall, bold and bald ever-angry prime minister aspiring to be an absolute ruler in this model “democracy” for the Muslim nations, has been very angry with that small neighbor. He has been rightly demanding it apologize and agree to pay compensation for an act of piracy and murder of nine Turkish citizens in international waters on the Mediterranean. Yet, when the Americans wanted to deploy a radar system – that the angry tall man originally opposed – to fend of possible Iranian missiles aimed at that small arrogant state, this country has become the host of the system protecting that arrogant neighbor. Well, this might be “real politik” but it stinks.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=role-model-turkey-2011-10-06

Syria: US follows a failed path

5 October 2011

By Ramzy Baroud

United States ambassador to Syria Robert Ford is quite a feisty diplomat. He shows up unannounced and uninvited at various hot spots in the country, greeted with varying degrees of enthusiasm and, oftentimes, anger.

When he made a highly touted appearance in the city of Hama in July, residents reportedly greeted him with flowers. However, his appearance at the home of an opposition figure in Damascus on September 29 earned him a salvo of tomatoes and rocks from angry protesters.

Naturally – and as confirmed by various WikiLeaks cables – American diplomats don’t behave independently from the main organ of US foreign policy in Washington, the State Department. It is also safe to assume that Ford’s alleged solidarity visits

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MJ05Ak01.html

Syria: Russia’s credibility at stake

Bashar al Assad is now squeezed more than ever to fulfill his promises. There is no escape as the Russian won’t accept a slap on their face if Bashar fails to implement the reforms. They’ll dump him.
The strategy of the Russians is to bring the independant opposition groups on the ground (not the French-MB-Turkish one) to act more decisively and find a middle way to save the country from civil war and chaos.
Bashar’s excuses has been the lack of social peace to implement the reforms, while the opposition’s reluctance is because of the use of force to get that social peace.
As the opposition on the ground lacks any charismatic and courageous leadership, the whole thing has been dragging its feet and has allowed foreign supported expats to carry the flag of the opposition while sitting on their computers or touring Turkey and the “lobbies”

The Russian hope to boost the local opposition to share the burden of imposing a social peace as well as pushing Bashar to implement the reforms in conjunction with the opposition.
It is a challenge that will be opposed and fought by the hawk western countries who prefer the full destruction of the country and a rebuild under their ‘knowledgable supervision’ to regain the upper hand on the ‘arab spring’ and better control its foreign policy, especially on Iran, Iraq and Israel.
The Russians have invested and risked a lot in that veto. They must deliver, their honor is at stake.
http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/?p=12401&cp=2#comment-276808

The Syria National Council: Opposition or Resistance ?

JC–  3th October  2011—

Anti-regime activists consider that the president Bashar al Assad, his army and his government occupy Syria illegally or with no legitimacy.

Therefore they see themselves not as a democratic “opposition” but as a “Resistance” movement in exile, like the French Resistance operating from England to liberate France from the German.

Their strategy is to instigate revolts through peaceful local demonstrations or if this fails through a cold war using violence or a real war if they are able to get countries to help them, like what happened in Libya.

There is nothing democratic about their approach and they act from the unproven assumption that all the Syrian people are in agreement with their approach. They get active support for some western countries who have their own agenda in mind.

The “illegality” of the present government has been expressed unilaterally by a couple of Western countries who, for years, have already been sanctioning the Syrian government for its active support of the legitimate resistance of the Palestinians to the Western-supported Israeli occupation. This “deligitimization” is contrary to the chart of the UN and has been rejected by the Arab League, and most countries in the world.
By using videos of violence and demonstrations, the western media has played an important role in trying to convince the international community that the majority of Syrian are violently oppressed and that they all consider the current government as illegitimate.

Yet, unless there is a valid and reliable confirmation that the Syrian people are in majority in support of this so called “resistance’, all its acts are considered illegal and should be condemned as terrorist acts against a state and a government that is recognized and represented at the UN and all international institutions. Embassies of the countries that consider the present government as illegitimate are still in the capital.

