Category Archives: Egypt

The Christians of Egypt, Part I

Posted By Michael J. Totten On November 15, 2011 @ 12:27 am In

Egypt’s Christians are second-class citizens. They were second-class citizens during the rule of Hosni Mubarak, and they aren’t remotely likely to acquire new rights after his fall.

Sectarian clashes between Christians and Muslims are rising. The problem is nowhere near as bad as it was in Iraq between Sunnis and Shias after the removal of Saddam Hussein, but it is getting worse. The army is doing only a half-assed job protecting Egypt’s largest minority, and it even participated in the violence itself and killed dozens when the driver of an army truck rammed himself into a crowd of Coptic Christian demonstrators last month.

When I spent part of the summer in Cairo I hoped to speak with at least one Coptic leader, but I wasn’t able to land an interview. I even hired a fixer to help me, and she couldn’t secure an interview for me, either. I was however, thanks to a reader tip via email, able to meet with a Protestant Christian, Ramez Atallah, who is the head of the Bible Society of Egypt.

Most Westerners — Christian or otherwise and myself included — are bound to be uncomfortable with at least some of what he has to say, but he lives in a different world and doesn’t see things the same way Western Christians might expect.

My colleague Armin Rosen joined me in Ramez’s office.

——————-

MJT: Can you tell us a bit about Christian-Muslim relations in Egypt and what it’s like to live as a Christian here?

Ramez Atallah: The issue in Egypt isn’t Christians, it’s Muslims. Christians are incidental to the issue. There is too much focus in the West on the Christians here.

MJT: Really? You think so? Most people think there’s hardly any focus in the West on the Christians of Egypt.

Ramez Atallah: Those are selfish people who think they should be the center of the world. The real limitations on human rights in Egypt’s future will be focused on Muslims. The people here who are most afraid are the Muslims, not the Christians. If we get an Islamically-biased government — and I’m being optimistic by describing it that way — Christians won’t be persecuted. The Muslim Brotherhood is moderate at least compared with the Salafists. They won’t persecute Christians. They will limit Christians, but they won’t persecute Christians. The people who will be persecuted are Muslims.

MJT: You mean secular Muslims.

Ramez Atallah: Not just secular Muslims. Not all religious Muslims are with the Brotherhood. I just heard a speech from a religious Muslim woman — she’s veiled — and she said, “please don’t take my country away from me. Don’t take my freedom away from me.”

MJT: She was saying this to the Muslim Brotherhood?

Ramez Atallah: Yeah, yeah. She was saying this very strongly. A large number of Muslims are intellectual, educated, and liberal-minded. You have to understand that for a religious Muslim, Islam is as closely entwined with his identity and his being as your gender identity. If you had total freedom to do whatever you wanted, you would not think of changing your gender. Right?

MJT: Right. I wouldn’t.

Ramez Atallah: It wouldn’t even be on your radar screen. Westerners think religious freedom in Egypt means Muslims can opt out of being Muslims. But it’s a completely false supposition. No Muslim doesn’t want to be a Muslim. It’s part of their being. So when Egyptians talk about freedom and revolution, it has nothing to do with Islam. No Egyptian wants to be free of Islam. This is the most religious country in the entire world. According to a Gallup poll, between 99 and 100 percent of Egyptians say religion is very important to them.

So Islam is not the issue. What is the issue is the interpretation of Islam. Over the years, a large group of Muslims in Egypt have contextualized Islam in the modern world. They can practice their Islam and live as 21st century citizens. Women can dress modestly, yet also fashionably. They can go the beach in swimsuits. Maybe not bikinis, but swimsuits. They can drink alcohol from time to time. They are modern people.

Muslim society here as a whole has become more religious, but that does not mean they have all limited their lifestyle. So if and when the Muslim Brotherhood takes over, they’ll say “Muslims are not allowed to show their body, so the beaches are only for Christians and foreigners.” So if Muslim women want to swim, they will have to swim fully dressed. These women will be horrified to have these sorts of restrictions put on them.

Then the Muslim Brotherhood will say, “women will have to do such and such, and men will have to do such and such.” Islam is a way of life as well as a belief, so if you don’t interpret it in an open-minded way, your life will be very hard.

The Salafist movement is violent. Imagine if the Amish ruled America and used force to make everyone else live just like them. They wouldn’t, of course, they are peaceful people, but imagine the Amish using force to rule America and require everyone in the United States to adopt their lifestyle. That’s the Salafist movement. They’re the extremists. They adopt old-school Islam and also the old-school Islamic style. The Muslim Brotherhood is less extreme. They will let men wear a tie. But when it comes to women, the Muslim Brotherhood are much more conservative than the average educated Muslim would like. They also impose a lot of restrictions on men.

Because the United States is negotiating with the Muslim Brotherhood, there’s a conspiracy theory in Egypt that says the Brotherhood, the Egyptian army, and the State Department came to an agreement a long time ago and that everything that’s happening now is just play acting.

MJT: How many people actually believe that?

Ramez Atallah: Lots of people believe that.

MJT: Because the three groups are talking to each other? Is that the only reason?

Ramez Atallah: Because they’re the three most powerful groups in Egypt, not because they’re talking to each other.

The Egyptian army is trained by the United States. During the revolution I saw Barack Obama on CNN talking about how American military officers are meeting with their counterparts in the Egyptian army. These military people are like American employees. They’re trained by America, they use American weapons, and they get financial support from America. They’re just as corrupt as Mubarak’s people.

I’d like for the Western press to fight for the rights of Muslims and forget the Christians.

MJT: Really? Why?

Ramez Atallah: Because the minute moderate Muslims are okay in Egypt, Christians can breathe. Christians can live. If there are no more moderates in power in Egypt, Christians will be very limited. But they won’t be as badly off as the Muslims. We are a sort of protected species in Egypt. We will suffer less than the Muslims.

MJT: But you currently have restrictions that they don’t have.

Ramez Atallah: We always have. And we live with them. The restrictions don’t stop us from living and building. For 125 years the Bible Society has been here. I can do anything I want. If I can’t do something, it’s only because I don’t have the resources. I can put ads on the highway, in the newspapers, and on television. I can sell the Bible. If a Muslim wants to buy a Bible, he is welcome to come into my bookshop and buy a Bible. No one will harass him. But that’s because I work carefully within the restrictions of the system. I can’t proselytize by giving out Bibles free of charge, but if someone wants to come in here and buy one, he can. We can do enough as Christians within the limitations.

The problem is that the Muslim Brotherhood will make more restrictions, but they will be tolerable. If the Salafists take over, they will start butchering us.

MJT: They’re the Taliban, basically.

Ramez Atallah: Yes, they’re like the Taliban. But that’s not really a possible scenario. The possible scenario, the likely scenario, is a Muslim Brotherhood government with a Muslim Brotherhood prime minister. The other possible scenario is having another president from the army.

The American government is not concerned about the rights of Muslims to become Christians or atheists. It’s not on the radar screen. They’re just concerned about this minority of Christians. That is seen, so transparently, as Western disdain for human rights. They’re not really human rights, they’re Christian rights. The whole big furor in the West about Christian rights ignores the average Muslim and his rights, except for political rights. The average American is not very concerned about the restrictions of freedom on Muslims as Muslims. They’re concerned about the rights of Muslims to become Christians or atheists.

They have this belief that democracy will make people happier, but in this culture a benevolent dictatorship may make us happier. Look at Iraq. Look at Afghanistan. Are they better off? I’d say no. Millions of Christians have left Iraq since the war. The average Christian has not been protected, and neither has the average Muslim. The situation is chaos. The Americans can’t put in a benevolent dictator because that doesn’t fit their world view, but if Iraq had a benevolent dictator a lot of Iraq’s problems would be solved. Americans support dictators in Saudi Arabia, but they don’t want to deliberately install a dictator in Iraq or Afghanistan. But that’s what they need. It’s the only way to stop the Taliban. Though a dictator would kill people, torture people, and put people in prison, eventually you’d get law and order. But America won’t support this. Americans want people to vote and make their own decisions, but then you get chaos.

MJT: Okay, so what do you think about removing Hosni Mubarak?

Ramez Atallah: As they say, power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. In the last decade, Mubarak and his honchos forgot that they were accountable. Since the Nasser era, the security apparatus was built on the KGB model. We were in the Russian orbit. We accepted socialism from Russia but rejected communism because we’re a Muslim nation. Communists in Egypt were tortured to death. One of my relatives was a doctor and a communist and he was tortured to death during the Nasser era. Egypt was against communism, but espoused socialism. The package that came with socialism included the KGB model of intelligence.

Sadat and Mubarak gave us more freedom and a capitalistic system, but they didn’t respond to the man-in-the-street situation. Nasser was a populist. He was a charismatic leader. People like me, when we were young, were all for him. He was like Fidel Castro in Cuba. There was a sense that he was going to liberate us from occupation, from the French and the others, and give us our dignity back. We followed the man.

Sadat brought in a regime change. The world was mesmerized by his peace with Israel, but he led such a sophisticated and high-class life that he didn’t care for the poor and the destitute. The capital he brought in was helpful on the one hand, but it didn’t help the poor people. Mubarak continued with Sadat’s philosophy, but not enough of the common people shared the wealth. Mubarak lost touch and forgot that he needed the approval of the masses to rule. He found himself way out of sync with the street. Nasser wasn’t.

Today the big challenge we have is the aspiration of the revolution for freedom and democracy in a country where people are not trained to have inner control. It’s nearly impossible.

When Egyptians go to the West, they tend to go haywire. Divorce rates are very high. Why do they go haywire? Because in Egypt, everything that is permitted is okay. Restrictions are put upon you by the society, not by religion. So if I go to a hotel today and want to register a room with a woman who is not my wife, they won’t let me.

The government here does not just protect my physical state like it does in the United States. There the government infringes on your human rights by insisting you wear a seat belt. You don’t have a choice to not wear that seat belt. Why? Because the government says it has the right to force you to do what’s best for you physically. So you wear that seat belt whether you like it or not or you will get in trouble. Maybe it saves your life.

In Muslim countries, including Egypt, the government says it’s interested in our physical well-being, but it’s more interested in our spiritual well-being. The government will not allow us to do anything that goes against God. The government wants to help you go to Heaven, so I cannot check into a hotel with a woman who is not my wife. The government restricts that. Some Westerners get up in arms and say it’s a restriction of human rights, but it’s no different than forcing you to wear a seat belt. It’s part of a government worldview that says, “we want to protect you.” So if a couple is making out in a car they’ll spend a few nights in jail to repent for their awful sin. If a homosexual declares that he’s homosexual, he’ll get put in jail until he repents. I’m not saying this is good. I’m just explaining how it works.

So the average Egyptian, when it comes to right and wrong, will push up to the limit of what is allowed. During the revolution, when people had no inner control, they went haywire. They stole property, they tore down things, they abused people. It was completely haywire. People no longer feared the police. They could spit on a policeman and nothing would happen to them. Today if you get put in jail, all your friends and family — which could be 200 people — come to the police station where there are only ten policemen, beat them all up, and they get you out. Nobody can do anything. Police aren’t allowed to shoot people anymore, especially not women and children who come and storm the prison.

When we lose the fear of authority in a country where since the time of the Pharaohs authority came from outside, we cannot have a Western-style democracy. People here don’t have the kind of inner controls that Westerners have. In the West, sin is available. Adultery is available. Here, it’s not. We have no dirty magazines. Playboy has never been sold in Egypt. The society protects my morals. Once these restrictions are gone, people go haywire.

Armin Rosen: But the social order hasn’t broken down in Egypt as badly as it could have. Most people seem pretty well-behaved. I don’t feel unsafe walking around at night.