I hope it clarifies (?) the situation of the crisis in Syria

Dystocia of gov’t creates perennial problems in Libya

2011-10-03 by Xinhua writers Zheng Kaijun, Zhu Xiaolong

TRIPOLI, Oct. 3,2011 (Xinhua) — As Libya’s new rulers have given themselves the leeway on setting up an interim government which should have been due according to earlier promises, the war-torn country may risk itself falling into a place of lasting chaos.

POLITICAL DIFFERENCES

Mahmoud Jibril, head of the ruling National Transitional Council (NTC) executive board, confirmed late last week that the formation of a transitional government would be postponed till the entire Libya is without redoubts of fallen leader Muammar Gaddafi, while the current executive office was to remain in operation as the caretaker administration despite some minor changes.

Earlier in September, the NTC has set time bars three times for the birth of a new government. But what awaited Libyans were its repeated failures to keep its words, which reflected the fierce power struggle as well as the abortion of mutual trust among the future rulers of Libya.

NTC Chairman Mustafa Abdul Jalil had admitted on an earlier occasion that each tribe and town was eager to have a share in the new government, as the country had been extremely thirsty of power after over four decades of iron-handed rule.

For instance, the position of prime minister is a center of debate. Jibril, a hot option for the post, has been facing allegations on his incompetency as a government head due to the continuity of chaos in post-battle towns.

The current NTC executive chief was therefore compelled to say that he was not the reason for the delayed government, while he also noted surprisingly that he would not be “related to the transitional government,” although he failed to elaborate.

In the meantime, the dragging on of battles in a couple of Gaddafi’s remaining strongholds has been a distraction for the green-hand NTC leadership.

“The new rulers look unable to lay the foundation for reconstruction, which is a must for orderly management in the future,” Abdelfattah Elsonoty, an Egyptian political analyst on Arab issues, told Xinhua.

“Compared with the military conflicts, the political war might go on for even longer time,” Elsonoty said.

ECONOMIC TROUBLES

With no political stability, the recovery of Libya’s mauled economy will also be in jeopardy.

The rebuilding of post-war economy is a massive task which could take years, said Khalifa Shakreen, director of the International Cooperation Office in Tripoli-based Al-Fatah University. “Economic reconstruction needs a solid government, this is the insuperable premise,” he said.

“After the interim government, the Libyan people will elect their real government,” Shakreen said, adding that therefore the interim office would only be kind of filling the vacancy, while it could be hard for the “temporary” officials to focus on the details of economic and social aspects.

At a press conference last week, Jibril has vowed to raise the salaries for the Libyans and provide subsidies for the families of the war victims and those who were still fighting at the front lines. But how and when these money can be fulfilled remain a big question mark.

Moreover, a key trouble is the many Libyans who are left unemployed due to the civil war, which has forced foreign investors to leave. Although Libya’s oil attraction is expected to bring back foreign cashes soon, only time can tell whether the money will be in the pocket of the people or of the fledgling rulers.

SOCIAL TASKS

Besides the big words of political and economy, more are concerned with the livelihood of the ordinary.

“The most pressing task is to feed the people,” said local political analyst Saleh Sharif. “If you are still starved, you will not be interested in freedom or democracy.”

Sherif’s observation was shared by many Libyan citizens like Mohamed Shtewi. According to the computer engineer before the turmoil, it is too early to grade the current ruling authorities, as many basic living problems are yet to be solved in a proper way.

Among the issues is the treatment of the injured. The lack of fund and interior coordination has put many who were wounded in the prolonged fighting on the fringe of live.

Rallies were held in Tripoli since early September to demand the authorities’ attention to the difficulties thousands of anti- Gaddafi war “heroes” now face. One of the demonstrators, Abdurrzag Shish, was severely wounded in his left leg in April. He told Xinhua that he himself paid for medical treatment in Tunisia, as Libya’s medical condition was outdated.

Even more perilous is the proliferation of weapons across the country. Analysts warn that the pulling back of guns could be a long-term task. If the process is delayed, “tranquility” will only be literal.

Obama’s Hollow Words on Palestine

September 26, 2011

President Barack Obama struggled to explain his planned veto of UN recognition of a Palestinian state just a year after he welcomed the idea. His speech was a painful example of a leader knowing what is right and calculating that he can’t do what is right, notes Lawrence Davidson.

By Lawrence Davidson

On Sept. 21, President Barack Obama delivered his latest message to the United Nations: “I would like to talk to you about a subject that is at the heart of the United Nations – the pursuit of peace in an imperfect world.”

Actually, one thing that makes the world imperfect is the lopsided power distribution at the UN. This allows the permanent members of the Security Council (particularly the U.S.) to decide when peace does or does not get pursued.

But Obama did not call attention to this problem. Instead he pointed to Libya and the alleged achievement of freedom, security and peace in that North African land. Actually, what Libya amounted to, at least in part, was the destruction of a nation with a standard of living approaching that of Spain.

This destruction happened not because it was ruled by “the world’s longest serving dictator,” but because that particular dictator had a 40-year record of being an incredible pain in the rear end of the Western ruling elites.

Be that as it may, Obama was stuck with the conundrum that the people of Libya (and Tunisia and Egypt and maybe Yemen and Syria but, of course, not Bahrain) deserve self-determination and peace, while the Palestinians are apparently still out in the cold.

Obama explained that “I believe … that the Palestine people deserve a state of their own.” However, they only can have it if they follow a course which, over the last 20 years, has proved utterly bankrupt.

Indeed, Obama saved his most emphatic language for the moment when he insisted that bankruptcy is the only way to national success for the Palestinians: “Ultimately it is the Israelis and the Palestinians – not us – who must reach agreement … that is and will be the path to a Palestinian state.”

Very odd. The President tells us that Washington won’t dictate national self-determination, but it damn well can dictate the route the Palestinians must take to get it. Even if that route has proven worthless and will, most likely, lead them to their ultimate destruction.

Two Critics

Robert Fisk, the famous reporter for the British newspaper The Independent, wrote a scathing report on President Obama’s speech. Here is part of what Fisk said:

“After praising the Arab Spring … the man [Obama] dared to give the Palestinians 10 minutes of his time, slapping them in the face for daring to demand statehood from the UN. Obama even – and this is the funniest part his preposterous address to the UN — suggested that the Palestinians and the Israelis were two equal ‘parties’ to the conflict.”

Fisk is angry and frustrated and one can only empathize with those feelings. But his piece leaves a lot unexplained. So let us look at Uri Avnery, founder and leader of Israel’s Gush Shalom peace movement, who commented on the speech this way:

“A wonderful speech. A beautiful speech. The language expressive and elegant. The arguments clear and convincing. The delivery flawless. A work of art. The art of hypocrisy. Almost every statement in the passage concerning the Israeli-Palestinian issue was a lie.

“A blatant lie: the speaker knew it and so did the audience. … Being a moral person, he [Obama] must have felt the urge to vomit. Being a pragmatic person, he knew that he had to do it if he wanted to be re-elected.”

Now that is more to the point. Avnery tells us why Obama was lying. Because in a land of the deceived, only really good liars get … what? Get elected and then re-elected?

Well, that is probably true. However, in this particular case things are a bit more complicated. This might sound a bit shocking but, taken literally, Avnery is inaccurate. You can be critical of Israel and even sympathetic to the Palestinians and still, at least potentially, get elected to office in the United States.

Consider a recent poll by the Pew Research Center. It indicates that 42 percent of Americans are in favor of U.S. recognition of Palestinian statehood as against 26 percent opposed. Nearly one-third, 32 percent, had no opinion.

That means an energetic and savvy politician running for national office, who is also publicly in favor of Palestinian statehood, would have a pool of 74 percent of American voters to work on.