MJT: I don’t either.

Armin Rosen: So things went haywire in what sense?

Ramez Atallah: You’re fortunate. There are some places in the city where you would not be safe.

MJT: Where, exactly?

Ramez Atallah: The places where they’ve burned churches. But a while back you would have been safe in those places. Cairo is still one of the safest cities in the world. It’s still safer than American cities, but it’s more dangerous than it was.

I don’t idolize the West. Raising my kids in a Muslim society has been healthier for them than if I would have raised them in the West. Mainstream Islamic values are close to Christian values. It’s the extreme Islamic values that aren’t. An advantage of Mubarak was that he kept the extremists at bay.

Westerners don’t understand that the Muslim government of Egypt requires my children to have a Christian education or they can’t graduate. Your Western government doesn’t even allow Christian children to study Christianity in public schools. In Egypt, it’s obligatory for Christians to study Christianity just like it’s obligatory for Muslim to study Islam. The people forcing my children to study Christianity are Muslims.

There are many things in a Muslim culture that are good even though there are also many things that are bad. I’m not an idealist about it, but we have very little rape here. Women are not afraid of being raped on the streets. You’re more likely to get raped on a college campus in the United States than in Cairo.

When I was living in Montreal a woman down the street from me was murdered for her purse which had only ten dollars in it. Here she might be robbed, but she wouldn’t be murdered. There are advantages to living in a Muslim country as long as the extremists are kept at bay. Before, women wearing swimsuits on the beach would not be harassed or accosted or spat on. Now they are harassed and spat on by young men who say they shouldn’t be dressed that way.

MJT: Where do they get this attitude? From the mosque? From the Muslim Brotherhood? From the Salafists? From all of them?

Ramez Atallah: A man was recently talking to two American ladies at the beach. They were there in their swimsuits. One was wearing a bikini. He told them he felt really sorry for Christian men. The ladies asked why. He said, “because men like me see your body. My woman would never been seen in public that way. She is only for me. I can see you half-naked, but no other man gets to see my wife half-naked.”

One of the women said, “but you can have four wives.” And he said, “yes, and this way I can be faithful. I can fool around within the four while your husband will be tempted by others.” This was an educated Muslim man. He really believes Muslim men and women are better off.

Armin Rosen: Do you think Egypt will eventually become a democracy, despite what you said about how hard it is when people lose their fear of authority? And would you think that’s a good thing?

Ramez Atallah: I think we’re going to have something like a civil war followed by a very strong hand for a while. It may loosen afterward, but we’ll get it.

MJT: What do you mean by “like a civil war?”

Ramez Atallah: National consensus is very hard to achieve. When Mohammad ElBaradei, who is a candidate for the presidency, went to vote for the constitutional referendum earlier this year, he was beat up at the polling station. When a candidate for the presidency isn’t allowed to vote in an election that had nothing to do with the presidency, how many people in his campaign do you think will be beaten up in an election that does have something to do with the presidency? It’s going to be terrible.

Now imagine an election for 500 different seats in the parliament. If three people run for each seat, that’s 1500 candidates. A lot of people are going to get beaten up.

Armin Rosen: So you have no faith in the Egyptian people’s ability to run a democratic system?

Ramez Atallah: If there was consensus, if there weren’t so many different vested interests that have been suppressed before the lid was taken off all of a sudden, then maybe. We have two or three million Salafists all of a sudden. Where did they come from? Before, a Salafist trying to speak in a mosque would have been arrested at once.

I used to tell Westerners that the only reason they’re safe on the streets is because Muslims are being tortured and jailed. They didn’t believe me. But the people being tortured and jailed were the people who wanted an Islamic regime in Egypt and to overthrow Mubarak. They were the ones in jail. Not the Christians.

The Salafists are acting like the Taliban. We need a strongman to keep the Salafists down.

If the Muslim Brotherhood gets in charge, they will torture and jail the Salafists.

MJT: You think so?

Ramez Atallah: They have to. Of course! When the Muslim Brotherhood is in power, the big opposition is not going to come from Christians or Muslims, but from the Salafists who believe the Brothers are not Muslims. The Salafists believe the Muslim Brotherhood people have sold out.

MJT: Sold out to whom?

Ramez Atallah: Sold out to materialism, modernity, and the West.

MJT: The Muslim Brotherhood is extremely anti-Western.

Ramez Atallah: Sure, but the Salafists are ten times worse. And they’re also anti-Brotherhood. The Salafists aren’t like the Sufis.

MJT: Oh, I know.

Ramez Atallah: Sufis are into peaceful mysticism. The Salafists are violent people who believe they can use the sword to accomplish God’s will. And they actually use swords. They don’t use guns. They use swords and knives when they attack people because Islam had no guns. The Salafists do not believe that the Muslim Brotherhood people are real Muslims. They will cooperate in order to get a Muslim government in.

MJT: They’re cooperating right now.

Ramez Atallah: They are cooperating. But the Muslim Brotherhood also cooperates with the remnants of the Mubarak regime. They will cooperate pragmatically. But it’s very unlikely that the Salafists won’t cause a lot of grief to the Muslim Brotherhood if the Brothers take over. The Muslim Brotherhood will have to control them. And how will it control them? The same way they were controlled. They will oppress the same way they were oppressed.

I’m pessimistic about an easy or a quick solution. We’re going to have many many years of grief in this country.

The Military in Politics: The Turkish model

Turkey’s Military Is a Catalyst for Reform
The Military in Politics

by David Capezza
Middle East Quarterly
Summer 2009, pp. 13-23

http://www.meforum.org/2160/turkey-military-catalyst-for-reform

Analysts generally consider military influence in politics and society to be a critical impediment to the development of democratic political and civil rights and freedoms. According to Freedom House, for example, greater military involvement in government politics decreases civil liberties and political rights in any given country; this infringes on a government’s ability to develop democracy.[1]

In 1826, Sultan Mahmud II broke the power of the sultan’s guards, the Janissaries, enabling him to reform the military and begin Westernization of the empire.

Turkey may be an exception. The military has deep roots in society, and its influence predates the founding of the republic. But rather than hinder democratization, Turkey’s military remains an important component in the checks and balances that protect Turkish democracy. Herein lies an irony: European officials have made diminishment of military influence a key reform in Turkey’s European Union accession process. This may be a noble goal, but by insisting on dismantling the military role in Turkish society without advancing a new mechanism to guarantee the constitution, well-meaning reformers may actually undercut the stability of Turkey as a democracy.

From Turkey’s founding, the military assumed responsibility for guaranteeing the republic’s constitution. Article 35 of the Turkish Armed Service Internal Service Code of 1961 declared that the “duty of the armed forces is to protect and safeguard Turkish territory and the Turkish Republic as stipulated by the constitution.”[2] Indeed, such an interpretation had its roots in the constitution. Turkey’s first constitution was written in 1921, and since the formal proclamation of the republic, the country has had three additional constitutions—in 1924, 1961, and 1982. Until the constitutional amendments of 2001, each placed responsibility in the military’s hands for the protection of the Turkish state from both external and internal challenges. The constitution of 1982, for example, prohibited contestation or constitutional review of the laws or decrees passed by the military when the republic was under its rule from 1980 until 1983. This effectively provided the military with a legal exit guarantee following their coup in 1980.[3] Specifically, article 15 stated, “No allegation of unconstitutionality can be made in respect of laws, law-amending ordinances and acts and decisions taken in accordance with the law numbered 2324 on the law on the constitutional order.”[4]

The Turkish military has used this sense of constitutional authorization to justify interference in the political realm, on some occasions. It seized power in 1960 and 1980 when polarization and economic instability paralyzed the country’s political system, and it also forced the resignation of governments in 1971 and 1997. While the Turkish constitution certainly does not endorse coups, Turkish popular distrust of politicians has generally led the public to support military action.

This constitutional role began to unravel, however, in September 2001, when the Turkish parliament amended the constitution to ensure that the Constitutional Court (Anayasa Mahkemesi) review any decisions involving maintenance of freedoms and allegations of unconstitutionality.[5] Therefore, the military may not act upon allegations of unconstitutional acts until there has been prior court review. Other structural factors augment the Turkish military’s role. On July 23, 2003, the Grand National Assembly passed a reform package which called for a civilian to lead the powerful and historically military-led National Security Council (Milli Güvenlik Kurulu, MGK), a body which advises—but, more realistically, directs—the president in the formation of his security policies, policies which in Turkey traditionally span internal and external threats. On August 17, 2004, President Ahmet Necdet Sezer appointed former ambassador to the U.K., Mehmet Yiğit Alpogan, to head the MGK.[6] Nevertheless, the military remains a force wielding more political power than it does in Western democracies. The commander of the Turkish General Staff, for example, answers directly to the prime minister and is not subordinate to the minister of defense, nor are the appointments to senior military posts subject to the affirmation of politicians.

The Ottoman Military Tradition

The augmented role of Turkey’s military, both in politics and as a catalyst for reform, has deep historical roots. It is true to say that throughout much of Ottoman history, the military stymied reform. The Janissaries, the sultan’s household troops and bodyguard, remained a force resistant to change into the early nineteenth century, but in 1826, Sultan Mahmud II (r. 1808-39) broke their power,[7] enabling him first to reform the military and then to begin Westernization of the empire. Mahmud’s reforms continued, with a few brief interruptions, throughout the remainder of the century.

While there was general recognition in Ottoman domains that the Empire had to modernize, there was also public criticism that the sultan’s reforms subordinated Ottoman tradition to European ways.[8] The reforms of Mahmud II may not have won broad public support, but they did nevertheless sow the seeds of liberty in Ottoman society. With ideas of political and social liberty beginning to permeate the Ottoman world, a number of Ottoman nationalists and government bureaucrats formed a group in 1865 called the Young Ottomans, which sought to transform the sultanate into a constitutional republic with an elected parliament. The Young Ottomans used the printing press to disseminate works on liberty, justice, and freedom.

They made halting progress. In 1877, for example, the Ottoman Empire had its first parliamentary election, but within months, Sultan Abdul Hamid II (r. 1876-1909) disbanded the parliament and shortly thereafter, in 1878, annulled the constitution itself. Assessing the failure, emeritus Princeton historian Bernard Lewis explains: “the reforming edicts had brought some changes in administrative procedures, but had done nothing to protect the subject against arbitrary rule.”[9]

The only institution that could protect the populace against arbitrary rule was the military. Although it had been able to overthrow successfully the power vested in the sultan at certain times—as when the Janissaries rose up against Sultan Selim III’s (r. 1789-1807) military reforms in 1807—it required the support of the populace, something illustrated by the failure of an 1826 revolt.[10] Conversely, the Young Ottomans, while generally supported by the populace, lacked the most crucial element to implement their ideas: the support of the military. As Ismail Kemal, a leader of the Albanian independence movement in 1912, stated, “By propaganda and publications alone a revolution cannot be made. It is therefore necessary to work to ensure the participation of the armed forces in the revolutionary movement.”[11]

Recognizing the need to have the support of both the military and the people to facilitate a successful revolution, in 1906, a group of young military officers, including Mustafa Kemal, who would later take the single name Atatürk, created a revolutionary organization called Vatan ve Hürriyet (Fatherland and Freedom) to advance political revolution and reform in the Empire. They kept their group distinct from civilian groups such as unionists and liberals who feared a concentration of power in the central government.

On July 23, 1908, Sultan Abdul Hamid acquiesced to the revolutionaries’ demands and ushered in a new era of constitutionalism. However, the İttihat ve Terakki Cemiyeti (Committee of Union and Progress, CUP) was able to suppress the internal military mutiny and restore order within the ranks by sending an army to the capital to end the instability. By April 27, 1909, with the accession of Abdul Hamid’s brother Mehmed V (r. 1909-1918) to the throne, the army effectively ensured that it would be involved in the establishment of a new constitution and would inevitably remain involved in politics for an extended period of time. However, the decision to return authority to civilian hands set a precedent for what would soon become the military-political symbiosis that distinguishes modern Turkey.[12]

Atatürk and After

In the wake of the Ottoman Empire’s defeat in World War I, the Allied powers, including France and Great Britain, sought to divide Anatolia into zones of influence and to have Istanbul demilitarized under international control. From chaos and defeat, Atatürk rallied troops to take Istanbul, repel foreign forces, and crush rebellious factions. Empowered by military success and growing nationalist sentiment, Atatürk negotiated peace terms with the Allied powers and declared Turkey’s independence.[13] On October 13, 1923, the new parliament declared Ankara the capital and, shortly after, the Grand National Assembly elected Atatürk president.[14]

The military founded the Turkish Republic with the support of the people. The main reason for its success and the establishment of a new government was Atatürk’s pragmatic approach as he checked his own power with moderate decision making.[15] Kemalism evolved to become a measured approach, combining nationalism, populism, étatisme, laicism, and reformism.[16] The Constitution of 1921 reinforced social, economic, and judicial equality; support for state-owned industries; recognition of a secular political life; and the idea that reform was necessary for the state to remain relevant to the populace’s needs.[17]

Atatürk formalized a separation of the military from politics. Article 148 of the Military Penal Code prohibited serving military officers from political party membership or activities and declared that the military would be neutral in its support of the political system. Simultaneously, however, the article empowered the military to act as “the vanguard of revolution” with the right to “intervene in the political sphere if the survival of the state would otherwise be left in grave jeopardy.” Article 34 of the Army Internal Service Law of 1935 stipulated that the military was constitutionally obligated to protect and defend the Turkish homeland and the republic,[18] a clause interpreted by generations of Turkish officials to allow military leaders to intercede whenever the internal politics of Turkey destabilize the republic.

Atatürk did not foresee military involvement in day-to-day politics, and he certainly did not tolerate military interference with his agenda. Rather, having arisen from the military, he used it as a power base from which to enforce his reforms. Under Atatürk’s successor, İsmet İnönü, the question over the military’s future role in politics gained greater significance. The first question to arise was the role of the chief of staff who, under Atatürk, reported directly to the prime minister rather than the minister of defense. Given Turkey’s strong premiership, this made the military a more independent power base, one not subordinate to a civilian defense minister. İnönü chose to continue this modus operandi.[19]

After a successful election in July 1946, İnönü and the Republican People’s Party (Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi, CHP) won majority support although the Democrat Party (Demokrat Parti, DP) established itself as a serious minority party. The Democrats dominated the May 1950 elections, winning 470 seats to the CHP’s 69. İnönü stepped down, and power passed to Prime Minister Adnan Menderes and President Celal Bayar. They relaxed restrictions on Islam’s role in society, encouraged private enterprise in order to hasten economic development, and implemented social welfare programs. After winning a huge majority in the May 1954 elections, Menderes introduced more authoritarian legislation, restricting freedom of the press and limiting freedom of assembly.[20] By 1959, disgruntled opposition members boycotted the Grand National Assembly and threatened to take their protests to the streets. The Turkish political scene had grown volatile.[21]

1960, 1971, 1980: Military Coups and Intervention

In April 1960, amidst student protests and unrest between the government and the opposition parties, the military launched a coup to restore political and social order, installing a Committee on National Unity led by General Cemal Gürsel. On May 27, they arrested Bayar, Menderes, other members of the Democratic Party cabinet, deputies, and officials. Prime Minister Menderes and two members of his cabinet were executed after the coup. The following year, the Committee of National Unity created a larger constituent assembly, rewrote the constitution, and submitted it to popular referendum. After sponsoring elections, the military returned power to civilian control in November 1961. The Grand National Assembly appointed Gürsel president, but he first resigned from the military. While historians and diplomats may condemn the coup, the Turkish experience stands in sharp juxtaposition to that in Egypt, Iraq, and Syria where the military seized control and refused to relinquish power. Even neighboring Greece had to wait seven years to restore civilian control.

Turkish society, however, remained unstable through much of the 1960s as the debate about Turkey’s place in the Cold War and the spread of socialism grew more polarized. While the socialists could not consolidate control, they were still able to undermine the ability of coalition governments to operate.[22] Between 1965 and 1969, the reactionary leftist groups grew strong alongside the nationalist right. This led to an increasingly virulent left-right struggle, which often manifested itself in violent clashes. Trade Unions, which ironically gained the right to strike only in the 1961 constitution, increasingly took to the streets. The balance-of-payments deficit worsened, inflation increased, and in 1970, the government devalued the currency. In early 1971, civil violence rose sharply. There were student clashes with the police, kidnappings, murders, and bombings of government buildings. In the military’s opinion, the situation had become untenable. The deteriorating situation and Prime Minister Süleyman Demirel’s inability to maintain order convinced the military to intervene again in order to recalibrate and stabilize political life.[23]

On March 12, 1971, the Turkish military sent a memorandum to President Cevdet Sunay and Prime Minister Demirel insisting on the need to appoint a new government to calm society and to resolve continued economic problems. In the two years that followed, debate over the future of the republic raged among the political parties and between civil and military institutions. The successor government to Demirel’s collapsed after Prime Minister Nihat Erim was unable to bridge the differences between his government, the Justice Party (Adalet Partisi), and the Republican Peoples Party.[24] After the March 1973 parliamentary elections, the political parties elected retired Admiral Fahri Korutürk as president on April 6. After the precedents of Gürsel and Sunay, the rise of a retired military official to the presidency seemed natural; after all, the military was seen as above politics and, in the Turkish system, the president is traditionally a consensus figure who can rise above political party antics. Nevertheless, the legacy of the 1971 intervention is mixed. While the military did force the government to reshuffle, its goal of establishing a “powerful and credible government” did not succeed, given that four weak coalition governments rose and fell in the thirty-one months following the memorandum.[25]

Turkey remained unstable. High inflation, cuts in public expenditures, and labor disputes led to protests and strikes. Meanwhile, there were general malaise and rising political turmoil between Bülent Ecevit’s ruling CHP and its Islamist rival, Necmettin Erbakan’s National Salvation Party (Milli Selamet Partisi).[26] Between 1971 and 1980, there were eleven successive governments. Most were too greatly sidetracked by their efforts to contain rivalry within their coalition to tackle social unrest, extremism, and an economic crisis exacerbated by the 1973 oil embargo. With this increase in unrest and the political situation untenable, the military again decided to “invoke the power granted to them by the Internal Service Code to protect and look after the Turkish Republic.”[27] On September 12, 1980, the military carried out a nonviolent coup, arresting 138,000 people, of whom 42,000 received judicial sentences. Restrictive laws clamped down on political demonstrations and strikes. Unlike the 1971 coup, in which the military only took a guiding role in reestablishing the political system, in 1980, it used a heavy hand to restore order.[28]

Up to the 1983 elections, primary power rested in the military leadership and was channeled through the National Security Council under General Kenan Evren. The military dominated most aspects of society, taking strict control of universities, dismissing or transferring academics, depoliticizing the public service system, and dissolving existing political parties. In essence, the military enforced martial law to ensure public safety. [29] The military, once again, issued a new constitution. In 1983, Turgut Özal and the Motherland Party (Anavatan Partisi, ANAP) assumed power with Evren serving as president.

While many academics and Western diplomats view military interventions in black and white terms as always antithetical to democracy, throughout these formative years of Turkish democracy, this was not the case. Nilüfer Göle, director of studies at the école des Hautes études in the Centre d’Analyse et d’Intervention Sociologiques in Paris, writes, “the military interventions of 1960-1961, 1970-1973, and 1980-1983 can be perceived as state reactions against the ‘unhealthy’ autonomization and differentiation of economic, political and cultural groups.”[30] The military simply sought the continuance of the Kemalist ideology, which had broad popular support and was the template upon which the constitution allowed various political parties to act.[31]

Erbakan and His Legacy

Following the coup of 1980, the military stayed out of politics and, indeed, under Özal, who served as prime minister from 1983-89 and president from 1989-93, lost some of its political autonomy, even as it remained free from civilian control. Only when Prime Minister Tansu Çiller began to lose control during an economic and social crisis in 1994 (during which inflation reached 100 percent) did the military again begin to involve itself actively in politics.[32]

In 1996, after winning just 21 percent of the vote the previous year, Erbakan became prime minister as the leader of a coalition between Çiller’s True Path Party (Doğru Yol Partisi, DYP) and his own newly-formed Welfare Party (Refah Partisi, RP). He was an ardent Islamist, but while he was disliked by the military, the Turkish General Staff did not seek to prevent his accession, both because the Turkish military does not intervene as lightly as some of its detractors suggest and because, holding 158 of 550 seats in parliament, his party could not rule without its Kemalist coalition partners.[33]

Almost immediately, however, the Erbakan government began to support a strong pro-religious platform and a reorientation of foreign policy as Erbakan visited Iran and Libya. In February 1997, the National Security Council reported that the foundations of Turkey’s political structure were being undermined by the government’s pro-Islamist policies. Amidst growing disaffection among the populace due to the government’s religious policies, the military forced Erbakan’s resignation and, within months, the Constitutional Court banned the Refah,[34] but not before Refah officials had formed new parties to which they transferred most of their party’s assets. Recai Kutan assumed command of the spin-off Fazilet Partisi (Virtue Party) and mollified Refah’s hard-line position. It was nevertheless banned in 1998 after the Constitutional Court found that the party’s Islamist platform breached the 1982 constitution.[35] Supporters of the Virtue Party led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in turn formed the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) in July 2001.

Erdoğan, a former mayor of Istanbul, was a controversial figure in Turkey. In 1998, a Diyarbakir court convicted him of inciting religious hatred after he read an Islamist poem at a political rally,[36] and even after the party swept to victory in the November 2002 elections, he remained prohibited from holding office, a ban overturned the following February.

The AKP’s rise had less to do with its Islamist agenda than with public disgust over corruption scandals among the more traditional parties amidst the November 2000 banking and February 2001 currency crises.[37] On a single day on February 22, 2001, the Turkish lira lost one-third of its value.[38] Erdoğan is a skilled politician. He moderated both his and his party’s image to ensure that the AKP would not meet the fate of Refah or Fazilet. As public confidence in Ecevit and his coalition partners waned, Erdoğan sought to appeal to a constituency beyond the AKP’s Islamist base. A July 2000 poll conducted by the Ankara Social Research Center found that 30.8 percent of those surveyed would vote for Erdoğan’s party.[39]

The Rise of Erdoğan

And so it came to be. In 2002, the AKP gained power with 34 percent of the vote. Because five other parties fell just short of the ten percent threshold necessary to enter parliament, this propelled the AKP’s grip on parliament to a clear majority with 363 seats in the Grand National Assembly, the largest majority in Turkey’s multiparty era. The CHP, Turkey’s oldest political party but one which had not been represented in the 1999 parliament, won 19 percent. A clear reflection of the popular dismay with the previous government, the Motherland Party received just over five percent of the vote.