The numbers are even more impressive when considering only Democratic voters. There 54 percent are in favor of Palestinian statehood and only 14 percent opposed. These are telling numbers for a politician with pro-Palestinian sympathies– if the voters are really the end game here.

Neglected Voters

Unfortunately, they are not. Voters are only important at the actual time of election. At all other times the politicians’ constituencies are special-interest groups. It is the special interests that supply the resources the politicians actually use to manipulate the voters at election time.

The political parties know this very well. They know that what political suicide actually consists of is putting forth a candidate that displeases the special interests. In the case of the Israeli-Palestinian issue, 95 percent of the time both Democrat and Republican parties won’t even nominate a candidate who expresses opinions favorable to the Palestinians.

Therefore, such candidates hardly ever reach the voters. So, it is not quite as Avnery puts it, that Obama speaks lies so as to be re-elected. More accurately, he speaks lies so he can be re-nominated.

There is no politician in America capable of getting a presidential nomination who could or would have made a speech more sympathetic to the Palestinians than the one given by Barack Obama.

The conclusion one can draw is that on the issue of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, public opinion presently has no leverage.

And, for it ever to actually have leverage, it must reach a point where it overwhelms the standard factors of special-interest influence: giving campaign funding to a candidate or choosing to give it to his or her opponent; generating lots of TV air time in favor of the candidate or creating negative attack ads against him or her; and the overall control of the information on the subject of interest to the special interest that goes to the candidates and their staff.

In other words, unless you can get the public riled up on this subject to the point where millions see it as a voting issue, politicians and their party leaders won’t respond to polls such as that recently put out by Pew. Such information simply does not indicate a level of public focus that will sway the party choices of candidates at the nomination level.

To make the Israeli-Palestinian conflict a voting issue within the American political milieu is a tough goal, but it is not an impossible one. A growing number of local and national organizations are already engaged in this effort seeking to change public attitudes to the point that American voters will react to Israeli behavior as they once reacted to apartheid South Africa’s policies.

To name just three, there are the U.S. Campaign Against the Occupation, the Council on the National Interest, and Jewish Voices for Peace. Many others are active as well. In Europe, the effort to build public opinion to the point that it has voting leverage is also going on apace.

About ten years ago, I had a heated conversation with the Charge d’affaires of the U.S. Embassy in Israel. He told me that if I believed that the U.S. Congress could be freed from the influence of the Zionist lobby I was crazy.

“It will never happen” he told me. I disagreed with that sentiment then, and still do today.

The Pew Poll numbers show that there is fertile ground for an eventual sea change in popular opinion. And, with a lot of hard grassroots work, that change will have a powerful political impact. One must never say never.

Lawrence Davidson is a history professor at West Chester University in Pennsylvania. He is the author of Foreign Policy Inc.: Privatizing America’s National Interest; America’s Palestine: Popular and Offical Perceptions from Balfour to Israeli Statehood; and Islamic Fundamentalism

Who is the Syrian Opposition?

Dp-News September 30, 2011 —

SYRIA- Since mid-March, Syria has been shaken by an unprecedented pro-democracy protest movement that the Assad regime has sought to crush using deadly force. More than 2,700 people have been killed in the unrest, according to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights in Geneva.

On the political front, Anti-regime activists inside Syria oppose the Syrian National Council, an opposition body formed in Turkey last month, because it favours foreign intervention, prominent activist Michel Kilo said on Thursday.

A Prominent dissident Michel Kilo said anti-regime forces inside Syria oppose the Syrian National Council, an opposition body formed in Turkey last month, because it favours foreign intervention.

“The opposition within the national council are in favour of foreign intervention to resolve the crisis in Syria, while those at home are not,” Kilo claimed in remarks to AFP at his home in Damascus.

“If the idea of foreign intervention is accepted, we will head towards a pro-American Syria and not towards a free and sovereign state,” he said.

“A request for foreign intervention would aggravate the problem because Syria would descend into armed violence and confessionalism, while we at home are opposed to that.”