The AKP hewed a moderate foreign policy line when it assumed office. Unlike Erbakan, Erdoğan embraced the European Union accession process. For the AKP, this was a brilliant tactical move. By blurring—rather than sharply defining—the line between pro-Western orientation and Islamism, Erdoğan provided his party with plausible deniability about its goals; it could be all things to all people. In Central Anatolia, its deputies could preach Islamism while party officials convinced Turkish businessmen in Western-oriented cities such as Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir that it was committed to orienting Turkey closer toward Europe. Simultaneously, the 1999 Copenhagen Criteria, which outlined the reforms necessary to join the European Union, would weaken military influence within the Turkish state. Not only would a civilian lead the National Security Council, but the body would meet only six times a year, cutting by half the opportunities it had to micromanage policy. As important, European Union reforms placed military expenditures under the scrutiny of the Court of Accounts, a body similar to the U.S. General Accounting Office.[40]

Turkey’s military is divided about whether European Union accession is a reflection of traditionalist Kemalist views. Perhaps two-thirds of the Turkish public supported Ankara’s bid to join the European Union upon announcement of the Copenhagen Criteria. General Hüseyin Kivrikoğlu, chief of the Turkish General Staff at the time, said that “joining the EU was a geopolitical necessity,” whereas a retired general commented that “EU membership was against Turkey’s history and contradicted the Kemalist revolution.”[41]

As Copenhagen Criteria reforms weakened the power of the military in internal Turkish affairs, Erdoğan has advanced an Islamist agenda which has altered Turkish society. The most prominent example of the AKP’s Islamism has been its argument that Turkish women should have a legal right to wear veils in schools and public institutions, a policy traditional Kemalists and the military consider a symbolic affront to the Turkish government’s secularism. Here, ironically, Erdoğan has clashed with European officials. After the European Court of Human Rights backed the ban on head scarves in public schools, the prime minister complained, “It is wrong that those who have no connection to this field [of religion] make such a decision … without consulting Islamic scholars.”[42]

However, the AKP’s attempts to roll back the separation between mosque and state involve more than the head scarf. In May 2006, the Erdoğan-appointed chief negotiator for European Union accession talks ordered state officials to cease defining Turkey’s educational system as secular.[43] Indeed, Erdoğan moved to equate Imam Hatip religious school degrees with those of public high schools, thereby enabling Islamist students to enter the university and qualify for government jobs without serious study of basic Western principles.[44] When university presidents complained about growing AKP political interference and Islamist influence in their institutions, Erdoğan ordered the police to detain the most outspoken university rector on corruption charges that later proved baseless.[45]

Distrust of the AKP and its agenda solidified after a gunman, reportedly upset with a ruling against the veil law, stormed the Council of State, equivalent to the Supreme Court, and opened fire shouting, “I am a soldier of God,” killing one justice.[46] Erdoğan declined to attend the dead man’s funeral. Both the President and Yaşar Büyükanıt, chief of the Turkish General Staff, have warned publicly of growing threats to secularism. On April 12, 2006, Sezer said, “Religious fundamentalism has reached alarming proportions. Turkey’s only guarantee against this threat is its secular order.”[47] The following day, Büyükanıt warned military cadets of growing Islamic fundamentalism and said that “every measure will be taken against it.”[48]

The military was, however, powerless to intervene, at least compared to 1960, 1971, 1980, and 1997. On April 27, 2007, Büyükanıt held a press conference to stress that the military wanted the next president of Turkey to uphold the original principles of the republic. Traditionally, the Grand National Assembly and major political parties agreed on a nominee for president, as the position, unlike in the United States, was meant to be above politics and held by a consensus figure. Erdoğan, however, had a majority in parliament to choose the president without consulting political rivals and simply announced that his candidate would be Abdullah Gül, the foreign minister in the AKP government.

Hours later, the Turkish General Staff posted a statement on its website declaring, “Some circles who have been carrying out endless efforts to disturb fundamental values of the republic of Turkey, especially secularism, have escalated their efforts recently,” warning that the “fundamentalist understanding [of the government] was eroding the very foundation of the Turkish Republic and the ideas that it was founded upon.”[49] Rather than step aside with relative grace as had Erbakan, the AKP issued a rebuttal, reminding the military that in “democracies,” the military does not intervene in the political process.

Islamists and many diplomats branded the military’s statement as an “Internet coup,” casting the military as aggressors, rather than defenders of a constitutional order violated by Erdoğan. After a constitutional battle over procedures, the AKP-dominated Grand National Assembly selected Gül as president, further consolidating the party’s power and effectively eliminating any future presidential vetoes over concerns about the constitutionalism of AKP legislation.

Since winning a second term and consolidating control with 46.7 percent of the vote, Erdoğan has gone on the offensive. After surviving a judicial challenge which could have resulted in the disbandment of the AKP on questionable constitutional grounds, the AKP pushed forward with prosecutions on an alleged nationalist and Kemalist plot to cause chaos in order to provide an excuse for military intervention. AKP-led prosecutors and security forces have detained hundreds of journalists, retired military officers, political rivals, and academics. While, at its root, physical evidence exists to suggest some malfeasance on the part of radical Kemalists, there is little evidence to suggest a widespread plot.

The AKP, therefore, faces growing criticism that it is using the case as an excuse to intimidate or silence anyone who opposes its agenda.[50] The importance of the so-called Ergenekon prosecutions, though, is to show just how little influence and control the military has over Turkish society. Simultaneously, should the Ergenekon prosecutions represent an internal putsch by Erdoğan against his and the AKP’s opponents, the episode shows how unbalanced Turkish democracy can become when the military can no longer effectively act as a force for constitutionalism and reform.

The Military Exits?

Turkey remains a strategic asset to the West. Its military is the second largest in NATO, and it is the preeminent Western security force in what is considered by many Westerners to be the most volatile region in the world. With Turkey at the doorstep of the European Union, it is ever closer to realizing its movement to the West. Ironically, it may not be able to take this final step without recognition of the domestic role of its military.

Since the days of the Ottoman Empire and throughout the history of the Turkish Republic, the military has been the one institution that has repeatedly checked civilian autocratic tendencies, maintained moderation, and ensured the preservation of the state. While Western officials may view repeated coups as antithetical to democracy, the military has always returned power to the civilian sector. Indeed, the elements that complain loudest about military involvement tend to be those least committed to constitutionalism and least tolerant toward political opponents.

Moreover, the military has, since the late nineteenth century, maintained the push towards modernization while continuing the tradition of the Ottoman and republican Turkish societies. Though the external environment has changed dramatically, the military has remained an anchor for society.

The EU accession process has driven reforms that have weakened the military’s internal role. While many democracy experts and leaders of EU member states argue that the military should not have a role in internal politics,[51] Turkey is different. The Turkish political system is dynamic and permits a wider range of political views and philosophies to compete on the political stage than many other European states. The system has not always worked well, however; on several occasions, such as that leading to the 1960 coup, politicians consolidating disproportionate control have appeared ready to cast aside the foundational principles of Turkish democracy. In other instances, such as 1971 and 1980, parliamentary fractiousness has impeded coalition formation or effective government. Ordinary democratic processes were unable to resolve the political stalemate. When the Turkish military intervened, it did so to restore democratic stability, not supplant it. From 1923 to the present day, the military has proven its commitment to democracy and constitutionalism and, indeed, only invokes its role as a constitutional check and balance as a last resort.

In essence, the military has acted as a guide to usher Kemalist principles into full realization. This is not to say that the military should continue to have a dominant role in perpetuity. However, failure to recognize the military’s unique and traditional role as the protector of the public from any political party’s undemocratic consolidation of power and as the defender of the constitution is dangerous because it creates the possibility that the checks and balances of Turkish society might collapse without creation of a new system of supervision. As Turkey and its people move into the future, the military should move as well. Just as Atatürk modernized Turkey and initiated its drive toward the West, European officials should consider the military a reformist force without which Ankara’s movement further to the West might not occur.

David Capezza is a consultant for the Center for New American Security in Washington, DC.

[1] Freedom in the World, 2007 (New York: Freedom House, 2007), pp. 986-7.
[2] Tim Jacoby, Social Power and the Turkish State (New York: Frank Cass, 2004), p. 133.
[3] Levent Gönenc, “The 2001 Amendments to the 1982 Constitution of Turkey,” Ankara Law Review, Summer 2004, p. 93.
[4] Serap Yazici, “A Guide to Turkish Public Law and Legal Research: 10.2, The Constitutional Amendments of 2001 and 2004,” GlobaLex, Hauser Global Law School Program, Jan. 2009.
[5] Serap Yazici, “A Guide to the Turkish Public Law Order and Legal Research: The Constitutional Amendments of 2001 and 2004,” GlobaLex, Hauser Global Law School Program, Sept. 2006.
[6] Sabah (Istanbul), Aug. 18, 2004.
[7] Bernard Lewis, The Emergence of Modern Turkey (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002), p. 78.
[8] Ibid., 125-8.
[9] Ibid., p. 171.
[10] William Hale, Turkish Politics and the Role of the Military (New York: Routledge, 1994), p. 16.
[11] Quoted in Lewis, The Emergence of Modern Turkey, p. 202.
[12] Alexander L. Macfie, The End of the Ottoman Empire, 1908-1923 (New York: Longman’s, 1998), pp. 41-56.
[13] Metin Tamkoc, The Warrior Diplomats: Guardians of the National Security and Modernization of Turkey (Salt Lake City: University of Utah Press, 1976), pp. 10-9.
[14] Roderic H. Davidson, Turkey: A Short History (Huntingdon, U.K.: Eothen Press, 1998), pp. 121-7.
[15] Tamkoc, The Warrior Diplomats, p. 28.
[16] Donald Everett Webster, The Turkey of Ataturk: Social Process in the Turkish Reformation (Philadelphia: The American Academy of Political and Social Science, 1939), pp. 162-72.
[17] Ibid., pp. 163-71.
[18] Hale, Turkish Politics and the Role of the Military, pp. 72, 80.
[19] Ibid., p. 83.
[20] Walter Weiker, The Turkish Revolution, 1960-1961 (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1963), pp. 6-11.
[21] Davidson, Turkey: A Short History, pp. 148-54.
[22] David Shankland, The Turkish Republic at Seventy-Five Years (Huntingdon, U.K.: Eothen Press, 1999), p. 94.
[23] Hale, Turkish Politics and the Role of the Military, pp. 175-9.
[24] Ibid., pp. 194-200.
[25] Ibid., pp. 207-8.
[26] Ibid., pp. 216-7; Davidson, Turkey: A Short History, p. 171.
[27] General Kenan Evren, quoted in Hale, Turkish Politics and the Role of the Military, p. 246.
[28] Erik Cornell, Turkey in the 21st Century (Richmond, U.K.: Curzon Press, 2001), pp. 36-7.
[29] Davidson, Turkey: A Short History, p. 172.
[30] Nilüfer Göle, “Toward an Autonomization of Politics and Civil Society in Turkey,” in Metin Heper and Ahmet Evin, eds, Politics in the Third Turkish Republic (Boulder: Westview Press, 1994), pp. 213-22, quoted in Sylvia Kedourie, Seventy-Five Years of the Turkish Republic (London: Frank Cass Publishers, 2000), p. 141.
[31] Kedourie, Seventy-Five Years of the Turkish Republic, p. 139.
[32] Ibid., pp. 136-9.
[33] Feroz Ahmad, Turkey: The Quest for Identity (Oxford: One World Publishers, 2003), pp. 168-70.
[34] Cornell, Turkey in the 21st Century, pp. 45-9.
[35] Thomas Carroll, “Turkey Shuts down the Islamists … Again,” Middle East Intelligence Bulletin, July 2001.
[36] Turkish Daily News (Ankara), Sept. 28, 1998.
[37] Soner Cagaptay, “Turkey Goes to the Polls: A Post-Mortem,” Policywatch, no. 675, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Washington, D.C., Nov. 7, 2002.
[38] “Economic Survey of Turkey, 2002,” Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris, Oct. 2002.
[39] Umit Cizre, Secular and Islamist Politics in Turkey (New York: Routledge Press, 2007), pp. 201-3.
[40] Soner Cagaptay, “European Union Reforms Diminish the Role of the Turkish Military: Ankara Knocking at Brussels Door,” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Washington, D.C., Aug. 12, 2003, p. 214.
[41] Ahmad, Turkey: The Quest for Identity, pp. 175-6.
[42] Turkish Daily News, Nov. 15, 2005.
[43] Turkish Daily News, June 1, 2006.
[44] Turkish Daily News, Oct. 24, 2005.
[45] Sabah, Oct. 23, 2005.
[46] Turkish Daily News, July 14, 2006.
[47] Turkish Daily News, Apr. 14, 2006.
[48] Turkish Daily News, Oct. 3, 2006.
[49] BBC News, Apr. 27, 2007.
[50] Michael Rubin, “Erdogan, Ergenekon, and the Struggle for Turkey,” Mideast Monitor, Aug. 8, 2008.
[51] “Foreign Affairs, Sixth Report: The Military,” the Committee on Foreign Affairs, British House of Commons, Apr. 23, 2002.

Related Topics:  Middle East politics, Turkey and Turks  |  Summer 2009 MEQ receive the latest by email: subscribe to the free mef mailing list To receive the full, printed version of the Middle East Quarterly, please see details about an affordable subscription. This text may be reposted or forwarded so long as it is presented as an integral whole with complete information provided about its author, date, place of publication, and original URL.

Arab Spring boosts political Islam, but which kind?

By Tom Heneghan, Religion Editor | Reuters –

(Reuters) – More democracy is bringing more political Islam in the countries of the Arab Spring, but Islamist statements about sharia or religion in politics are only rough indicators of what the real effect might be.

The strong showing of Tunisia’s moderate Islamists in Sunday’s election and a promise by Libyan National Transitional Council leader Mustafa Abdel Jalil to uphold sharia have highlighted the bigger role Islamists will play after the fall of the autocrats who opposed them.

These Islamists must now work out how to integrate more Islam into new democratic systems. Many terms used in the debate are ambiguous and some, especially the concept of sharia, are often misunderstood by non-Muslims.

Jan Michiel Otto, a Dutch law professor who led a recent study of how 12 Muslim countries apply sharia, said political Islam covers a broad spectrum of approaches.

“If sharia is introduced, you don’t know what you’ll get,” said the Leiden University professor, editor of the book Sharia Incorporated. His study indicated that, contrary to what many Western observers might think, more Islam did not always mean less liberty.

Yasin Aktay, a Turkish sociologist at Selcuk University in Konya, said Sharia itself was not a defined legal code and not limited to the harsh physical punishments seen in Saudi Arabia or Iran.

“That’s a fetishised version of sharia,” he said.

ENNAHDA LEADS THE WAY

Many Middle Eastern constitutions already enshrine Islam as the official religion and mention sharia as the basis of law, but also have civil and penal codes based on European models.

Apart from Saudi Arabia, which has only Islamic law, Middle Eastern countries apply a complicated mix of religious and civil law. Sharia can be applied almost symbolically in one country, moderately in another and strictly in a third.

Ennahda, the Islamist party leading the vote for Tunisia’s constituent assembly, is the first in the Arab Spring countries to have to start spelling out how much Islam it wants.

It says it respects democracy and human rights and wants to work with secularist parties to draft a new constitution. Its leader Rachid Ghannouchi has long advocated moderate Islamist policies like those of the AKP, the ruling party in Turkey.

The Tunisian constitution declares Islam as the official religion but does not mention sharia as the foundation of the legal system. Given the country’s strong secularist traditions, Ennahda would face serious opposition if it tried to have sharia declared the basis of law there.

Aktay said Ghannouchi’s writings in the 1980s helped to influence Turkish Islamists to shift their paradigm from seeking a state based on sharia to entering democratic politics.

Since then, the AKP’s success in Turkey has served as a model for Ghannouchi as he entered practical politics in Tunisia, he added.

EGYPT’S MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD

Egypt, which is due to elect a new lower house of parliament by early December, describes Islam as the state religion in its constitution and calls it the main source of laws.

The Muslim Brotherhood is expected to emerge as the largest party. Its bid to build a “Democratic Alliance” has foundered, with most of the liberal and rival Islamist groups splitting away to run on their own or form other blocs.

“I don’t believe the Brotherhood will claim more than 25 percent of the parliamentary seats, which is an important bloc but not a majority,” said Hassan Abu Taleb from Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.

Egypt has also allowed several Salafist groups to run. The Salafists, who Abu Taleb said could take up to 10 percent of the vote, want strict implementation of Islamic laws, including those their critics say are anti-democratic.

LIBYA

In Libya, former dictator Muammar Gaddafi ruled by decrees that included mention of Islam as the state religion and sharia as the inspiration for at least some laws.

NTC chairman Jalil surprised some Western observers on Sunday by saying sharia would be the source of Libyan law, but he had already spoken in more detail about it.

“We seek a state of law, prosperity and one where sharia is the main source for legislation, and this requires many things and conditions,” he said in early September, adding that “extremist ideology” would not be tolerated.

The exact place of sharia in the legal system in practice will only be settled once a new constitution is written by a constituent assembly and approved by a referendum.

Libya’s Muslim Brotherhood has fewer than 1,000 members because under Gaddafi recruitment was secretive and restricted to elites, said Alamin Belhaj, a member of the NTC and a senior member of the group.

SYRIA

Syria, where an uprising against President Bashar al-Assad has been raging since March, has a secularist government but mentions Islam as the source of law in its constitution.

The main opposition body, the National Council, has so far named 19 members to its general secretariat. Four are members of Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood and six are independent Islamists.

It has yet to spell out its platform or make clear what kind of a state should take over, if Assad is overthrown.

“In Syria, the Islamist current is a moderate movement,” said Omar Idlibi, an activist with the grassroots Local Coordination Committees.

(Reporting by Tom Heneghan in Paris, Tamim Elyan and Shaimaa Fayed in Cairo and Mariam Karouny in Beirut; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

In Crowded Cairo Quarter, Islamist Try to Seize Mantle of Revolution

By

CAIRO — In one of Cairo’s most crowded quarters, where streets are so filled with trash that bulldozers scoop it up, the Muslim Brotherhood has opened not one but two offices. Its most conservative counterpart has followed suit. An Islamist do-gooder with forearms as broad as the Nile has vowed to win a seat in Parliament.

Egypt’s parliamentary election may be nearly two months away, but the contest has already begun in the neighborhood of Imbaba, where the arc of the Egyptian revolution is on display. The clarity of the revolt has given way to the ambiguity of its aftermath, and Islamic activists here who failed to drive the popular uprising — some, in fact, opposed it — are mobilizing to claim its mantle amid the din of protests, confusion and, last week, violence.

Imbaba may not be Cairo — it is more like a distilled version of the city — but it says a lot about where an anxious country may be headed as it approaches an election that will help decide the future character of an unfinished revolution.

From the caldron of frustration the revolt represented, Islamic activists here have built on their formidable charity across a landscape where liberal and secular forces have made almost no impression. Residents debate programs but often have only the agendas of religious parties to go on. Even the most secular voices — the few there are — wonder if it is not time to give the Islamists a chance.

“They’re the only ones organized, and they’re the only one who deliver to people in need,” Amal Salih, a 24-year-old resident of Imbaba, said with a measure of regret.

Ms. Salih came of age when Imbaba was in the throes of militant Islamists, who earned her neighborhood along the Nile the nickname of the Islamic Republic of Imbaba. Embarrassed, the government eventually deployed 12,000 troops, arrested a man called Sheik Gaber who had imposed his notion of order here and occupied the neighborhood for six weeks. The government offered promises that typically proved illusory; just a year before the revolution, a leading official promised that Imbaba would soon look like Cairo’s most upscale neighborhoods.

It never did, and by the time the revolution began, Ms. Salih joined the protests against her parents’ wishes.

She wears a veil, but she calls herself secular. She laments the resurgence of religious forces, but she clings to the hope that her time in Tahrir Square symbolized.

“We can’t be impatient,” she said. “Every revolution in the world takes time.”

In Imbaba, as elsewhere in Cairo, those memories of Tahrir Square represent an ideal that seems to grow more pristine the longer the ruling military council delays the transition to civilian elected government. During the revolution in Imbaba, youths made the point that religion rarely drove their demands, even in a pious locale like this one. As security collapsed, neighborhoods banded together, almost spontaneously, to face any provocation, imagined or otherwise.

Residents said a rich businessman who operated boats on the Nile helped organize popular defense committees. In a neighborhood named for blacksmiths, family elders abstained from their usual evenings over coffee in cafes and set up checkpoints. A spice seller named Sheik Salama and butchers from the Qut family helped organize guards for a stretch of street that hosted a branch of Bank Misr and the Munira Police Station.

“It was spontaneous,” said Magdy Obeid, a young academic in Imbaba. “We participated as Egyptians. We did not know someone was puritanical, Muslim Brotherhood, or whatever. We were just Egyptian, and there was no distinction between us.”

Mr. Obeid sat in a dingy apartment that was dark but for the glow of the late afternoon. He sipped a soft drink as he remembered those days, then turned to the present. “Now it’s only the Islamic currents,” he said, nodding. “Without a doubt, until now, they’re the only ones who have emerged. No one else is on the scene.”

Imbaba is as proud as it is crowded — by some estimates, it is three times denser than Manhattan. One resident estimated its population at 15 million, a vast overstatement given that Cairo itself is only 18 million or so. But the exaggeration underscored the sheer challenge of bringing relief to a neighborhood where no one walks a quiet street. Three-wheeled motorized buggies known as tuk-tuks ply the streets. Since the revolution, builders have ignored codes, piling floor atop floor on red-brick buildings never too high to escape the din.

In February, some of the most puritanical Islamists here handed out fliers urging people to support President Hosni Mubarak; with his fall, they seek to replace him with one of their own. Posters on mosques outline a program no different than any liberal agenda, save for item No. 1 — Islamic law — and a number listed at the bottom reserved for female callers.

“The people here are poor, and they have no idea about democracy or politics,” said Ayman Abdel-Wahab, a Brotherhood member sitting in the group’s office, which opened here in July. “They’ll side with whomever they think can offer them help.”

On the walls of mosques like Furqan and Tawba, posters beckon residents to come and get to know the Brotherhood, still the most potent of Egypt’s Islamist currents. Mr. Abdel-Wahab said the group tried to serve as an intermediary between residents and overwhelmed local officials, and regularly distributed sugar, oil and rice to hundreds of the most needy. A banner hangs over one of Imbaba’s main thoroughfares trumpeting a Brotherhood celebration of the neighborhood’s best students. (Each received a watch and certificate.) Youths are offered summer trips to beaches. Other Islamist charities provide monthly payments — $15, sometimes a little more — to widows.

Of course, there is nothing new in Islamist activists taking the lead in offering charity in Cairo, but only now is it so intertwined with the fortunes of coming elections.

“Some people say that the services I provide are equivalent to that of 50 members of Parliament,” declared Yasser Suleiman, known by everyone here as Sheik Yasser.

In an office adorned with a plaque that reads “The Koran and nothing else,” Sheik Yasser oversees a staff of 20 employees providing help to 1,500 orphans with a budget, he says, of $330,000. His short-sleeve shirt reveals arms that seem too stout to belong to the accountant that he is. A failed candidate in the last election for Parliament, he is determined to win this time around, campaigning on his 25 years of charity work here.