And diplomats in Damascus told AFP that Ankara asked Damascus this summer to offer the banned Muslim Brotherhood government posts in exchange for Turkey’s support in ending the unrest, an offer rejected by President al-Assad.

Michel Kilo, 71, a writer who has opposed the ruling Baath party since it came to power in 1963, was jailed from 1980 to 1983 and from 2006 to 2009.

He is a member of the National Committee for Democratic Change (NCDC), which was formed on September 17 and groups Arab nationalists, socialists, Marxists, members of the Kurdish minority and independents such as Kilo.

He said the NCDC has a central committee of 80 members, of whom 25 percent are from the “young revolutionaries” who spearheaded protests against President Bashar al-Assad that broke out in mid-March.

Kilo said the opposition figures in Turkey have not consulted the NCDC and offered it only three representatives among the 71 of its members coming from inside the country.

The Syrian National Council (SNC) was set up in August and consists of 140 people, half of whom live in Syria. The names of its members inside Syria have not been released for security reasons, the council said.

It is dominated by the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood which is banned in Syria, but it includes liberals and Syrian notables.

The group is to meet this weekend in Istanbul in a bid to unify the fragmented opposition movement, a spokeswoman said on Tuesday.

“All our efforts now are not to appear as a movement that wants to eliminate others, we’re trying to offer a national framework,” Bassma Kodmani said.

Opposition movements behind the protests against Assad’s regime have been fragmented and difficult to measure. They are largely split along three lines: Arab nationalists, liberals, and Islamists.

Syrian opposition groups are calling for the first time for an international intervention to protect civilians from President al-Assad regime’s ongoing military onslaught, including the establishment of a United Nations-backed no-fly zone.

The opposition’s formal calls drew a tepid response Wednesday from the Obama administration and European governments, who said there is currently little appetite to reprise the type of air campaign that helped dislodge long-serving Libyan strongman Moammar Gadhafi last month.

The intervention call came Tuesday, when a coalition of leading Syrian opposition groups called on the U.N. and international community to play a greater role in protecting civilians from Syrian security forces.

They called for an internationally supervised arms embargo against Damascus, the establishment of a U.N. monitoring mission and the enforcement of a no-fly zone.

The groups, which presented their petition at a press conference in Washington, include the Syrian Revolution General Commission, a grassroots body working among activists inside Syria; the Damascus Declaration of leading Syrian dissidents; the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood; and the Syrian Emergency Task Force, made up of Syrian-American activists.

“The Syrian Revolution General Commission does seek international intervention in the form of a peacekeeping mission with the intention of monitoring the safety of the civilian population,” said the coalition in a statement released Tuesday.

The Syrian National Council, a body appointed earlier this month to try to lead the opposition, didn’t join Tuesday’s call. But it said civilian protection was a priority it would discuss on Oct. 2 in Istanbul, at its first general assembly meeting.

“In general, the SNC membership are on the same page as those on the ground in Syria and who have been asking for civilian protection for a while,” said council member Yaser Tabbara, a U.S.-based lawyer.

Radwan Ziadeh, another council member, said one proposed scenario for a no fly-zone would cover a 10-kilometer (six-mile) area inside Syria’s northern border with Turkey that would serve as a safe haven. It would be modeled on the U.N.-mandated safe haven in northern Iraq in 1991.

Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, opposes the idea of a no fly-zone because it would encourage the rise of an armed rebellion rather than peaceful resistance.

In Turn, Leaders of Syria’s large minority Kurdish population show signs of organizing against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Several young Kurds have been active in protests and are members of the alliance of young activists that organizes demonstrations, but the cities in predominantly Kurdish areas have been largely quiet.

Kurdish activists and analysts say that in the past three weeks, members of the 11 unofficial Kurdish political parties have met with Kurdish activists from the Local Coordination Committee, an alliance for young protest organizers.

These Kurdish parties plan to name a special committee and hold a conference in Syria within the next few weeks.