“That’s the fruit of freedom and democracy,” he said.

Under Mr. Mubarak’s long rule, the divergent currents of Islamists were often grouped under the rubric of “the religious.” That is no longer the case. The Brotherhood now openly competes with groups that have lately become more assertive: the Salafists, the most puritanical current, along with the once-militant Islamic Group, which renounced violence in the late 1990s. Not even the Brotherhood claims to know the relative weight of each, though some residents blame the Salafists for a new current of intolerance in Imbaba as well as sectarian clashes that erupted this summer with Christians. Rumors are traded furiously of Salafists administering vigilante justice. In one version, a youth stealing tuk-tuks had either his hand amputated or his ear sliced off.

Ayman Abdel-Aziz, a pharmacist whose office abuts the new headquarters of the Salafist Nour Party, nodded with approval at the story. Though calling himself secular, he had grown weary of the crime wave in Cairo; even his business had been broken into.

“These days, you have to deal with those people and instill fear,” Mr. Abdel-Aziz said. “Yes, it’s savage, but it’s the perfect way to deal with all those thugs among us.”

He vowed not to vote for the religious currents, but he understood the logic these days. After decades of repressive rule sometimes conflated in the street with the notion of secular liberalism, he said, people were willing to consider alternatives, however austere.

“The argument goes like this,” he said. “Give them a chance. Let’s try them out.”

On a night in which an autumn breeze offered respite from Cairo’s pollution, Sayyid Abdel-Khaleq joined his friend Khaled Said on a trip to the Brotherhood’s office. In the past week they had paid visits to two liberal parties and the Nour Party, as they tried to figure out whom to vote for in December. The liberals seemed dated, they said, and the Salafists felt as though they were still “in the kindergarten of politics.” That left the Brotherhood, although Mr. Abdel-Khaleq said “a lot can happen between now and then.”

“During the revolution, we adhered to no membership,” he said. “We were motivated by ourselves, for ourselves, and we were driven by what was inside us.”

“Now,” he added matter-of-factly, “it’s the time for parties.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/18/world/middleeast/in-cairo-quarter-islamists-try-to-profit-from-revolution.html?pagewanted=print

 

Istanbul on the Nile: Why the Turkish Model of Military Rule Is Wrong for Egypt

Steven A. Cook–

In the weeks and months since Egypt’s military officers forced then President Hosni Mubarak from power and assumed executive authority, the country’s military rulers have shown an interest in applying what many have taken to calling the “Turkish model.” Spokesmen for the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), along with some civilian politicians, have floated the idea of replicating in Egypt today aspects of a bygone era in Turkish politics.
Despite some similarities between the Egyptian and Turkish armed forces, Egypt’s officers would be ill advised to try to emulate their counterparts in Turkey. Not only would they be bound to fail but, in the process, would make the struggle to build the new Egypt far more complex and uncertain.

Egypt’s military commanders are not so much interested in the latest manifestation of the Turkish model, in which a party of Islamist patrimony oversees political and economic reforms as part of an officially secular state, but rather an older iteration of it. This version of the Turkish model was a hallmark of Turkey’s politics from the time of the republic’s founding in 1923 until the early 2000s. It offers a template for civil-military relations in which the military plays a moderating role, preventing — at times, through military-led coups — the excesses of civilian politicians and dangerous ideologies (in Turkey’s case, Islamism, Kurdish nationalism, and, at one time, socialism) from threatening the political order.
Turkey’s political system had a network of institutions that purposefully served to channel the military’s influence. For example, the service codes of the armed forces implored officers to intervene in politics if they perceived a threat to the republican order, and military officers held positions on boards that monitored higher education and public broadcasting. Meanwhile, various constitutional provisions made it difficult for undesirable groups — notably, Islamists and Kurds — to participate in the political process.
The most prominent among the military’s channels of influence was the Milli Guvenlik Kurulu, or National Security Council, (known by its Turkish initials, MGK). Turkey’s 1982 constitution directed civilian leaders to “give priority consideration” to the council’s recommendations so as to preserve “the existence and independence of the State, the integrity and indivisibility of the country, and the peace and security of the country.” The MGK’s directives were rarely defied. The officers who served on the council had a definition of national security that ranged well beyond traditional notions of defense policy, including everything from education and broadcasting to the attire of politicians and their wives.
In some ways, the SCAF would not have to do much to approximate the Turkish model on the Nile. The two militaries do share some important similarities. For example, like the Turkish General Staff, which worked tirelessly to ensure the political order that Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and his commanders established after the end of World War I, the Egyptian officer corps has long maintained a commitment to the regime that its predecessors, the Free Officers, founded in the early 1950s. In both the Turkish and Egyptian cases, this sense of responsibility stems from a sense that the military, equipped with the best organization and technology, is set off from the rest of society and is the ultimate protector of national interests. This outlook tends to breed a suspicion — even hostility — toward civilian politicians.
In addition, both militaries developed robust economic interests directly tied to their countries’ political systems. In Turkey, the armed forces became part of an economic landscape that favored large holding companies controlled by a few established families whose economic interests were connected to the status quo. In Egypt, the military itself is directly involved in a wide array of economic activities, including agriculture, real estate, tourism, security and aviation services, consumer goods, light manufacturing, and, of course, weapons fabrication.
Both the Turkish General Staff and Egypt’s present-day officers have an aversion to politics and the day-to-day running of their countries. They prefer to leave the responsibilities and risks of governing to civilians, or, in Egypt’s case, to a delegate from the armed forces. This sort of arrangement is precisely what it means to rule but not govern.
Now, with the SCAF effectively in control of Egypt, there is evidence that some Egyptians, both civilians and officers, are studying the Turkish model and its political implications. Since assuming power in February, the Egyptian military has taken measures to shield commanders from prosecution in civilian courts, a protection Turkey’s parliament just stripped from its own officer corps. They have also floated proposals through non-military representatives to shield the defense budget from parliamentary oversight, maintain ultimate authority over defense policy, and even establish a National Defense Council that resembles features of Turkey’s MGK before that body was brought to heel in 2003 through constitutional reforms. And the participation of military officers in Egypt’s electoral commission looks a lot like the Turkish military’s surveillance of society through membership on various government boards.
If the officers’ moves seem like a backhanded way of creating the conditions favorable for an enduring political role for the Egyptian army, they are. Still, members of the SCAF have been careful to say that they will abide by Egypt’s new constitution when Egyptians ratify the yet-to-be written document. They say that whatever role the Egyptian people assign to them is the role that they will respectfully fulfill. Of course, if the Egyptian people want some approximation of the Turkish model, then the military is bound to discharge that mission.
Yet if the members of the SCAF truly want to be like their Turkish counterparts, they are going to have to be more directly involved in the constitution writing process. Although some of the intellectuals, judges, and other figures on the National Council who are charged with drafting constitutional principles favor the military’s continued presence in politics, their support is unlikely to be enough given the mistrust with which revolutionary groups and others view the military.
In Turkey, although the military was not directly involved in writing the 1961 constitution, the country’s officers stepped in a decade later to tighten up aspects of the document that they deemed to be too liberal. A little less than ten years later, Turkey’s generals stepped in again and directly oversaw the writing of a new constitution (which the country is now considering abolishing and replacing with a new document) that not only reinforced existing levers of military influence but also created additional means for the armed forces to intervene in the political system.
The development of a Turkish-style role for the Egyptian officer corps also presumes that there is broad elite support for such a system. In Turkey, the officers enjoyed the support of judges, lawyers, academics, the press, big business, and average Turks who were committed to the defense of Kemalism against far smaller groups of Islamists and Kurds who were long considered to be outside the mainstream.
Despite some high-profile advocates, such as the politician Amr Moussa and the judge Hisham Bastawisi, there are few influential supporters for the military becoming the arbiter of Egyptian politics. This does not bode well for the military should they seek to replicate the Turks. On the eve of recent protests intended to pressure the SCAF to meet various revolutionary demands, more than two dozen political parties demanded that the military outline when and how it will hand over power to civilians.
The only place where the military has support is among the Muslim Brotherhood. This is significant. Indeed, the Brotherhood was a central player in an effort to bring a million people into the streets last Friday to demonstrate their support for the SCAF. Yet as important as the Brotherhood’s support for the military may be, the officers should take little comfort from its embrace. The Islamists in the Brotherhood do not support the military as much as they want to undermine the revolutionary groups, liberals, and secularist parties that they oppose.
In addition, the Brotherhood and the officers are — just as they were in the early 1950s — competitors rather than collaborators. For its part, the Brotherhood can make claims to being better nationalists and potentially better stewards of Egypt than the armed forces, which are tainted by their association with the United States and Mubarakism. Whatever backing the Brotherhood is currently offering the military and the SCAF is surely tactical and does not extend to carving out a political role for the officers after a transition to civilian leaders.
Finally, the most important feature of Turkey’s system under the tutelage of the military was the Turkish officers’ singular ideological commitment to Kemalism. This was a motivating factor for generations of officers and their civilian supporters.
In contrast, it remains unclear exactly what the SCAF believes in. The Egyptians are not die-hard secularists, democrats, Islamists, or authoritarians. Other than generic platitudes about democracy and respect for the Egyptian people, the officers seem only interested in stability, maintaining their economic interests, and preserving the legitimacy of the armed forces despite having been the backbone of a thoroughly discredited regime for 60 years. As a result, the SCAF seems to be willing to hand over power to anyone who can guarantee those three interests. It is this kind of political opportunism that is fatal to a Turkish model on the Nile. Without a compelling narrative about what Egyptian society should look like and the role of the military in realizing this vision, it is unlikely that the officers will garner the kind of support necessary in order for elites to voluntarily give up their own potential power in favor of military tutelage.
For all of the political dynamism, energy, and creativity that Egyptians have demonstrated since Mubarak’s fall, the country is also wracked with a host of debilitating problems: persistent protests, economic problems, political intrigue, intermittent violence, and a general state of uncertainty. To some Egyptians, it seems that the military’s firm hand is necessary to keep all of the country’s political factions in line while building the new Egypt. After all, the Turkish officers tamed Turkey’s fractious and sometimes violent political arena, and the country is now freer than ever before.
But such analysis is backward. Turkey’s democratic changes, which remain far from complete, happened despite the military, not because of it. Regardless, attempts to replicate in Egypt aspects of Turkey’s experience would be met with significant opposition, increased political tension, more uncertainty, and potential violence, all of which create the conditions for the emergence of new authoritarianism. With the many potential drawbacks of trying to copy the Turkish armed forces, the Egyptian officers should not even bother trying.

_______________________________________________________________
STEVEN A. COOK is Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the author of The Struggle for Egypt: From Nasser to Tahrir Square, to be published this fall. Foreign Affairs.

http://copticsolidarity.org/en/opinion/222-istanbul-on-the-nile-why-the-turkish-model-of-military-rule-is-wrong-for-egypt

No Arab Spring, says US intelligence analyst

Barçın Yinanç
ISTANBUL- Hürriyet Daily News
Friday, October 7, 2011

The Arab Spring did not take place, according to a US-based intelligence analyst, who said there has been no regime change in the Middle East except Libya. ‘Not every bid of unrest is a revolution and every revolution is not democratic,’ says George Friedman, adding that Turkey is the leader in the region and old powers don’t like rising powers, and that though the US currently needs Turkey because it leads the region, in the long run Turkey will become more powerful and relations will sour

The Arab Spring did not happen, according to George Friedman, the head of global intelligence firm STRATFOR Institute, because there has been no regime change in the Middle East. Turkey is the leader of the Islamic world but it is still not a mature power, said the author of “The Next 100 years,” in which he predicted that Turkey will rise to be a great power. “Turkey is still very cautious and it is testing its strength,” he told the Daily News during a recent interview in Istanbul.