Such a Kurdish group would be unrelated to the recently formed Syrian National Council, the country’s largest opposition umbrella. While Kurds say they share the opposition’s overall goal of a democratic Syria, many Kurds have also expressed frustration at what they see as protesters’ Arab agenda, and also say they aspire to greater autonomy within Syria.

“Syrian Kurds are not looking to separate from Syria—though of course the idea of a Kurdistan is a dream,” said Meshal Tammo, the spokesman for the Kurdish Future Movement, a political grouping in northeastern Syria.

“The Kurds are no different from anyone else in Syria—they are scared of what will come afterwards,” said Mr. Tammo.

“It was a question of respect: Obviously there are greater issues than Kurdish grievances at stake, but Kurds need to be assured that they are an important part of a future Syria,” said Massoud Akko, a Kurdish author and activist exiled in Norway, who was among those who left.

In early September, about 50 Syrian Kurds held a solidarity conference in Stockholm and issued a statement that said, “The Syrian revolution will not be complete without a just solution to the Kurdish cause.”

Arab officials at UN said that just the possibility of establishing a no-fly zone over a stretch of Syrian territory could it turn into a “safe haven” that may spur more defections from the Syrian military amid growing indications that lower-ranking officers are deserting.

“There are more and more discussions of this scenario to encourage more and more soldiers’ defections, yet it sounds still difficult” without U.N. backing, said an Arab diplomat.

http://www.dp-news.com/en/detail.aspx?articleid=98286

Activists in Arab World Vie to Define Islamic State

# The New York Times
Reprints September 29, 2011

By ANTHONY SHADID and DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK

CAIRO — By force of this year’s Arab revolts and revolutions, activists marching under the banner of Islam are on the verge of a reckoning decades in the making: the prospect of achieving decisive power across the region has unleashed an unprecedented debate over the character of the emerging political orders they are helping to build.

Few question the coming electoral success of religious activists, but as they emerge from the shadows of a long, sometimes bloody struggle with authoritarian and ostensibly secular governments, they are confronting newly urgent questions about how to apply Islamic precepts to more open societies with very concrete needs.

In Turkey and Tunisia, culturally conservative parties founded on Islamic principles are rejecting the name “Islamist” to stake out what they see as a more democratic and tolerant vision.

In Egypt, a similar impulse has begun to fracture the Muslim Brotherhood as a growing number of politicians and parties argue for a model inspired by Turkey, where a party with roots in political Islam has thrived in a once-adamantly secular system. Some contend that the absolute monarchy of puritanical Saudi Arabia in fact violates Islamic law.

A backlash has ensued, as well, as traditionalists have flirted with timeworn Islamist ideas like imposing interest-free banking and obligatory religious taxes and censoring irreligious discourse.

The debates are deep enough that many in the region believe that the most important struggles may no longer occur between Islamists and secularists, but rather among the Islamists themselves, pitting the more puritanical against the more liberal.

“That’s the struggle of the future,” said Azzam Tamimi, a scholar and the author of a biography of a Tunisian Islamist, Rachid Ghannouchi, whose party, Ennahda, is expected to dominate elections next month to choose an assembly to draft a constitution. “The real struggle of the future will be about who is capable of fulfilling the desires of a devout public. It’s going to be about who is Islamist and who is more Islamist, rather than about the secularists and the Islamists.”

The moment is as dramatic as any in recent decades in the Arab world, as autocracies crumble and suddenly vibrant parties begin building a new order, starting with elections in Tunisia in October, then Egypt in November. Though the region has witnessed examples of ventures by Islamists into politics, elections in Egypt and Tunisia, attempts in Libya to build a state almost from scratch and the shaping of an alternative to Syria’s dictatorship are their most forceful entry yet into the region’s still embryonic body politic.

“It is a turning point,” said Emad Shahin, a scholar on Islamic law and politics at the University of Notre Dame who was in Cairo.

At the center of the debates is a new breed of politician who has risen from an Islamist milieu but accepts an essentially secular state, a current that some scholars have already taken to identifying as “post Islamist.” Its foremost exemplars are Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party in Turkey, whose intellectuals speak of a shared experience and a common heritage with some of the younger members of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and with the Ennahda Party in Tunisia. Like Turkey, Tunisia faced decades of a state-enforced secularism that never completely reconciled itself with a conservative population.

“They feel at home with each other,” said Cengiz Candar, an Arabic-speaking Turkish columnist. “It’s similar terms of reference, and they can easily communicate with them.”

Mr. Ghannouchi, the Tunisian Islamist, has suggested a common ambition, proposing what some say Mr. Erdogan’s party has managed to achieve: a prosperous, democratic Muslim state, led by a party that is deeply religious but operates within a system that is supposed to protect liberties. (That is the notion, at least — Mr. Erdogan’s critics accuse him of a pronounced streak of authoritarianism.)

“If the Islamic spectrum goes from Bin Laden to Erdogan, which of them is Islam?” Mr. Ghannouchi asked in a recent debate with a secular critic. “Why are we put in the same place as a model that is far from our thought, like the Taliban or the Saudi model, while there are other successful Islamic models that are close to us, like the Turkish, the Malaysian and the Indonesian models, models that combine Islam and modernity?”

The notion of an Arab post-Islamism is not confined to Tunisia. In Libya, Ali Sallabi, the most important Islamist political leader, cites Mr. Ghannouchi as a major influence. Abdel Moneim Abou el-Fotouh, a former Muslim Brotherhood leader who is running for president in Egypt, has joined several new breakaway political parties in arguing that the state should avoid interpreting or enforcing Islamic law, regulating religious taxes or barring a person from running for president based on gender or religion.

A party formed by three leaders of the Brotherhood’s youth wing says that while Egypt shares a common Arab and Islamic culture with the region, its emerging political system should ensure protections of individual freedoms as robust as the West’s. In an interview, one of them, Islam Lotfy, argued that the strictly religious kingdom of Saudi Arabia, where the Koran is ostensibly the constitution, was less Islamist than Turkey. “It is not Islamist; it is dictatorship,” said Mr. Lotfy, who was recently expelled from the Brotherhood for starting the new party.

Egypt’s Center Party, a group that struggled for 16 years to win a license from the ousted government, may go furthest here in elaborating the notion of post-Islamism. Its founder, Abul-Ela Madi, has long sought to mediate between religious and liberal forces, even coming up with a set of shared principles last month. Like the Ennahda Party in Tunisia, he disavows the term “Islamist,” and like other progressive Islamic activists, he describes his group as Egypt’s closest equivalent of Mr. Erdogan’s party.

“We’re neither secular nor Islamist,” he said. “We’re in between.”

It is often heard in Turkey that the country’s political system, until recently dominated by the military, moderated Islamic currents there. Mr. Lotfy said he hoped that Egyptian Islamists would undergo a similar, election-driven evolution, though activists themselves cautioned against drawing too close a comparison. “They went to the streets and they learned that the public was not just worried about the hijab” — the veil — “but about corruption,” he said. “If every woman in Turkey wore the hijab, it would not be a great country. It takes economic development.”

Compared with the situation in Turkey, the stakes of the debates may be even higher in the Arab world, where divided and weak liberal currents pale before the organization and popularity of Islamic activists.

In Syria, debates still rage among activists over whether a civil or Islamic state should follow the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad, if he falls. The emergence in Egypt, Tunisia and Syria of Salafists, the most inflexible currents in political Islam, is one of the most striking political developments in those societies. (“The Koran is our constitution,” goes one of their sayings.)

And the most powerful current in Egypt, still represented by the Muslim Brotherhood, has stubbornly resisted some of the changes in discourse.