Q: You recently said Turkey was a power but not a mature one. How so?

A: A mature power has institutions for managing international systems. The U.S., at the outset of World War II, did not have intelligence service [and] very few trained diplomats. Turkey is more advanced than that, but it does not have a diplomatic corps that is matched to Turkey’s responsibilities in the world. It does not have Portuguese speakers, experts on Mexico; it takes a while to develop this. It takes a while to develop intelligence services. The foreign minister said Turkey has opened 21 embassies in Africa, but who mans them? Who are the Africa experts?

Q: You are warning Turkey that it is not rewarding to be a big power.

A: America is the major power. We are not loved, we are resented. It is the fate of countries that take leading roles. They will disappoint some countries, anger other countries. Turkey is not yet experienced with the sense of injustice of trying to do good but being claimed to have done badly.

Q: Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu would have objected to the comparison with the U.S. and said Turkey was out there with the best of intentions. Why shouldn’t we be liked?

A: You will be liked. But it is easy to be liked when Turkey refrains from acting. But when Turkey has to act it does not act because it decides (when) to be an aggressive power. It will be facing a crisis along its southern border, then the crisis will spill over to Turkey; that is just an example.

Q: In the next 100 years, will the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) “zero problem” policy be sustained?

A: It is a transitionary moment. I have always said that Turkey will be a great power; I did not say Turkey is already a great power. AKP has two policies: One is to be a major power in the Islamic world and simultaneously to avoid engagement. This is precisely the foreign policy it should have now. But 10 to 20 years from now, it will not be able to maintain that. Because as you send out your businessmen, you would have to have political influence to guarantee their security, their interests, etc. Soldiers are one way to interfere in a country; businessman can interfere, too. So the process will draw you into engagement. There will be a moment where Turkey’s interests will seriously diverge from those of another country and that will be the time Turkey will have to decide to act or suffer the harm. It will not happen because Turks decide to be aggressive; it will happen because they will be pursuing their interests. And that will lead to criticism; don’t forget that when you act, you make mistakes.

Q: Everyone is criticizing Turkey now for its problems.

A: Problems are not determined by whether Turkey wants to have them; it has to do with the dynamics of the region. These problems arise not because Turkey is creating them. Turkey has a policy of not creating problems.

Q: Looking at your writings, it seems that you are not changing your projections due to Arab Spring.

A: No, because the Arab spring did not happen. No regime fell except Libya and that’s because of NATO. In Egypt, one general is replaced by four generals. In Syria, Bashar al–Assad is still in power. There is tremendous excitement but there is very little action, very little outcome. Not every bit of unrest is a revolution. Every revolution does not succeed. Every revolution is not democratic, and the democratic ones can elect (rulers like) Ayatollah Khomeini. There is talk about massive democratic uprising; first of all it was not massive in Egypt – most of the country was not affected. Second, those who rose up did not have a common idea of what should come next. Third, they did not overthrow the regime. They got rid of Mubarak and that was what the army wanted, too.

Q: You have previously claimed that Turkey should leave its EU bid and lead the Islamic world. You maintain that autocratic regimes will continue in the region but Turkey has opted for democratic change.

A: Unless Turkey wishes to invade countries and impose regimes on it, it will work with the regimes that are there. Turkey would have to be insane to join the EU. It is the leader of the Islamic world. It has the largest Muslim economy, it has by far the largest military force, and its economy is so dynamic that it is creating a vortex in the region. The best thing that happened to Turkey is the fact it was not admitted to the EU.

Q: How does Turkey’s present situation fall into the realities of the Arab Spring and the call by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for secularism, for instance?

A: It told us more about Erdoğan and the AKP than the effect it made in North Africa. That he choose to make that statement was important. But there is a huge gap between voicing an opinion and taking an action and responsibility. Turkey is in a position of transitioning from the time when it was a weak power, and all it had was its opinion to offer to a time when its opinion matters because it is followed by the expectation to act.

Q: You also argue that old powers don’t like rising powers. Can we assume therefore that the U.S. doesn’t like Turkey?

A: In the long run there will be bad feelings. But in the short run, the U.S. needs Turkey as a stabilizing force in the Middle East. It no longer wants to play a role for the time being. Turkey also wants stability in the region but does not have the power yet to create that stability, it will reach out to the U.S and we will redefine the relations. But down the road as Turkey becomes more powerful, the U.S. will become more frightened and the relationship will change again.

Q: On strained relations between Israel and Turkey, is it a prelude Turkish-U.S. contention?

A: With Turkey taking on its current position, its relationship with Israel has become a liability. The level of visibility cuts against other interests. But lately we’ve seen signs that Turkey is having closer relations with the U.S. Israel is close to the U.S. therefore Turkish-Israeli relations will be more constrained.

Q: You don’t foresee a conflict between Turkey and Israel?

A: I don’t think it is possible. Turkey does not have the military to project force against Israel. It does not want to be in Syria, let alone engage Israel. And Israel does not want to engage Turkey. You are not in a situation of divorce or hostility. You are in a situation which certain relationships continue, but in which public diplomacy shifts to where Turkey can take advantage of other relationships.

Q: Is Turkey punching above its weight?

A: This government is careful not to do that. One of the reasons it doesn’t engage is because it manages its strength. Turkey is testing its strength. You see that in the case of its policy toward Libya and Syria.

Who is George Friedman?

Dr. George Friedman is the founder and chief executive officer of Stratfor, a global intelligence and forecasting company. He is the author of several books, including New York Times bestsellers, such as “The Next Decade” and “The Next 100 Years,” in which he predicts that Turkey will be a great power; as such, he has advised global players to learn Turkish.

A very popular keynote speaker, Friedman is in high demand at conferences and industry-specific events for private organizations and government agencies. He was recently in Istanbul to moderate the energy simulation of Turkish Industry and Business Association (TÜSİAD) that was also attended by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu.

“We have taught the same courses,” he said about Davutoğlu, adding that the latter was one of the most interesting of the many foreign ministers that he has met.

Friedman lives in Austin, Texas.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=no-arab-spring-says-us-intelligence-analyst-2011-10-07

Will Egypt Have A Revolution?

October 2, 2011,Walter Russell Mead—

The Arab Spring has reached its first autumn, and it is still not clear whether Egypt will have a revolution.  In my view, it hasn’t had one yet.  The Mubarak family attempted a revolution of its own early in the year, replacing the military-business regime that has ruled the country since the 1950s with a dynastic dictatorship.  The military beat that revolution back with the help of popular demonstrations; the Mubaraks are gone, but the military state at the core of Eygptian power since Nasser’s time lives on.

The most recent demonstrations in Tahrir Square are trying to change that.  Both liberal and Islamic groups fear that the army will continue to rule by stuffing the parliament with cronies who have roots in the old regime.  Those fears seem well judged; that is presumably exactly what those who rule Egypt hope to accomplish.

So far, what Turks would call the “deep state” of Egypt — the institutions and individuals who hold the real power, whatever that pretty constitution says — have been able to stave off a direct conflict between the military and the popular forces.  My guess is that both sides know that at this point the military would win a direct battle for power and that public opinion, beyond the hard core of Islamists and liberals, would acquiesce.  Egypt is not yet in a pre-revolutionary state.

 

Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, Chairman of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces of Egypt (Wikimedia)

 

 

What we are seeing in the streets of Cairo is less a revolution seeking to take shape than a haggling process.  The leaders of the Egyptian political parties want to be able to choose all the parliamentary candidates through naming them to parliamentary lists.  That would make party leaders the chief power brokers in a parliamentary regime.  The military wants more MPs to be elected as individuals, weakening the parties and making it easier for the real powers in the country to manipulate the parliamentary process.

The party leaders argue, not without reason, that one of the banes of politics in developing, corruption-prone countries like Egypt is that MPs engage as freelance operators, selling their votes and allegiance for patronage and other favors.  Creating stronger, more ideological parties is a way of fighting that trend.  Mature democracies are characterized by parties that stand for something other than the selfish ambitions of political entrepreneurs; the fight to strengthen parties in Egypt is a fight for modern democracy.

There is some merit in this argument, and Egypt is not the only country where reformers have embraced strong party structures as a way to consolidate democracy.  Giving party leaders the right to select candidates on the party list is a way of accomplishing that; members of parliament will have to vote as their parties wish or face the loss of their seats in the next election.

But party leaders’ motives are mixed.  Power in Egyptian politics for some time to come will be inextricably linked to corruption; no doubt there are some sincere liberal and Islamic activists who intend to use their new power purely for the public good as they see it, but experience suggests that they will be significantly outnumbered by the hacks and timeservers who see political parties as money and patronage machines.

If party leaders have the power to select candidates, it will not so much eliminate corruption from Egyptian politics as centralize it.  You will have to pay large bribes to party leaders to get what you want rather than sprinkling lots of smaller bribes among hungry MPs.  The party barons will keep the reins of patronage and policy firmly in their hands, forcing young and hungry members of parliament to dance attendance and obey as they work their way up the party structures.

A cynic might see the current wave of demonstrations in Egypt as an attempt by the political party leaders to ensure that as much bribe money as possible flows through them in the future. Cynics are usually at least partly right, and it is very likely that some of the party leaders promoting a party list electoral procedure are well aware of the potential consequences.  Others may be young and idealistic now, but if the new system is adopted and takes hold, it is quite likely that over time some of the young leaders will trade idealism for experience in the conventional way and make their peace with some of the less savory consequences of a party list electoral system.

But if cynics are rarely totally wrong, they almost always overstate their case.  The fight over party list representation is not just an empty patronage fight; it is also a way to shift power to those who opposed the Mubarak regime; the leaders of the new political powers contending in Egypt today were mostly the “outs” under the old system.  Building patronage machines under their control is a way to distance post-Mubarak Egyptian politics from the status quo ante.

This is, however, still a negotiation rather than a revolution.  The Egyptian power system is accommodating itself to new realities and the distribution of power within the system is changing.  But so far the changes in Egyptian politics are still fairly superficial — and the still-powerful forces behind the current system have every intention of keeping it that way.  If it comes to that, the military can probably work pretty comfortably through party leaders; unless either the sincere Islamists or the idealistic liberals dominate the new parliament (unlikely), the deep state is likely to find politicians it can work with.

Incremental reform and slow change looks to be where Egypt is headed for the next little while.  That is good news for Egypt’s friends and neighbors — and also good news for most of the Egyptian people.  Revolutions in poor countries without many viable economic strategies are often both ugly and futile.  Without reform, Egypt’s corrupt nexus of government and business will strangle economic growth and radicalize the people; with too much instability the economy will tank as tourists and foreign investors flee.  The good news is that for now at least, Egypt seems to be on the middle path: reforming some of the worst abuses of the Mubarak system but not lurching off in directions that would bring long term harm to its growth prospects.

The bad news is that Egypt remains a heavily populated, resource poor country with a weak educational system and a deeply corrupt political organization.  As I’ve written in earlier posts on this blog, Egypt has been trying — and failing– to modernize since Napoleon’s conquest in the late eighteenth century.  It hasn’t succeeded yet, and so far the current moment of political unrest does not seem capable of changing Egypt’s historical arc.  This is not the first time an idealistic generation of western educated, modern minded, patriotic youth from mostly elite backgrounds has tried to change Egypt; it is unlikely to be the last.