When Mr. Erdogan expressed hope for “a secular state in Egypt,” meaning, he explained, a state equidistant from all faiths, Brotherhood leaders immediately lashed out, saying that Mr. Erdogan’s Turkey offered no model for either Egypt or its Islamists.

A Brotherhood spokesman, Mahmoud Ghozlan, accused Turkey of violating Islamic law by failing to criminalize adultery. “In the secularist system, this is accepted, and the laws protect the adulterer,” he said, “But in the Shariah law this is a crime.”

As recently as 2007, a prototype Brotherhood platform sought to bar women or Christians from serving as Egypt’s president and called for a panel of religious scholars to advise on the compliance of any legislation with Islamic law. The group has never disavowed the document. Its rhetoric of Islam’s long tolerance of minorities often sounds condescending to Egypt’s Christian minority, which wants to be afforded equal citizenship, not special protections. The Brotherhood’s new party has called for a special surtax on Muslims to enforce charitable giving.

Indeed, Mr. Tamimi, the scholar, argued that some mainstream groups like the Brotherhood, were feeling the tug of their increasingly assertive conservative constituencies, which still relentlessly call for censorship and interest-free banking.

“Is democracy the voice of the majority?” asked Mohammed Nadi, a 26-year-old student at a recent Salafist protest in Cairo. “We as Islamists are the majority. Why do they want to impose on us the views of the minorities — the liberals and the secularists? That’s all I want to know.”

Anthony Shadid reported from Cairo, and Istanbul and Ankara, Turkey, and David D. Kirkpatrick from Cairo, Tunis and Tripoli, Libya. Heba Afify contributed reporting from Cairo.

U.S. at Cross-Purposes in the Middle East

September 29, 2011 -Posted by Greg Scoblete  —

Hillel Fradkin and Lewis Libby have a long essay on America’s fading position in the new Middle East:

Taken together, these trends have called into question a number of strategic concepts on which American diplomacy in the Middle East has rested for decades:

• that a prosperous and democratic Turkey, anchored in the West, would, by example, draw other Muslim countries westward;

• that the failures of fascism, communism, and Shia theocracy, coupled with the enticements and pressures of a global economy, would in time lead the region, with Western help, to realign toward a liberal future in the broader community of nations;

• that the peace Israel reached with Egypt and Jordan would in time radiate outward into peace with other Arab states, and thus minimize the prospects of a major regional war;

• that the world community would prevent states in the region from getting nuclear weapons; and

• that regional divisions and American strength would prevent forces hostile to the US from dominating the region.

I think what’s evident from the above checklist of regional priorities is that they had failure baked in. The U.S. has had a mixed track record when it comes to preventing a major regional war – there was one almost every decade since 1970 – and two of them involved the United States. Nor is it clear why Washington expected that the Middle East would, with “Western help,” realign to a “liberal future” as it simultaneously stopped hostile states from dominating the region and prevented them from acquiring nuclear weapons. “Western help” was (and is) directed toward illiberal states in the region as a bulwark against “forces hostile to the United States.” The process of doing one thing undermines the other.

Put in more concrete terms: is there anyone who sincerely believes that you can support the Saudi monarchy to check Iran while simultaneously “helping” that same monarchy dissolve itself in the name of Western liberalism? It’s sounds like a self-evidently absurd position and yet, it’s being held up as something Obama has failed to do…

The US uncomfortable reality in Syria

By Tony Badran, September 29, 2011

The Obama administration is slowly coming to grips with the uncomfortable reality that its preferred scenario of a peaceful transition in Syria is looking less likely. As much as it had hoped to avoid it, the administration finds itself having to develop contingency plans as signs of armed resistance to Bashar al-Assad’s regime are becoming increasingly visible.

Commenting on this development in the Syrian uprising, State Department spokesman Mark Toner remarked on Monday that “the longer the regime continues to repress, kill and jail these peaceful activists, the more likely that this peaceful movement’s going to become violent.” It’s a matter of self-defense, Toner explained; “It’s not surprising.”

To read more: http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=316485#ixzz1ZNavTJCf