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2011/10/02/will-egypt-have-a-revolution/

Arab Spring breeze reaching to Islamists

ISTANBUL- Hürriyet Daily News
Monday, October 3, 2011

Islamic movements are softening their tone to avoid scaring off potential voters, with many pointing to Turkey and PM Erdoğan’s ‘neo-

Emerging into the open following the overthrow of authoritarian regimes throughout the Arab world, Islamic movements are now wrestling with the idea of how to apply Islamic precepts to societies that are demanding democracy as one of the fruits of the Arab Spring.

Many such movements, such as the Tunisian Islamist Ennahda Party, are preaching a moderate line in an effort to avoid scaring off parts of society that are wary of parties with Muslim roots.

“We are not cut off from our environment … All the values of democracy and modernity are respected by Ennahda. We are a party that can find a balance between modernity and Islam,” Rachid Ghannouchi, the leader of the Ennahda Party, said in a recent interview with Reuters.

Western powers and governments in other Arab states are watching Tunisia’s election closely, worried that democratically elected Islamists might impose strict Islamic law and turn their back on Western allies. But Ghannouchi, who returned to Tunisia from exile in Britain after Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s fall, said Western countries and Tunisian liberals had nothing to fear from a victory for his Ennahda party.

Two issues in particular, women’s equality and liberal moral attitudes, are seen by many Tunisians as a litmus test of how tolerant Ennahda will be if it gains power.

Ghannouchi’s remarks offering a more mild form of Islam came on the same day that the former leader of the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood said he wanted a “democratic” Syria, not an Islamic state to replace the regime of embattled President Bashar al-Assad, Agence France-Presse reported.

“We support the establishment of a modern, civil, democratic state,” Ali al-Bayanouni told a conference organized by the Brookings Doha center in the Qatari capital.

Before the Arab Spring hit countries such as Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, their strongman leaders defended themselves for years as the bulwark preventing their countries from sliding into Islamist hands – an approach which helped them secure baking from Washington and other Western powers wary that their countries could turn into another Iran.

Western powers, however, soon began to support the uprisings and the emergence of a new Arab world. The topic is now dominating talk in Western capitals so much that the European Council’s Parliamentarian Assembly put the Arab Spring at the top of its agenda Monday.

NATO, too, is planning to devote greater attention to the subject, announcing a special summit on the spring on May 21-22 in Chicago.

Indeed, amid growing indications that some in the West are ready to work with the Islamists, one U.S. governmental source said Washington had had limited but direct talks with Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood and was open to working with them.

Turkey an inspiration

Many in the region are pointing toward Turkey as a model for the Islamist parties in the region. Last month, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whose Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party, or AKP, is seen as a trailblazer by many Islamists in the region, staged a tour of the three North African Arab Spring states. Striking a moderate chord, Erdoğan emphasized the concept of “neo-laicism,” noting that while individuals could be religious, states should remain secular.

The comments were controversial among some older members of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, but his comments were well-received elsewhere by a new generation of pious Muslims who are eager to pursue religious-based politics within a democratic, tolerant and secularist framework.

Ultimately, Islamist leaders in the region are keen to stress the varieties of Islam that could be used as a political model.

“If the Islamic spectrum goes from [assassinated al-Qaeda leader Osama] bin Laden to Erdoğan, which of them is Islam?” Ghannouchi asked in a recent debate with a secular critic. “Why are we put in the same place as a model that is far from our thought, like the Taliban or the Saudi model, while there are other successful Islamic models that are close to us, like the Turkish, the Malaysian and the Indonesian models, models that combine Islam and modernity?”

In the end, even the hard-line Saudi model appears to be bending under the weight of the Arab Spring. Last week, King Abdullah decreed that women would be able to participate for the first time in the next local elections in 2015, a measure likely aimed at heading off Arab dissent in the kingdom. The same week he has also overturned a court ruling sentencing a Saudi woman to be lashed 10 times for defying the kingdom’s ban on female drivers.

© 2011 Hurriyet Daily News
URL: www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=arab-spring-breeze-reaching-to-islamists-2011-10-03

Activists in Arab World Vie to Define Islamic State

# The New York Times
Reprints September 29, 2011

By ANTHONY SHADID and DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK

CAIRO — By force of this year’s Arab revolts and revolutions, activists marching under the banner of Islam are on the verge of a reckoning decades in the making: the prospect of achieving decisive power across the region has unleashed an unprecedented debate over the character of the emerging political orders they are helping to build.

Few question the coming electoral success of religious activists, but as they emerge from the shadows of a long, sometimes bloody struggle with authoritarian and ostensibly secular governments, they are confronting newly urgent questions about how to apply Islamic precepts to more open societies with very concrete needs.

In Turkey and Tunisia, culturally conservative parties founded on Islamic principles are rejecting the name “Islamist” to stake out what they see as a more democratic and tolerant vision.

In Egypt, a similar impulse has begun to fracture the Muslim Brotherhood as a growing number of politicians and parties argue for a model inspired by Turkey, where a party with roots in political Islam has thrived in a once-adamantly secular system. Some contend that the absolute monarchy of puritanical Saudi Arabia in fact violates Islamic law.

A backlash has ensued, as well, as traditionalists have flirted with timeworn Islamist ideas like imposing interest-free banking and obligatory religious taxes and censoring irreligious discourse.

The debates are deep enough that many in the region believe that the most important struggles may no longer occur between Islamists and secularists, but rather among the Islamists themselves, pitting the more puritanical against the more liberal.

“That’s the struggle of the future,” said Azzam Tamimi, a scholar and the author of a biography of a Tunisian Islamist, Rachid Ghannouchi, whose party, Ennahda, is expected to dominate elections next month to choose an assembly to draft a constitution. “The real struggle of the future will be about who is capable of fulfilling the desires of a devout public. It’s going to be about who is Islamist and who is more Islamist, rather than about the secularists and the Islamists.”

The moment is as dramatic as any in recent decades in the Arab world, as autocracies crumble and suddenly vibrant parties begin building a new order, starting with elections in Tunisia in October, then Egypt in November. Though the region has witnessed examples of ventures by Islamists into politics, elections in Egypt and Tunisia, attempts in Libya to build a state almost from scratch and the shaping of an alternative to Syria’s dictatorship are their most forceful entry yet into the region’s still embryonic body politic.

“It is a turning point,” said Emad Shahin, a scholar on Islamic law and politics at the University of Notre Dame who was in Cairo.

At the center of the debates is a new breed of politician who has risen from an Islamist milieu but accepts an essentially secular state, a current that some scholars have already taken to identifying as “post Islamist.” Its foremost exemplars are Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party in Turkey, whose intellectuals speak of a shared experience and a common heritage with some of the younger members of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and with the Ennahda Party in Tunisia. Like Turkey, Tunisia faced decades of a state-enforced secularism that never completely reconciled itself with a conservative population.

“They feel at home with each other,” said Cengiz Candar, an Arabic-speaking Turkish columnist. “It’s similar terms of reference, and they can easily communicate with them.”

Mr. Ghannouchi, the Tunisian Islamist, has suggested a common ambition, proposing what some say Mr. Erdogan’s party has managed to achieve: a prosperous, democratic Muslim state, led by a party that is deeply religious but operates within a system that is supposed to protect liberties. (That is the notion, at least — Mr. Erdogan’s critics accuse him of a pronounced streak of authoritarianism.)

“If the Islamic spectrum goes from Bin Laden to Erdogan, which of them is Islam?” Mr. Ghannouchi asked in a recent debate with a secular critic. “Why are we put in the same place as a model that is far from our thought, like the Taliban or the Saudi model, while there are other successful Islamic models that are close to us, like the Turkish, the Malaysian and the Indonesian models, models that combine Islam and modernity?”

The notion of an Arab post-Islamism is not confined to Tunisia. In Libya, Ali Sallabi, the most important Islamist political leader, cites Mr. Ghannouchi as a major influence. Abdel Moneim Abou el-Fotouh, a former Muslim Brotherhood leader who is running for president in Egypt, has joined several new breakaway political parties in arguing that the state should avoid interpreting or enforcing Islamic law, regulating religious taxes or barring a person from running for president based on gender or religion.

A party formed by three leaders of the Brotherhood’s youth wing says that while Egypt shares a common Arab and Islamic culture with the region, its emerging political system should ensure protections of individual freedoms as robust as the West’s. In an interview, one of them, Islam Lotfy, argued that the strictly religious kingdom of Saudi Arabia, where the Koran is ostensibly the constitution, was less Islamist than Turkey. “It is not Islamist; it is dictatorship,” said Mr. Lotfy, who was recently expelled from the Brotherhood for starting the new party.

Egypt’s Center Party, a group that struggled for 16 years to win a license from the ousted government, may go furthest here in elaborating the notion of post-Islamism. Its founder, Abul-Ela Madi, has long sought to mediate between religious and liberal forces, even coming up with a set of shared principles last month. Like the Ennahda Party in Tunisia, he disavows the term “Islamist,” and like other progressive Islamic activists, he describes his group as Egypt’s closest equivalent of Mr. Erdogan’s party.

“We’re neither secular nor Islamist,” he said. “We’re in between.”

It is often heard in Turkey that the country’s political system, until recently dominated by the military, moderated Islamic currents there. Mr. Lotfy said he hoped that Egyptian Islamists would undergo a similar, election-driven evolution, though activists themselves cautioned against drawing too close a comparison. “They went to the streets and they learned that the public was not just worried about the hijab” — the veil — “but about corruption,” he said. “If every woman in Turkey wore the hijab, it would not be a great country. It takes economic development.”

Compared with the situation in Turkey, the stakes of the debates may be even higher in the Arab world, where divided and weak liberal currents pale before the organization and popularity of Islamic activists.

In Syria, debates still rage among activists over whether a civil or Islamic state should follow the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad, if he falls. The emergence in Egypt, Tunisia and Syria of Salafists, the most inflexible currents in political Islam, is one of the most striking political developments in those societies. (“The Koran is our constitution,” goes one of their sayings.)

And the most powerful current in Egypt, still represented by the Muslim Brotherhood, has stubbornly resisted some of the changes in discourse.

When Mr. Erdogan expressed hope for “a secular state in Egypt,” meaning, he explained, a state equidistant from all faiths, Brotherhood leaders immediately lashed out, saying that Mr. Erdogan’s Turkey offered no model for either Egypt or its Islamists.

A Brotherhood spokesman, Mahmoud Ghozlan, accused Turkey of violating Islamic law by failing to criminalize adultery. “In the secularist system, this is accepted, and the laws protect the adulterer,” he said, “But in the Shariah law this is a crime.”

As recently as 2007, a prototype Brotherhood platform sought to bar women or Christians from serving as Egypt’s president and called for a panel of religious scholars to advise on the compliance of any legislation with Islamic law. The group has never disavowed the document. Its rhetoric of Islam’s long tolerance of minorities often sounds condescending to Egypt’s Christian minority, which wants to be afforded equal citizenship, not special protections. The Brotherhood’s new party has called for a special surtax on Muslims to enforce charitable giving.

Indeed, Mr. Tamimi, the scholar, argued that some mainstream groups like the Brotherhood, were feeling the tug of their increasingly assertive conservative constituencies, which still relentlessly call for censorship and interest-free banking.

“Is democracy the voice of the majority?” asked Mohammed Nadi, a 26-year-old student at a recent Salafist protest in Cairo. “We as Islamists are the majority. Why do they want to impose on us the views of the minorities — the liberals and the secularists? That’s all I want to know.”

Anthony Shadid reported from Cairo, and Istanbul and Ankara, Turkey, and David D. Kirkpatrick from Cairo, Tunis and Tripoli, Libya. Heba Afify contributed reporting from Cairo.